Who killed the Electric Car, and similar examples.

[Tuckerfan]

@cosmosdan

I hope you didn’t think that was a serious question.

Given some of the things you’ve said in this thread, I’m not taking any chances.

Then they shouldn’t get one. See how simple and obvious that is? This kind of argument is a bit goofy.

It’s even less goofy than some of the ones you’ve made in this thread.

Please explain to me how leasing them helps them make a profit. This looks like nonsense to me.

Because leasing allows for a lower car payment per month, thus expanding the customer pool. It also means that people will be paying for the car longer than they would if they had a simple five year note. It becomes a perpetual car note.

Have those companies been discussed in this thread? Did I miss it?

I pointed out that the Sparrow’s on it’s third owner, I quoted Leno talking about his Baker electric car (seen any Baker car dealerships lately?), but apparently, that’s not enough for you. Very well. Think, a Norwegian electric car company, has gone bankrupt once so far. Detroit Electric’s long since joined the dodo. Sparrow’s come and gone, but is back for a while. Xebra’s dead. ZAP’s gone bankrupt, but claims it’s back. Toyota exec trashes the “documentary” ‘Who Killed the Electric Car’ and defends GM. In short, the film, to paraphrase Henry Ford, is bunk.

I tried to read through that thread when you first linked to it. I found some of your arguments there to be silly and noticed they were easily picked apart by other posters. I went back and read it last night and there is a good post from some one else that makes sense. I’ll be more specific later.

Coming from you, I’ll take “silly” as a compliment.

Is this a serious question? I said limited markets could still be profitable. Mass production indicates the difference between making 4000 and gearing up to make tens of thousands which would still be a limited market but cut production costs.

Actually, short run productions tend to have higher costs than long productions as you can’t amortize your initial investment over a larger number of units. The only way you can make a short run more profitable than a long run, without a high cost per unit is you use significantly cheaper materials than would be used in a long run. I don’t think that a wickerbodied car would be very popular or meet safety regulations.

Oh yeah I know. I saw your discussion in the other thread with the master mechanic. It was pretty revealing.

If you paid attention, you’ll notice that he kept talking about cars as they are presently designed, and I was talking about cars as they should, IMHO, be designed. Two entirely different things, altogether. If you search the board, you’ll also notice that Rick and I haven’t butted heads on automotive issues since.

One sentance taken out of context. Neither you or I have anyway of knowing what he meant in context. It’s irrelevant anyway since nobody in this thread is arguing what you think he meant.

And if Ed had a problem with it, don’t you think he’d have come out blasting the filmmakers? You, however, are arguing pretty much the same thing as the film, that the electric car would be practical if it weren’t for those evil car makers.

The post in the other thread I found to be the most concise and reasonable was from Sam Stone
It seems reasonable to me that it may have cost GM more to support the vehicles than destroy them. It also occurs to me that considering the limited market they would appeal to the oil companies wouldn’t be all that threatened by them.
This information is also available in the Wikki article.
That doesn’t mean I’m 100% convinced but it seems reasonable. I also noticed this in the Wikki

And part of those costs of keeping the cars on the road would, in fact, be the risk of lawsuits. Ever seen the movie Fight Club? You know that math formula that Ed Norton’s character about the cost/risk benefits of doing a recall on a car? They didn’t make that up for the film. Ask the folks involved in the lawsuit over the Ford Pinto.

So there were waiting lists and positive feedback. I’m not going to assume GM was telling the whole truth about the potential profitability. I know some people hate conspiracy theories but looking at the facts and some of the heinous things done in the name of economics it doesn’t seem outrageous to entertain the possibility that companies would choose more profit over reasonable profit at the expense of the consumer and our environment.

Stranger pretty much handled this one.

I’ve learned what I wanted to from this thread.

IOW, you’re going to stop listening to us.

[cosmosdan]

@Tuckerfan

IOW, you’re going to stop listening to us.

Right. Some have made good points that I’ve taken into consideration. Some not so much. I don’t think there’s anything left to discuss without additional hard data.

[Tuckerfan]

@cosmosdan

Right. Some have made good points that I’ve taken into consideration. Some not so much. I don’t think there’s anything left to discuss without additional hard data.

What “hard data” is there left to provide? The electric vehicle as a practical means of transportation has been pretty much shot down in flames. I’ve seen nothing to indicate it’s a viable technology until someone manages to improve battery technology significantly (and like fusion power, said breakthrough is always “just around the corner” and yet never seems to materialize).

ETA: Check out the science links in my sig, if you want an idea of the current state of battery technology and the like.

[Musicat]

I don’t understand why, even in a limited run production line, a car should cost $80,000 to build. Many of the parts for an electric car are the same as gasoline – fenders, bumpers, windshields, doors, seats, tires, shocks. Other parts such as electric motor assemblies don’t have any exotic technology or large gold-coated parts and development costs are minimal by now. Some parts would actually be less – the transmission isn’t needed, so bye-bye gearbox.

So I can’t see why a car the size of a $20,000 small gas car should cost $80,000 if electric. It doesn’t stand to reason.

[OtakuLoki]

Musicat, I can’t give you an exact answer. I do know that one factor is going to be the costs of establishing a line to produce the vehicle, in the first place. Which, if the production were higher, I agree with cosmosdan, would have the effect of greatly reducing the per unit cost for making the vehicle. What I don’t know is whether the amortization would ever have been enough to make the vehicle profitable for itself.

On reflection, I think that some of it may well be that not only would the production machines be different from those normally used with a gasoline vehicle, but I think they’d represent a number of unique engineering challenges, compared to the normal experience of setting up a new vehicle production line: Handling and installing the batteries we’re talking about would be, not a difficult engineering challenge, but a different sort of one from the norm expected with gasoline vehicles.

Now, a lot of these sorts of start-up costs can be easily amortized through larger production runs. But there are other kinds of start-up costs that aren’t as easily amortized. Right off the top of my head, training comes to mind. Since I’m assuming that at least some of the production machines are unique, the workers will need unique training. Which costs money. And once a worker is trained in a unique technology most companies will then increase their labor costs as a way to protect their investment in the training costs they’ve put into that worker.

Another factor is simply that batteries are expensive. AIUI a 0.5 kg NiHM computer battery will often run ~$200 dollars. retail. Assuming a 100% mark up for that cost, so that the wholesale cost of the battery is really only $100 that still To extrapolate that to the 600 kg battery brings the cost for that one component to approximately $12000. And that’s assuming that the battery for the car can be produced using the same methods and cost that the much smaller laptop battery can be. I think that’s unlikely, because (AIUI) of various size considerations, a battery tends to get more complex, and less efficient, as it gets larger.

And, if GM set up their own battery production facility, that’s another case of tooling up costs that will drive the per unit costs up.

But all this is merely speculation. I don’t have exact figures, and I may be mistaken about specific details. I do believe I have the general case right, though.

[Stranger_On_A_Train]

@Musicat

I don’t understand why, even in a limited run production line, a car should cost $80,000 to build. Many of the parts for an electric car are the same as gasoline – fenders, bumpers, windshields, doors, seats, tires, shocks. Other parts such as electric motor assemblies don’t have any exotic technology or large gold-coated parts and development costs are minimal by now. Some parts would actually be less – the transmission isn’t needed, so bye-bye gearbox.

So I can’t see why a car the size of a $20,000 small gas car should cost $80,000 if electric. It doesn’t stand to reason.

Electric motors require copper windings and rare earth magnets. Batteries (even lead acid) are far more expensive than a steel fuel tank. And the you have to figure in development costs, too. If they only build three or four thousand units, the fixed development and tooling costshave to be amortized across that limited production. And despite your notion that “exotic technologies” aren’t required, you can’t simply piece together an electric car out of off-the-shelf components; GM spent a lot of money on EV1 development, including development of current regulation and regenerative breaking systems, that could last tens of thousand of miles of road operation.

Stranger

[Tuckerfan]

@Musicat

I don’t understand why, even in a limited run production line, a car should cost $80,000 to build. Many of the parts for an electric car are the same as gasoline – fenders, bumpers, windshields, doors, seats, tires, shocks. Other parts such as electric motor assemblies don’t have any exotic technology or large gold-coated parts and development costs are minimal by now. Some parts would actually be less – the transmission isn’t needed, so bye-bye gearbox.

So I can’t see why a car the size of a $20,000 small gas car should cost $80,000 if electric. It doesn’t stand to reason.

The things that make an electric vehicle expensive are, in no particular order: Start up costs, batteries, electronics, and weight saving materials. The EV1 had a sophisticated plastic body to save weight, and all other components were designed to minimize the weight. It doesn’t get cheap when you’re redesigning the stereo to save a couple of ounces, and the seats, and the wiper motor, and on and on. Then you discover that the vehicle’s still too heavy, and have to go back, look at everything to see where you can save a few ounces. The Tesla roadster has a carbonfiber body, which is extremely light, but also expensive. Another thing you have to do, is destructively test prototypes to see what happens to them in a crash. Not only are you wanting to make sure that the passengers don’t get killed in a 5 MPH crash, but you also have to see what’s going to happen to the vehicle in a crash. If the car catches fire, how easy is it going to be to put out (Important safety tip: Don’t use magnesium, even though it’s a very light metal. When it catches fire, there’s no practical way to extinguish it. None.)? Are the firefighters going to need special protective gear when they try to put the fire out?

The batteries used aren’t the typical lead-acid type you can buy at Wallyworld. They’re expensive LIon ones.

Electronics. In addition to the regenerative braking system and the current regulation system Stranger mentioned, there’s also the software needed for all that (programmers don’t come cheap), and you’re going to want to use low-draw electronics to control everything, and those aren’t cheap, either.

Start up costs are a real bitch. In addition to the tooling, you’ve got to source your materials, train factory workers, train service personnel and your salesforce. Given that GM’s got some of the highest labor costs in the industry, this is a pretty major factor.

Finally, I’ve got a book around here which tells you how to build your own electric car. It shows you how to convert a Ford Ranger pick up truck to electric. The cost was several thousand dollars, even using surplus/conventional items, the range was only about 60 miles, and the truck was useless as a truck, since you filled the entire bed with batteries.

[Tuckerfan]

According to this site, it’s a “boom time” for electric car manufacturers. So if the electric car is truly viable, then we should be seeing them pop up all over the place very soon.