# Who thinks the Electoral Vote will be a landslide? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 18, 2004, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428 "2004-08-18T17:54:51Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2004, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/21 "2004-08-18T21:52:15Z")
> [@seosamh](#): > > Sorry, but will it actually make any difference who wins? What a great question for Great Debates. How’s about you bring it up over there instead of hijacking this thread? ---
**Author:** ![seosamh](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ce7236/32.png) [@seosamh](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/seosamh)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2004, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/22 "2004-08-18T23:19:43Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > What a great question for Great Debates. How’s about you bring it up over there instead of hijacking this thread? Sorry. Mea culpa. George to win by 67 states. ---
**Author:** ![JohnM](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/848f3c/32.png) [@JohnM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnM)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2004, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/23 "2004-08-18T23:32:40Z")
Let me start by saying that this long before the election, polling numbers are not necessarily a good predictor. But just for fun, let’s go to the numbers anyway. The [Electoral Vote Predictor](http://electoral-vote.com/) site collects the available state polls, and currently shows Kerry at 317. If we discard any poll with a margin of less than 5% (reasonable margin of error), then Kerry stands at 236 and Bush at 157. But if we try the gedanken experiment of only discarding polls with a margin of less than 4%, then we get Kerry at 269 and Bush unchanged. It’s a long time until November, but if the election were tomorrow, I think Pres. Bush would be heading home to Crawford. ---
**Author:** ![NDP](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ndp/32/55_2.png) [@NDP](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NDP)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2004, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/24 "2004-08-18T23:36:23Z")
What about the effect the Bush-Kerry debates will have? I think a lot of people are waiting to see how each candidate performs before they make a choice. ---
**Author:** ![AskNott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asknott/32/5790_2.png) [@AskNott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AskNott)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2004, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/25 "2004-08-18T23:56:01Z")
First, know that my election predictions are always wrong. I think it’ll be Bush again. Same score, too. **5-4** :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Jurph](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/50afbb/32.png) [@Jurph](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jurph)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/26 "2004-08-19T00:05:48Z")
> [@JohnM](#): > > Let me start by saying that this long before the election, polling numbers are not necessarily a good predictor. But just for fun, let’s go to the numbers anyway. > > The [Electoral Vote Predictor](http://electoral-vote.com/) site collects the available state polls, and currently shows Kerry at 317. If we discard any poll with a margin of less than 5% (reasonable margin of error), then Kerry stands at 236 and Bush at 157. But if we try the gedanken experiment of only discarding polls with a margin of less than 4%, then we get Kerry at 269 and Bush unchanged. > > It’s a long time until November, but if the election were tomorrow, I think Pres. Bush would be heading home to Crawford. [This gentleman](http://www.dalythoughts.com/ecb.htm) seems to have a much more methodical approach to calculating the tally, and also subscribes to several polls that are not made public domain until 3 weeks after they’ve been closed. He uses the “old” convention for Red and Blue states, but aside from that seems like he does a pretty sound estimate. He also shows that it’s close, but currently slipping towards Kerry. But he does give some historical perspective: this time four years ago, it was close and slipping towards Bush, and we all know that Bush eventually lost. One other point to consider: in a two-candidate race, a 5% margin of error applies to _each candidate_. A 50-50 split with a 5% margin of error means that it could be 45-55, or a 10-point race. ---
**Author:** ![Abbie\_Carmichael](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/49beb7/32.png) [@Abbie\_Carmichael](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Abbie_Carmichael)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/27 "2004-08-19T02:56:00Z")
EV margin by 100? No way. I predict another squeaker, but not as squeaky as 2000. Bush is gonna win again, and I think he’ll take the popular vote too, but not by much. The Dems are pretty desperate so I could see another Supreme Court mess. They’re going to demand recounts in any county where they even remotely think they can gain ground. ---
**Author:** ![NurseCarmen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/5daacb/32.png) [@NurseCarmen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NurseCarmen)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/28 "2004-08-19T03:31:57Z")
If there is a big push for the black vote that actually gets some traction (maybe banging the drum on the 2000 Florida disenfranchisement) in October, I could see that skewing results. Historically, they haven’t been very pollable, and may be showing up as unlikely voters on the stats. In the past, there was pessimism about two rich white guys asking them for their vote. I think that at the least, we can count on Blacks who voted in 2000 to vote in 2004. Quite a statment considering their historic turnouts. ---
**Author:** ![Rick](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/9f8e36/32.png) [@Rick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/29 "2004-08-19T03:55:40Z")
While I do care who wins, what I care about even more is that I hope that the election is not another one like the last one. If have to sit through the Dems and Republicans both screaming that the other guys are trying to steal the election, I can see a high powered rifle and a bell tower in my future. 😃 I mean I will flat flip out and go postal. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/30 "2004-08-19T03:58:24Z")
I think Kerry’s pretty much guaranteed a popular vote victory. How many people do you know who voted against Bush in 2000 plan on voting for him in 2004? And Bush lost the popular vote in 2000. ---
**Author:** ![B.Serum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/b.serum/32/14266_2.png) [@B.Serum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/B.Serum)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/31 "2004-08-19T04:30:07Z")
It will be a squeaker, but [pollingreport.com is favoring Kerry.](http://pollingreport.com/wh2004.htm) ---
**Author:** ![wolfman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a8b319/32.png) [@wolfman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfman)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 5:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/32 "2004-08-19T05:09:21Z")
There is almost always a bump of some size after the convention, And with the Rep. convention still to be held, there’ll be at least a short term swing back toward Bush I figure. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/33 "2004-08-19T05:22:34Z")
Bush 53%. ---
**Author:** ![tygerbryght](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/a9a28c/32.png) [@tygerbryght](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tygerbryght)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/34 "2004-08-19T05:33:09Z")
> [@seosamh](#): > > Sorry. Mea culpa. George to win by 67 states. Uhhhhh. Quick question: What sources lead you to this conclusion? Especially from abroad? Not attacking, just asking. 🙂 I’m with those who say it’ll be a squeaker. And I think some surprising states will flip (in both directions) from their expected choices. There is an enormous pool of frustration and anger, and most people are lined up with their “gut” emotions and political philosophies. Neither Bush nor Kerry is a particularly inspiring speaker, so the number of votes either of them can sway is limited. Edwards could make a big difference for Kerry, but it’s too soon to really know, and may remain too soon until November 3rd. ---
**Author:** ![Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19adc/32.png) [@Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/35 "2004-08-19T06:35:06Z")
Thanks to **Jurph** and **JohnM** for those links. Coming from a parliamentary democracy, it was really tough to understand exactly why the popular vote means squat in U.S. elections until I sussed out the electoral vote, but I’ve yet to go looking for something that analyzes the U.S. state-by-state. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/36 "2004-08-19T10:14:41Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > Bush 53%. I can probably manage another bet, Sam. What’s the US equivalent of $50 Canadian these days? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 10:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/37 "2004-08-19T10:16:54Z")
> [@Barbarian](#): > > Thanks to **Jurph** and **JohnM** for those links. Coming from a parliamentary democracy, it was really tough to understand exactly why the popular vote means squat in U.S. elections until I sussed out the electoral vote, but I’ve yet to go looking for something that analyzes the U.S. state-by-state. I’ve been contemplating some sort of link-dump thread in GD, to have a central clearinghouse on the board for election-related links. Maybe this weekend. ---
**Author:** ![Early\_Out](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Early\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Early_Out)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/38 "2004-08-19T13:13:20Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > What’s the US equivalent of $50 Canadian these days? That’s about $3.98, right? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![lno](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a8b319/32.png) [@lno](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lno)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/39 "2004-08-19T13:28:36Z")
[http://www.electoral-vote.com/](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) is slanted towards Kerry; I suggest comparing its conclusions with [http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html](http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html) which is slanted towards Bush, yet still projects a Kerry victory with 327/211 electoral, and 51.3%/46.9% popular. The bias on that latter site is evident. Consider the link “21 Reasons Why Bush Will Win” and the bullet points on states won/lost. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2004, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428/40 "2004-08-19T13:42:41Z")
Yeah, that’s one of the things that’s making me feel good about that bet. With 2.5 months to go Kerry’s in the driver’s seat. Of course…so was Dukakis. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-thinks-the-electoral-vote-will-be-a-landslide/260428.md?page=3)