# Who used poison gas in Syria? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 2, 2013, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836 "2013-09-02T22:44:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2013, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/21 "2013-09-03T10:26:01Z")
Assad on the balance of probabilities. But if the USA and the UK want me to beleive their evidence I want it independently investigated and verified. Hand it all over to the NYT, the WP, the Times in London and The Guardian, the BBC and the UN. Let them check it out. I will not, now or ever, ‘trust’ any government on these matters again. Especially when they continually look our reperesentatives in the face and lie and obfuscate on other security matters. Governments need to reflect and realise this is what happens when by their own actions they forfeit our trust. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2013, 11:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/22 "2013-09-03T11:09:19Z")
German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) says Assad was behind the gas attack. Intercepted call from senior Hezbollah representative to the Iran embassy. Hezbollah saying Assad had thought it was the final battler for Damascus, had gone nuts and made a big mistake. ([BND captures evidence of use of poison gas by Assad regime from](http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/syrien-bnd-faengt-beleg-fuer-giftgaseinsatz-durch-assad-regime-ab-a-919965.html)) ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2013, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/23 "2013-09-03T12:38:24Z")
> [@Rune](#): > > German Federal Intelligence Service (BND) says Assad was behind the gas attack. Intercepted call from senior Hezbollah representative to the Iran embassy. Hezbollah saying Assad had thought it was the final battler for Damascus, had gone nuts and made a big mistake. ([BND captures evidence of use of poison gas by Assad regime from](http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/syrien-bnd-faengt-beleg-fuer-giftgaseinsatz-durch-assad-regime-ab-a-919965.html)) For those who can’t read German, and don’t have a browser with automatic translation, here’s an excerpt from that article: [QUOTE=Chrome Translater, German to English] … Schindler also presented a previously unknown Proof: For the BND heard an interview of a senior representative of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, the Iranian embassy from. Here is the official Hezbollah, which is traditionally on the side of Assad and militarily supported him, have given to the use of poison gas. The official had said Assad had gone through the nerves to the command for the use of poison gas he had made ​​a big mistake. The new BND findings could win in the coming days to explosiveness. The U.S. has reported only in abstract, intelligence agencies had intercepted communications after the attack within the regime, which confirmed the use of poison gas, and from which speak concern about a possible review by the UN inspectors then present. The intercepted phone call from the BND could accumulate this evidence puzzle of western critical services. [/QUOTE] ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ecks](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/bcef8e/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ecks](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ecks)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2013, 2:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/24 "2013-09-03T14:03:52Z")
A commentator on NPR last week noted that given the strategic situation, the use of gas made sense- The area was rebel held, but was resisting ground forces. Air attacks had made a difference, but the rebels had recently gotten anti-air missiles and had shot down two government planes. Assad can’t risk his planes, but can’t take the area conventionally- so… ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2013, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/25 "2013-09-03T15:11:24Z")
A couple of points. First, the rebels are not a monolithic group. There are plenty of factions within the overall rubric of ‘Syrian Rebels’, and if related history like the Afghan Civil War is a guide, these factions will turn on each other as soon as Assad is gone. So one group gassing another group of rebels isn’t that farfetched. Particularly if doing so can attract a great power to come in on your side. Second, Sarin gas specifically [doesn’t last very long once you create it.](http://www.fas.org/irp/gulf/cia/960715/72569.htm) The previous link notes that this was especially true if the sarin precursors were impure and noted that Iraq stocks degraded a few weeks after manufacture. I imagine the rebels, if they manufactured the gas themselves, weren’t going to have better luck that Saddam. Sarin does last much longer if it’s in a “binary” form; that is, split into two compounds that are mixed after firing to create the nerve gas. This is more technically difficult to manufacture and weaponize. Other variants of Sarin, like [cyclosarin](http://cbwinfo.com/Chemical/Nerve/GF.shtml), have longer shelf lives, but are also [more persistent](http://www.nrt.org/production/NRT/NRTWeb.nsf/AllAttachmentsByTitle/A-1043WMDGF(Cyclosarin)QRG/$File/GF_QRG_Final_(07-28-11).pdf?OpenElement). I.e., they should have poisoned any inadequately protected first responders to the attack. [Sarin is relatively non-persistent](http://www.nrt.org/production/NRT/NRTWeb.nsf/AllAttachmentsByTitle/A-1041WMDGB(Sarin)QRG/$File/GB_QRG_Final%20(07-28-11).pdf?OpenElement). All this is to say that, if it were the rebels gassing themselves, I don’t think the rebels made the gas. My guess is that the weapons originated from one of: the Syrian government, the Soviets, or possibly, some of Saddam Hussein’s old stuff. Though, as noted above, I don’t know if Hussein’s chemical weapons were still viable after all this time. One possible means of confirming who attacked whom, is if there were any radar tracks of the missiles or shells used to deliver the gas. Damascus is only 40 miles from the Israeli border. An AWACS should have be able to resolve even shell-sized targets and determine from where they were launched. I’d be surprised if either the Israelis or the U.S. didn’t have one up keeping an eye on things. If the powers that be were quick about it, I would guess they’d have the time to get a stealthy drone over to the launch sites and thereby get photographic evidence of just who launched the chemical rockets or shells. More likely than assuming that a Hezbollah senior commander is going to do anything silly like talk to the Syrian leadership on an easily interceptable electronic device. That, or that the Israelis, Germans, or U.S. would admit to being able to intercept Syrian landline communications. I was very surprised to read that news was leaked that the U.S. was able to i.d. the content of specific communications within the Syrian C3I. Seems like the sort of methods and capabilities information that ought to be rightfully kept classified. ---
**Author:** ![Gack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecccb3/32.png) [@Gack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gack)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/26 "2013-09-04T03:03:38Z")
Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul are now both calling the gas attack a false flag operation. These are IMO the most likely politicians to tell the truth about the middle east. Link: > **[Syria: Rebel Groups, Not Assad, Behind Chemical Attacks Says Pat Buchanan](https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/pat-buchanan-syria-chemical-false-flag-saudi-502830)** > > Former White House adviser adds his voice to growing chorus blaming al-Qaida for atrocity. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/27 "2013-09-04T03:08:08Z")
> [@Gack](#): > > Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul are now both calling the gas attack a false flag operation. These are IMO the most likely politicians to tell the truth about the middle east. That’s sarcasm, correct? ---
**Author:** ![Gack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecccb3/32.png) [@Gack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gack)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/28 "2013-09-04T03:12:11Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > That’s sarcasm, correct? Hardly, I should have said the ONLY national figures who will tell 1/2 the truth about what is happening in the middle east. Recall that Buchanan was instrumental in getting J. Demjanuk released after an Israeli court had, with the help of 5 eyewitnesses, convicted him of being a guard at Treblinka, when the reality was he had never set foot in the camp. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/29 "2013-09-04T03:15:36Z")
> [@Gack](#): > > Hardly, I should have said the ONLY national figures who will tell 1/2 the truth about what is happening in the middle east. Ah. Well, thanks for the response. That clears up a few things and allows me to properly categorize this thread going forward. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/30 "2013-09-04T03:17:50Z")
> [@Gack](#): > > Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul are now both calling the gas attack a false flag operation. These are IMO the most likely politicians to tell the truth about the middle east. > > Link: > [Syria: Rebel Groups, Not Assad, Behind Chemical Attacks Says Pat Buchanan | IBTimes UK](http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/502830/20130901/pat-buchanan-syria-chemical-false-flag-saudi.htm) I note that your linked site also has a story titled “Hezbollah Wiretaps Reveal Assad Ordered Sarin Attacks after ‘Losing his Nerve’” So, which is it? ---
**Author:** ![Gack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecccb3/32.png) [@Gack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gack)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/31 "2013-09-04T03:22:10Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > Ah. > > Well, thanks for the response. That clears up a few things and allows me to properly categorize this thread going forward. Glad to help. Inquiring minds want to know, how would you ‘properly categorize this thread’ ? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/32 "2013-09-04T03:26:55Z")
> [@Gack](#): > > Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul are now both calling the gas attack a false flag operation. These are IMO the most likely politicians to tell the truth about the middle east. They’re both kooks, and neither is any position to know what’s going on in Syria. ---
**Author:** ![Gack](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/ecccb3/32.png) [@Gack](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gack)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/33 "2013-09-04T03:32:33Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > They’re both kooks, and neither is any position to know what’s going on in Syria. I don’t think name calling, e.g. ‘kooks’, is generally regarded as persuasive argument. Am I wrong? Buchanan’s reasoning was the same as Tariq Ali’s in the OP, that is, Assad would not launch a chemical attack (15 km from the UN investigators he just invited into the country) knowing that it would cross Obama’s red line and result in an attack by the US on Syria. The reasoning seems sound to me. The extraordinary thing to me is that, despite a history of US false flag attacks going back at least to WW I, I don’t recall ever hearing a national figure use the phrase. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/34 "2013-09-04T03:50:53Z")
> [@Gack](#): > > Buchanan’s reasoning was the same as Tariq Ali’s in the OP, that is, Assad would not launch a chemical attack (15 km from the UN investigators he just invited into the country) knowing that it would cross Obama’s red line and result in an attack by the US on Syria. The reasoning seems sound to me. I bet it does seem sound to you, but it’s terrible reasoning that can be used to justify any circuitous conclusion no matter what the facts say. And yes, it’s possible to think of reasons Assad would have gone ahead and used the weapons anyway: he might not have believed the U.S. would invade, or he might have thought he was going to lose if he didn’t. > [@](#): > > The extraordinary thing to me is that, despite a history of US false flag attacks going back at least to WW I, I don’t recall ever hearing a national figure use the phrase. Some conspiracy nuts have risen to great prominence by saying everything is a false flag attack. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/35 "2013-09-04T03:57:39Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ecks](#): > > A commentator on NPR last week noted that given the strategic situation, the use of gas made sense- The area was rebel held, but was resisting ground forces. Air attacks had made a difference, but the rebels had recently gotten anti-air missiles and had shot down two government planes. Assad can’t risk his planes, but can’t take the area conventionally- so… wait what? NPR had someone on that said this? ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/36 "2013-09-04T03:59:15Z")
> [@Gack](#): > > Glad to help. Inquiring minds want to know, how would you ‘properly categorize this thread’ ? I’m going to go with ‘Conspiracy Theory non-sense’ for 1000, Alex. It’s a daily double! ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/37 "2013-09-04T05:18:42Z")
> [@Gack](#): > > Recall that Buchanan was instrumental in getting J. Demjanuk released after an Israeli court had, with the help of 5 eyewitnesses, convicted him of being a guard at Treblinka, when the reality was he had never set foot in the camp. For those not old enough to remember the 80s there were few things more enjoyable than watching a red-faced Pat Buchanan say of Ivan Demjanuk, “He wasn’t ‘Ivan the Terrible’ he was 'Ivan the Bloody”. Beyond that, Paul is the guy who thinks the US Constitution would allow the state of Alabama to arrest people for masturbating and engaging in adultery while Buchanan is the guy who’s a fan of Francisco Franco and ranted about how seeing street musicians “playing bongo drums”. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/38 "2013-09-04T11:01:41Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I’m going to go with ‘Conspiracy Theory non-sense’ for 1000, Alex. > > It’s a daily double! It is not unreasonable to expect actual proof from habitual liars and we have been nothing of the sort that adds up to more than ‘trust us’. Well, no. When it comes to being asked to support killing people we don’t trust you. Not one bit. Now while I think the balance of probabilites suggest it was Assad that isn’t good enough. It is not unreasonable to think that in the chaos of the civil war various rebel factions have got their hands on the stuff. It’s not unreasonable to think that that universal friend of terrorists, Saudi Arabia might not have slipped a faction one. As [suggested here](http://landdestroyer.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/syrians-in-ghouta-claim-saudi-supplied_29.html). > [@](#): > > This article is a collaboration between Dale Gavlak reporting for Mint Press News (also of the Associated Press) and Yahya Ababneh. > > Ghouta, Syria — As the machinery for a U.S.-led military intervention in Syria gathers pace following last week’s chemical weapons attack, the U.S. and its allies may be targeting the wrong culprit. > > Interviews with people in Damascus and Ghouta, a suburb of the Syrian capital, where the humanitarian agency Doctors Without Borders said at least 355 people had died last week from what it believed to be a neurotoxic agent, appear to indicate as much. > [@](#): > > However, from numerous interviews with doctors, Ghouta residents, rebel fighters and their families, a different picture emerges. Many believe that certain rebels received chemical weapons via the Saudi intelligence chief, Prince Bandar bin Sultan, and were responsible for carrying out the dealing gas attack. > > “My son came to me two weeks ago asking what I thought the weapons were that he had been asked to carry,” said Abu Abdel-Moneim, the father of a rebel fighting to unseat Assad, who lives in Ghouta. > > Abdel-Moneim said his son and 12 other rebels were killed inside of a tunnel used to store weapons provided by a Saudi militant, known as Abu Ayesha, who was leading a fighting battalion. The father described the weapons as having a “tube-like structure” while others were like a “huge gas bottle.” > Ghouta townspeople said the rebels were using mosques and private houses to sleep while storing their weapons in tunnels. [This article](http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/02/debunking-obamas-assessment-of-the-syrian-governments-use-of-chemical-weapons/) gives a good account of why there is a need to be skeptical. > [@](#): > > The report also outlines the way in which Washington arrived at its conclusion that Assad carried out the attacks. The document states: > > ``` > We assess with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out the chemical weapons attack against opposition elements in the Damascus suburbs on August 21. We assess that the scenario in which the opposition executed the attack on August 21 is highly unlikely. The body of information used to make this assessment includes intelligence pertaining to the regime’s preparations for this attack and its means of delivery, multiple streams of intelligence about the attack itself and its effect, our post-attack observations, and the differences between the capabilities of the regime and the opposition. > > ``` > > In analyzing the above excerpt, it should be immediately clear to anyone who has been following events in Syria closely, that this conclusion is based on faulty premises and outright lies. First, the idea that it is “highly unlikely” that the chemical attack was carried out by the opposition is an impossible assertion to make given that there is abundant evidence that the “rebels” carried out chemical attacks previously. As the widely circulated video showing rebels mounting chemical weapons onto artillery shells demonstrates, not only do they have the capability and delivery system, they have a significant supply of chemicals, certainly enough to have carried out the attack. Moreover, the multiple massacres carried out by Nusra Front and other extremist rebel factions demonstrates that such groups have no compunction whatsoever about killing innocent civilians en masse. There are jihadist factions in the rebellion linked to Al Q. These people have no problem bombing civilians and it is entirely plausible that they would stage such an incident. [Obama’s Big Lie](http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/09/03/obamas-and-kerrys-big-lie/) > [@](#): > > The document released on the White House web site to “prove” to the American people that the Syrian government had used poison gas — allegedly the neurotoxin Sarin — to kill hundreds of civilians, is so flawed and lacking in real proof that if it were being used to make a case against a terrorist group it would be too weak to justify an indictment. > > For starters, there is no documentary proof offered. Only assertions about evidence which is never actually shown. No maps. No satellite or aerial spy-plane or drone surveillance photos. No identified witnesses with verifiable expertise. All there is in this document is a narrative with assertions like: “The United States Government assesses with high confidence that the Syrian government carried out a chemical weapons attack in the Damascus suburbs on August 21, 2013.” > [@](#): > > Finally, under the heading “The Attack,” the administration writes that: “Multiple streams of intelligence indicate that the regime executed a rocket and artillery attack against the Damascus suburbs in the early hours of August 21.” That fact in and of itself would mean nothing as Syrian forces have been using tactical rocket fire and artillery against rebel forces for two years running. But then the White House writes, ominously, that these rocket and artillery attacks included “rocket launches from regime controlled territory early in the morning, approximately 90 minutes before the first report of a chemical attack appeared in social media.” > > Let’s think about that a moment. 90 minutes is a long time. We’re talking about rockets that land within seconds of launch, and explode on impact. In an age of cell phones and other “social media,” why would it take 90 minutes from that particular rocket launching event for a “first report” of a chemical attack? Is that remotely credible? Why didn’t the administration at least address that peculiar time lapse? While I believe that Assad did do it there is more than reasonable doubt that the case is proven. This is a murky world where conspiracies can easily be real. Who knows what that snake Bandar is up to as he leads the Saudi intervention effort. If my government wants my approval for them to go off killing people then I’m going to ask, in the light of their usual approach to the truth: ‘Show me and show me real good. No hand-waving, no coyness, no conspicuously unaddressed questions about gaps or oddities in your case.’ Being a reasonable guy I’m prepared to accept a thoroughly researched report by independent journalists who have seen and tested theevidence you think you have. But no - a whole bunch of ‘you can trust us this time, take our word for it’ handwaving - is not going to cut it. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/39 "2013-09-04T13:08:38Z")
[QUOTE=tagos] It is not unreasonable to expect actual proof from habitual liars and we have been nothing of the sort that adds up to more than ‘trust us’. [/QUOTE] You didn’t actually read the series of posts I was responding too, did you? Or do you REALLY think that Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul are the ‘most likely politicians to tell the truth about the middle east’?? 😛 ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2013, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836/40 "2013-09-04T13:50:27Z")
> [@XT](#): > > You didn’t actually read the series of posts I was responding too, did you? Or do you REALLY think that Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul are the ‘most likely politicians to tell the truth about the middle east’?? 😛 You were in your own words addressing the thread and I responded to that. And frankly - those 2 idiots you name have not yet lied the USA or the UK into a war so while their credibility might be zero that is still way higher than the US and UK Govts in my book. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-used-poison-gas-in-syria/667836.md?page=3)