I think it’ll end with a whimper. The structure of the UK administration just doesn’t lend itself to the level of drama that happened in the US, The PM has power but in practical terms nothing like the amount of the US president. A change of leader for the party in power has been the norm in the UK for quite some time. The key difference being that it is far more the party that is elected rather than the leader of that party.
Well, the drama is unlikely to be public. If Johnson refuses to resign, the Conservative party will have to change its rules to force him out. He survived a recent confidence vote and it is year before he can be challenged again. If the opposition to him is strong enough, the party might force a rule change to bring that forward.
It is all internal party politics that has little to do with government or constitution. Much of it will be hidden from public consideration. Those senior ministers who have resigned are not going quietly. They will be mounting campaigns within the party to find a way of getting him out. They are set against the Boris loyalists who still proclaim him to be a vote winning asset to the party. Often not because they actually think that, but because the PM controls ministerial appointments and expressions of loyalty is an essential job qualification. Personal ambition often trumps principle. The secret is to appear loyal but responsible and competent, yet position yourself quite ready to pivot should the pyramid fracture and an opening appear at the top.
This is a once in a political career opportunity and they all know it. Timing is everything. That very senior ministers have resigned means there is blood in the water. Johnson and his party whips may be about to lose control. The political press reporting is becoming febrile and I expect there will be insider leaks about more scandalous goings-on within the court of King Boris.
The country, meanwhile, has to sit and wait while this is sorted out. Enduring a government run by a party that that is weak and poorly led during a time when the country is facing economic and international crises.
Actually, there was a nationwide referendum on the EU in June 1975. A long time ago, yes, even an eternity in political terms, but it’s not true that the British people were “never asked.”
No there wasn’t.
There was a referendum on the “EC” as it was then, not the “EU” as it became and is now.
The people were asked about a vastly different entity in 1975, they were not asked at any point after that whether they were happy with what it became.
I think they should have been and had that happened all of this could have been avoided.
Unless they change the rules.
I think we are now at 15 actual ministers and in total 33 government-payroll resignations in a single day, which is a record as this guy from the Institute for Government will attest.
Tim Durrant on Twitter: “10 minute updates… my to-do list for today is weeping in the corner https://t.co/sH9UfSuzMF” / Twitter
We are rapidly getting to the point where Boris can’t in fact form a government. Given that being PM is essentially defined by one’s ability to form a government, it feels like the writing should be on the wall. But the rumours are that Boris is saying he’ll call a general election rather than quit, and not only that, but he’ll use his party leader powers to deselect people on his shitlist (meaning they couldn’t stand for election as Conservatives) which is absolute burn it all down megalomania.
Constitutionally of course, the PM only ever asks the monarch for a general election. A request always adhered to but there are accepted principles under which a monarch could refuse . Fun fact, because of the majesties of our unwritten constitution, these principles were first laid out in an anonymous letter to the Times.
Yeah, the 1-year safety rule is really no protection at all. If enough people want to vote you out, they can vote to change the rule.
Because if there’s one thing the party faithful (in any party, but especially in the Tory local associations) really resent, it’s head office treading on their toes when it comes to selecting a candidate. It would be one thing for HQ to take someone like ArseChris Pincher off the approved candidates list, quite another to do so to someone in good standing with their constituency association. That’s a recipe for, at the very least, substantial numbers of activists finding something more important to do than canvassing/leafletting and so on, not to mention loyal voters staying at home - or even voting for someone else.
It is all fun and games from here on in, thanks in no small part to having an unwritten constitution and relying on precedent and the perceived will of the party.
Someone will certainly be saying to Boris that he is sailing perilously close to Trump levels of clinging on and though much has been made of their common buffoonery they are really very, very different people. I don’t sense that Boris will want to “burn it down” at any cost, nor do I think he retains the power to compel others to help him do so. I give it a week at most.
With this many resignations all at once, it looks to me like he’s already lost control of his party. The question now is just how long it takes Bloody Stupid to recognize that.
Something slightly weird happening right now: Boris is answering questions from the Liaison Committee (the chairs of the varying House of Commons Committees on Defence, Health, Trade etc.) To their credit they’re sticking to policy Qs but it does mean he’s saying things like “I will look into that and get back to you” which in the circumstances everyone is to be commended for not laughing at.
They are interpreting it as “As soon as I know who is left to look into it, I’ll get back to you”
Eh, I think even the “I’ll get back to you” is raising a few eyebrows, at least insofar as it implies an incredibly quick response.
Someone comparing this to being given a last meal on death row.
At the bottom of the BBC’s live coverage they are running a government minister resignations ticker.
Right, as opposed to the absolute certainty and complete lack of ambiguity under the written US Constitution after the 2020 presidential election.
Referendums have been misused in the UK to resolve internal party disputes. Other countries nearby do it far better. Ireland has a good track record of using them to ask difficult moral and ethical questions of the electorate. The Scottish Independence referendum was also well run and the public were well informed about a difficult constitutional question with lots of economic and political consequences. They were taken seriously. In the UK they were used as a convenient political device to resolve an internal party dispute. This was highly irresponsible and Cameron paid the price leaving a mess that neither May nor Johnson has been able deal with. Brexit has lots of unresolved issues that are being ignored and simply sour trade relationships.
The UK is a representative democracy. We pay MPs to sit in Parliament and debate the issues and decide policy. Referendums have no constitutional role. They are public votes that are legally only to provide advice but are easily hijacked by populists and politicised. The UK public have been utterly bewildered by Brexit. The simple question posed simply disrupted politics and raised many more questions for which there are no easy answers.
The Brexit vote was a farce. It was run over a few weeks like a general election campaign and few voters had a grasp of the issues. Boris ran a leave campaign after concluding it was amenable to his populist rhetoric. Its purpose was to get him into power on the promise he would ‘Get Brexit Done’. This was populism in action. Emotional slogans from a personality politician who would assertively deliver simple solutions to complex and difficult problems. Brexit for Boris was the equivalent of Trumps Border Wall.
While there is nothing like the deep divisions that the US experienced under Trump. Boris Johnson will leave a legacy of an incompetent political leader interested only in holding the privileges of high office without taking the responsibility to deliver the solutions the country needs.
The next PM has a monumental task to deal with. International trade relationships to be rebuilt, huge borrowing because of the Covid lockdowns is going to put all public spending under pressure, a fast developing international economic crisis, caused by Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, that will lead to inflation and high interest rates. Then an immigration policy that manages to be both inhumane to refugees and responsible for a huge skills shortage that is undermining the economy.
The UK has not had a competent political leadership since the Blair/Brown years. The UK political parties are all in a dire state and not producing politicians worth voting for.
Here’s the current list of Borexits, courtesy Al Jazera:
Who has resigned so far?
On Tuesday:
- Rishi Sunak, finance minister
- Sajid Javid, health secretary
- Bim Afolami, Conservative Party vice chair
- Saqib Bhatti, parliamentary private secretary (PPS) to secretary of state for health and social care
- Jonathan Gullis, PPS to secretary of state for Northern Ireland
- Nicola Richards, PPS for Department of Transport
- Alex Chalk, solicitor general for England and Wales
- Virginia Crosbie, PPS to the Wales Office
- Theo Clarke, trade envoy to Kenya
- Andrew Murrison, trade envoy to Morocco
On Wednesday:
- John Glen, financial services minister
- Victoria Atkins, junior home office minister
- Stuart Andrew, junior housing minister
- Felicity Buchan, PPS in the Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
- Will Quince, minister for children and families
- Laura Trott, PPS to the Department of Transport
- Robin Walker, minister of state for school standards
- Jo Churchill, under-secretary in the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA)
- Selaine Saxby, PPS to DEFRA
- Claire Coutinho, PPS to the Treasury
- David Johnston, PPS to the Department of Education
- Duncan Baker, PPS to the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities
- Craig Williams, PPS to the finance ministry
- Rachel Maclean, under-secretary in the Department for Transport
- Mark Logan, PPS to the Northern Ireland Office
Looks like there will be a meeting of the 1922 committee on Wednesday. That could lead to a rule change to allow another confidence vote in the leadership by the party. There seems to be a lot of momentum building up after these resignations. These ministers have their own support within the party and the number of letters to the 1922 committee must have been increased drastically.
If Boris loses, will he participate in the subsequent leadership contest?
The greased piglet of British politics is sliding towards the roasting tin.
I actually reckon he will have no choice but to resign inside the next 48 hours.
It is being widely reported that a delegation of cabinet ministers is going to No 10 to tell him to resign.
Unconfirmed reports that even the Chancellor that Boris appointed yesterday is in the delegation.