# Who/what kind of person will succeed Trump as leader of GOP? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 3, 2020, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874 "2020-01-03T12:48:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2020, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/41 "2020-01-04T22:59:35Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Republican politicians don’t give a damn about what the Republican base wants. The only important thing to them is getting elected. And if their current base can’t deliver, regardless of whether it’s a narrow loss or a major defeat, they’ll just move to another group of voters. While I agree with you with respect to GOP politicians (I think it could be said of most politicians really), to use a sport analogy, I don’t think you throw out your entire team because you lose 3-2 in the final game, when you were the champions the previous season. You could be right, but I just don’t see them turning on Trumpian politics so quickly if they think they’ll be elected by Trumpian politics. Of course, it depends on what the analysis says on why they will have lost. Turning away from Trumpian politics could be a more losing move. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/42 "2020-01-06T03:04:55Z")
The ET alien worm lodged in the skull of this POTUS will slink out with his defeat and find another to infest. The giveaway, if it attaches to lower functions: 3rd-grader speech patterns. Hmmm, maybe all ranting reactionary rimjobs have already been invaded. Drooling ichor isn’t a telltale. Look at their corneas. Do they glow? Wriggle? ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/43 "2020-01-06T16:55:41Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Donald Trump pounded that seemingly sensible idea into dust, played instead to old timey conservative grievances, won the White House by the narrowest of margins and **is favored to win again** , even after anyone undecided about him in 2016 has had four full years to wash away any previous doubts about his character. Says who? (My bold) Not doubting you, I’m just curious what you base this on. [RCP](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/) shows Biden, Warren, and Sanders beating Trump as of Dec 20, and Buttigieg losing (not taking into account margin of error)… ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/44 "2020-01-06T19:52:34Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > Says who? (My bold) Not doubting you, I’m just curious what you base this on. [RCP](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/) shows Biden, Warren, and Sanders beating Trump as of Dec 20, and Buttigieg losing (not taking into account margin of error)… I don’t want to ignore this question, I’m just a little surprised by it. I’ll address it specifically later if you still think it’s important. Generally speaking, I’m seeing most national polls calling it another toss-up or with The Don a slight favorite because of the inherent favorability the EC gives Republicans. If some people who do this sort for a living are right, though, there’s going to be a record turnout. I’m still seeing some prognosticators saying that means only that there will be lots more Trump voters turning out, too, but I’m betting the opposite way on that one. If there’s a record turnout, it’ll be because young voters got to the polls and buried Donald. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/45 "2020-01-06T22:05:56Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > I don’t want to ignore this question, I’m just a little surprised by it. I’ll address it specifically later if you still think it’s important. Generally speaking, I’m seeing most national polls calling it another toss-up or with The Don a slight favorite because of the inherent favorability the EC gives Republicans. > > If some people who do this sort for a living are right, though, there’s going to be a record turnout. I’m still seeing some prognosticators saying that means only that there will be lots more Trump voters turning out, too, but I’m betting the opposite way on that one. If there’s a record turnout, it’ll be because young voters got to the polls and buried Donald. No need to be surprised. But here you say it’s either a toss-up or Trump is a _slight favorite,_ not that he is _favored_. In any case, again, this wasn’t to say you are wrong, I was just curious as to why you said that. Because as for me, I think he will lose pretty handily assuming nothing particularly unexpected happens, but I would not be prepared to say I believe that strongly right now. It’s way too early. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/46 "2020-01-06T22:38:34Z")
The Republican electorate does not want a Christian president. They may say they do, but they don’t really. They don’t want Jesus Christ. They want the gladiators of ancient Rome, they want gods with the heads of lions and bulls, they want warrior-priests with wives and concubines. America is a Bosch triptych to these people and they want to be the beast sitting at the top of the pile of skulls. Obviously they can’t _all_ be the beast. But they want that beast on their team. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/47 "2020-01-06T23:00:51Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > While I agree with you with respect to GOP politicians (I think it could be said of most politicians really), to use a sport analogy, I don’t think you throw out your entire team because you lose 3-2 in the final game, when you were the champions the previous season. You could be right, but I just don’t see them turning on Trumpian politics so quickly if they think they’ll be elected by Trumpian politics. Of course, it depends on what the analysis says on why they will have lost. Turning away from Trumpian politics could be a more losing move. I don’t feel this sports analogy works in politics. Politics isn’t a game where you score points and can tell yourself that you’ll do better in the next competition. It’s essentially a popularity contest; you perform and then other people decide if you were the best. And if they didn’t pick you this time, there’s no reason to think they’re going to pick you the next time. That’s why politicians rarely try to run again for an office they lost in an election. ---
**Author:** ![doreen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/858c86/32.png) [@doreen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doreen)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/48 "2020-01-07T01:21:17Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The problem with changing demographics is that they are all concentrated in areas that are already blue. > > In 2004 the democrat won California by about 1.2 million votes. In 2016 the democrat won by over 4 million votes. Those extra votes don’t mean anything since the state is already blue. I don’t know that that’s going to continue to be true - I’m at the age where a lot of people I know are retiring. Lots of them are moving out of New York/New Jersey. But they aren’t moving to California or Washington or Massachusetts - they’re moving to Florida or South Carolina or Texas and they don’t suddenly start liking Trump or the current Republican party just because they move. Add in the new 18 year olds who become eligible to vote every year who are less likely to support Trump/current Republican party than the 70+ year olds who will leave the voting population, and some of those red areas may switch. Maybe not in 2020, but perhaps in 2024. Then account for the states that Trump flipped- some of them barely. Demographics ( or dissatisfaction\*) may cause them to flip back to blue. Which is not to say the Republican party can never win again - but the Republican who can win with a younger, less white electorate is not going to be anything like Trump. - - he won Michigan by something like .3% of the votes. If my math is right, that was under 1000 votes. I’m guessing at least than many people regret voting for him. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/49 "2020-01-07T01:24:34Z")
> [@doreen](#): > > I don’t know that that’s going to continue to be true - I’m at the age where a lot of people I know are retiring. Lots of them are moving out of New York/New Jersey. But they aren’t moving to California or Washington or Massachusetts - they’re moving to Florida or South Carolina or Texas and they don’t suddenly start liking Trump or the current Republican party just because they move. What this does mean, though, in the short run, is that this will benefit Republicans by swelling the population and House/Electoral College clout of those states (Arizona, Texas, etc.) to the point that Republicans get more House seats and Electoral votes, but not yet turn them blue to the point that those states flip blue. ---
**Author:** ![Thing\_Fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecb155/32.png) [@Thing\_Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing_Fish)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/50 "2020-01-07T23:37:55Z")
Assuming that the country remains a reasonably functioning democracy, demographics will doom Trumpism in the next decade. But the current GOP is so identified with him that I think it might actually be more likely that they simply won’t be able to survive as a major national party, because their base will refuse to nominate anyone capable of winning a general election, and even if they do manage to nominate a relative moderate, that candidate will still be tagged with the radioactive Trump brand. Then the Democrats would split into progressive and moderate wings, and those would be the two new major parties. Of course, the Trumpists could still maintain control of certain particularly unfortunate States for a long time to come. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/51 "2020-01-07T23:40:15Z")
> [@phantom\_lamb](#): > > Who do you think will be the face of the party 4 years from now? Possibly Dmitry Medvedev. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/52 "2020-01-07T23:41:20Z")
> [@BeepKillBeep](#): > > I think Ted Nugent has a shot. He has plenty of media appearances. He says stupid, hateful and violent things. He’s ludicrously unqualified. He’s very pro-Trump. All characteristics that the current Republican supporters seem to love. > > I wish I was kidding. I think Ted is too dignified. You’re going to have to find someone a little more prone to outbursts and racist rants. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/53 "2020-01-08T02:43:12Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > I think a couple of us are oversimplifying demographic changes a little. It’s not just about California. The rising generations of voters are overwhelmingly liberal and they’re not restricted to the west coast. Growth in Atlanta and other southern cities is making southern states less and less red with almost every election. Hispanics are growing as a percentage of the population all across the south, not just Texas. This just isn’t true, though. If you actually examine the Republican lean of Southern states, it is not going down. It’s mostly going UP. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/54 "2020-01-08T03:49:15Z")
The nightmare in gonna continue. This Axios poll has Trump Jr right behind Pence in 2024 (at least among the proposed candidates). > **[Trump children are 2 of the top 4 choices for Republicans in 2024](https://www.axios.com/2020/01/04/2024-election-polls-republicans)** > > It's a vivid illustration of just how strong Trump's brand is with the GOP. ---
**Author:** ![aruvqan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aruvqan/32/2891_2.png) [@aruvqan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aruvqan)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/55 "2020-01-08T05:33:16Z")
> [@Thing\_Fish](#): > > Assuming that the country remains a reasonably functioning democracy, demographics will doom Trumpism in the next decade. But the current GOP is so identified with him that I think it might actually be more likely that they simply won’t be able to survive as a major national party, because their base will refuse to nominate anyone capable of winning a general election, and even if they do manage to nominate a relative moderate, that candidate will still be tagged with the radioactive Trump brand. > > Then the Democrats would split into progressive and moderate wings, and those would be the two new major parties. Of course, the Trumpists could still maintain control of certain particularly unfortunate States for a long time to come. We have had political parties die off split and mutate historically. I will be sad if the party dies totally, but if it happens, it happens. ---
**Author:** ![phantom\_lamb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/5f9b8f/32.png) [@phantom\_lamb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phantom_lamb)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/56 "2020-01-08T12:18:32Z")
> [@KidCharlemagne](#): > > The nightmare in gonna continue. This Axios poll has Trump Jr right behind Pence in 2024 (at least among the proposed candidates). > > [https://www.axios.com/2024-election-polls-republicans-60f37160-a4fb-48e6-b054-22bd303604a6.html](https://www.axios.com/2024-election-polls-republicans-60f37160-a4fb-48e6-b054-22bd303604a6.html) I’m surprised about Pence “leading” there. He seems a polar opposite to Trump in SOME aspects (not in awfulness though so there’s that). I can barely tell if the man even has a pulse most of the time. ---
**Author:** ![phantom\_lamb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/5f9b8f/32.png) [@phantom\_lamb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/phantom_lamb)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 12:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/57 "2020-01-08T12:25:11Z")
Also, I think some people are mischaracterizing Trump’s base as being mostly old men who are dying out - I may be wrong because I haven’t checked out reliable statistic recently but I am under the impression that there are quite A LOT of young Trumpers/conservatives just by browsing websites like Reddit/instagram/twitter. Like, not significantly less than the amount of young progressives I see online. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/58 "2020-01-08T14:16:09Z")
Normally, losing an election turns the GOP nominee into a pariah- see Romney and McCain. Should the Democrat win in 2020, Donald will concentrate full-time on staying out of prison. He won’t be speaking out on issues because he doesn’t care about them, other than white supremacy. Where do the MAGAbots go from here? They’ll gravitate to a white supremacist candidate, if one runs. But who on the national stage is as virulently racist as DJT? Maybe Don Junior? [Politico has a list of potential 2024 candidates.](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/01/03/2024-presidential-election-candidates-091055) I’m not seeing the leader of the reich here, except for Don Junior. What I think happens- Democrats win big in 2020, racists go back into hiding. Donald dies early in the new decade. Republicans nominate an old fashioned white dude like Cornyn or Cotton. There is no need to nominate another flaming racist, because the racist base isn’t going anywhere. It’ll be back to dog whistles for a while. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/59 "2020-01-08T14:31:25Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > This just isn’t true, though. If you actually examine the Republican lean of Southern states, it is not going down. It’s mostly going UP. Define “lean” for me. Because the gap in statewide elections has been narrowing in formerly ruby red states like NC, GA and Tejas. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2020, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874/60 "2020-01-08T14:39:21Z")
> [@phantom\_lamb](#): > > Also, I think some people are mischaracterizing Trump’s base as being mostly old men who are dying out - I may be wrong because I haven’t checked out reliable statistic recently but I am under the impression that there are quite A LOT of young Trumpers/conservatives just by browsing websites like Reddit/instagram/twitter. Like, not significantly less than the amount of young progressives I see online. While it’s likely true that 80% of likely Republican voters are still under the age of 65, as someone on Twitter noted last week, millennial voters went Democrat by about 35 points in the last midterms. More importantly, they are defying the stereotypical historical trends by not turning towards (American) conservatism and church membership as they reach their family-rearing middle ages. The conservatives who routinely sneer at current demographical trends as a problem for the GOP are too full of shit to see that the old beliefs aren’t holding true any more. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-what-kind-of-person-will-succeed-trump-as-leader-of-gop/845874.md?page=4)