# Who will be our next president? (note: who will be, not who you would like it to be) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 23, 2016, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669 "2016-07-23T11:59:29Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![urban1a](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/e47c2d/32.png) [@urban1a](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/urban1a)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/81 "2016-07-28T01:40:12Z")
Clinton is not my preferred candidate (Bernie was), but I can’t see how she can avoid being elected right now. [Nate Silver](http://fivethirtyeight.com/) (the statistician) is still predicting 66% Clinton so I feel pretty safe with my choice, even though it is a bit early to call the election. He did call the 2012 election exactly, though, so I am fairly confident. Bob ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/82 "2016-07-28T01:45:34Z")
66% is MUCH lower probability than you seem to think it is. If I have three cartons of milk in the fridge, and I tell you that one is spoiled and will give you a horrendous disease if you drink it, would you grab a carton and random and take a big ol’ gulp? ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 1:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/83 "2016-07-28T01:58:27Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > 66% is MUCH lower probability than you seem to think it is. If I have three cartons of milk in the fridge, and I tell you that one is spoiled and will give you a horrendous disease if you drink it, would you grab a carton and random and take a big ol’ gulp? I wouldn’t take that dare with 5 cartons and 80%. What’s your point? ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [July 28, 2016, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/84 "2016-07-28T02:02:28Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > I wouldn’t take that dare with 5 cartons and 80%. What’s your point? Urban1a, presumably a Clinton supporter (in the sense that he/she prefers that Trump lose), apparently was comforted by Nate Silver’s current model results – that, running his simulation thousands of times with today’s data, Trump wins “only” 33% of the time. ---
**Author:** ![Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mean_mr.mustard/32/3865_2.png) [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mean_Mr.Mustard)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/85 "2017-03-08T21:55:25Z")
Thought it would be appropriate to resurrect this zombie and point out that 83% of Dopers (including me) did not think Trump would prevail. Pretty astonishing that so many of us were so wrong. mmm ---
**Author:** ![wolfpup](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wolfpup/32/10618_2.png) [@wolfpup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wolfpup)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/86 "2017-03-08T22:45:35Z")
> [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](#): > > Thought it would be appropriate to resurrect this zombie and point out that 83% of Dopers (including me) did not think Trump would prevail. > > Pretty astonishing that so many of us were so wrong. Yes, wrong in judging the electorate: wrong in judging the apathy of the hordes who never bothered to vote, and the [lack of] intelligence of many of those who did. But not wrong in judging the consequences of the choices. Regardless of how one judges the electorate, the principle of “I’m so fed up with government that I’m going to vote for a crazy loose cannon and hope for the best” only works once: if the result is an unmitigated disaster, you’re not likely to do it again. I suspect that in the next presidential election the pendulum will swing to the other side with such unprecedented momentum that sane, seasoned politicians who actually know things will find themselves much in demand. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/87 "2017-03-08T22:58:43Z")
Damn, I was opening this so I could vote for Franken. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2017, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/88 "2017-03-08T23:18:15Z")
Even having 83% think Trump wouldn’t win is better than many predictions. I’m still not convinced those weren’t his chances. I repeatedly argued 1 in 5 once I learned of the tendency of pollsters to overshoot 3% one way or the other. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/89 "2017-03-09T04:57:34Z")
:: sigh :: I’d forgotten this thread. And I keep seeing people with faded “Clinton/Kaine” signs still up in their yards. I wish they’d take 'em down; my heart sinks a little every time I see one. Ah, what might have been…! ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/90 "2017-03-09T05:12:58Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > Damn, I was opening this so I could vote for Franken. Yes! Franken-Duckworth 2020! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 7:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/91 "2017-03-09T07:47:05Z")
At least you know Al would put his head down and work his ass off. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 9:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/92 "2017-03-09T09:18:10Z")
> [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](#): > > Thought it would be appropriate to resurrect this zombie and point out that 83% of Dopers (including me) did not think Trump would prevail. > > Pretty astonishing that so many of us were so wrong. We’re not alone. Even the Trump campaign thought Clinton would win until the votes started coming in. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/93 "2017-03-09T13:09:45Z")
I interpreted the poll as a choice for President in 2020. Of the two choices, Trump has the better chance. He will almost certainly run - Hillary will almost certainly not. Of course, I will probably be just as right about this as I would have been, had I voted in the poll in 2016. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![ckalli1998](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a3d4f5/32.png) [@ckalli1998](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ckalli1998)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/94 "2017-03-09T14:33:31Z")
The next president, after Mr. Trump wins a second term, will very probably be Mike Pence. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/95 "2017-03-09T14:38:08Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > The next president, after Mr. Trump wins a second term, will very probably be Mike Pence. Or the next president will very probably be Mike Pence. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/96 "2017-03-09T14:51:31Z")
> [@Mean\_Mr.Mustard](#): > > Thought it would be appropriate to resurrect this zombie and point out that 83% of Dopers (including me) did not think Trump would prevail. > > Pretty astonishing that so many of us were so wrong. > mmm I didn’t vote in the poll, but if I had I’d have been wrong as well. I thought Clinton would win and win pretty big. Pretty much in line with BobLibDem’s post above, when I should have been paying more attention to RickJay who was clearly thinking more rationally about this in this thread. :o ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/97 "2017-03-09T14:53:38Z")
> [@Icarus](#): > > Or the next president will very probably be Mike Pence. In a couple of months… ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/98 "2017-03-09T15:37:52Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > Damn, I was opening this so I could vote for Franken. That’s the first name that came to my mind too, before I opened the thread. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/99 "2017-03-09T15:39:53Z")
> [@ckalli1998](#): > > The next president, after Mr. Trump wins a second term, will very probably be Mike Pence. Yeah, no and no. ---
**Author:** ![Crotalus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crotalus/32/41_2.png) [@Crotalus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crotalus)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669/100 "2017-03-09T15:49:01Z")
I think the only chance Pence has of becoming president is via the death, resignation or impeachment of the asshole in chief. But I’m one of the 176 poor prognosticators from the original poll. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-be-our-next-president-note-who-will-be-not-who-you-would-like-it-to-be/760669.md?page=6)