# Who will determine if The Surge is working in September? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 5, 2007, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872 "2007-05-05T12:24:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BarnOwl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e95f7d/32.png) [@BarnOwl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BarnOwl)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2007, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/1 "2007-05-05T12:24:38Z")
And what will be the criteria? It seems to me that no matter what, Bush and Company will simply cherry pick the non-horrific Iraqi news and will say, “See? I told ya! It’s working, and I don’t want to hear any more on the subject.” And our troops will just keep on surging and getting wounded, or mutilated for life or killed, until the next president takes over. ---
**Author:** ![BarnOwl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e95f7d/32.png) [@BarnOwl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BarnOwl)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2007, 12:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/2 "2007-05-05T12:43:11Z")
I haven’t seen this question asked, recently, but if it has, I would ask the Mods to kill this thread. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2007, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/3 "2007-05-05T13:11:46Z")
George W is The Decider™. :rolleyes: Sounds like a 70s-Era Blaxpoloitation film. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/4 "2007-05-06T16:28:40Z")
Here’s a [press release from the Armed Forces Information Service](http://www.militaryconnection.com/news/april-2007/evaluate-security-plan.html): > [@](#): > > **Leaders Plan to Evaluate Iraq Security Plan, Provide Report in September** > > By Sgt. Sara Wood, USA > American Forces Press Service > > WASHINGTON, April 26, 2007 – Senior U.S. leaders on the ground in Iraq plan to evaluate the success of the new security plan and provide an assessment of the situation to Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates by early September, the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq said here today. > Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of Multinational Force Iraq, told Pentagon reporters that he and Ryan Crocker, the U.S. ambassador to Iraq, will provide the assessment, which will measure progress in the areas of security, economics, governance and rule of law. > > September will be a good time for the assessment, because the additional U.S. forces that are being deployed to Iraq will have been on the ground for several months, more Iraqi security forces will be trained and equipped, and the Iraqi government will have had time to make more progress, Petraeus said. > > “We’ll have seen whether in fact our efforts in these areas have helped produce the kind of progress that they’re designed, in fact, to produce and to see if there is an exploitation of the opportunity that we believe our soldiers and Iraqi soldiers and police will have provided to the Iraqi governmental leaders to come to grips, again, with some of these really tough legislative issues,” he said. > > In the security arena, the leaders will be looking at how successful U.S. and Iraqi forces have been at securing the Iraqi population, which is essential to enable political progress, and the progress of the Iraqi security forces, Petraeus said. In the economic arena, they will evaluate how the Iraqi government is spending its money, both nationally and provincially, and the progress of private banking in the country. > > In the area of governance, Petraeus said he and Crocker will be looking for progress on key legislation and the development of governmental and ministerial capacity. Under rule of law, they will focus on the progress of Iraq’s criminal justice and detention systems, which have posed big challenges for the government, he said. > > Progress is being made in Iraq, but it is often overshadowed by sensational attacks, such as car bombs, that inflict mass casualties, Petraeus said. U.S. and Iraqi forces are working to counter these attacks, but it is a daunting task and realistically, the attacks will continue for some time, he said. > > “In an environment where to prevent those (attacks), you know, the Iraqi and coalition forces have to protect everything and (the terrorists) only have to attack one thing, some of that is going to happen,” Petraeus said. > > Progress in Iraq is often very difficult to demonstrate, because many times it involves the lack of violence, and it’s only newsworthy if that calm lasts for a long period of time, Petraeus said. However, he said, while the sensational attacks grab headlines, levels of sectarian violence are going down in Baghdad, businesses are reopening, and people are slowly returning to normal lives. > > Petraeus described a recent evening helicopter ride over Baghdad after a day in which there was a car bomb attack. Three big amusement parks were operational, restaurants in some parts of the city were booming, lots of markets were open, people were on the street, and soccer games were going on. > > “All of this is actually so foreign, I think, in the mind of most people who see the news and of course do see that day’s explosion or something like that,” he said. “And actually, there is a city of 7 million in which life goes on, and again, citizens are determined to carry on with their life.” > Military Connection’s Comments: > > Army General David Petraeus and Ryan Crocker, the United States Ambassador to Iraq plan to have an evaluation of the status of the new security plan by September. The evaluation will include the status of security, economics, governance and rule of law in Iraq. By September the total amount of surge troops would have been on the ground in Iraq for three months. This will provide a truer picture of the status of the security plan. Security should be tighter with all the troops in place. By September, the Iraqi government leaders should have passed needed legislation that will provide equality for all Iraqis. Violence should be under control enough for the Provincial Reconstruction Teams to start rebuilding the infrastructure. General Petraeus reminds us that life is going on in Iraq. We just don’t hear the good news in our media. The whole “life goes on” trope is a crock, AFAIAC. It’s not false; it’s just true but meaningless. I’m sure life went on in war-torn Lebanon in the 1980s. What’s the alternative, holing up in your home until you starve to death, if you can’t flee the country? (Which millions of Iraqis have done - flee the country, that is.) Those who remain are going to do what they can to survive - try to earn a living, even if the risks of working, and getting to and from work, are far beyond what we would consider unacceptably high; they’re going to buy food and clothing; they’re going to try to find a way to make it through from one day to the next. But that doesn’t change the reality that life in Iraq is very, very dangerous. ---
**Author:** ![BarnOwl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e95f7d/32.png) [@BarnOwl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BarnOwl)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/5 "2007-05-06T16:48:33Z")
Thanks very much **RT**. So, the September evaluation will likely be: “We’re making progress, but we’ll have too stay another X months.” Repeat ad infinitum. And as much as I hate to say it, it might be true. After all, we broke it. Maybe this is all the more reason to impeach Bush. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/6 "2007-05-06T17:56:41Z")
By September, the Iraqi parliament must pass laws to [manage Iraq’s oil reserves](http://www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070505-052812-3519r), modify the [debaathification process](http://jurist.law.pitt.edu/paperchase/2007/04/iraq-debaathification-chief-vows-to.php), and provide for [provincial elections](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2007/05/strategic_patience_needed_on_i.html) If they can’t accomplish these three things by the end of summer, there will be little reason to believe that they ever will. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/7 "2007-05-06T18:51:11Z")
> [@](#): > > The whole “life goes on” trope is a crock, AFAIAC. It’s not false; it’s just true but meaningless. I’m sure life went on in war-torn Lebanon in the 1980s. Yeah, phalangist militias there, PLO here. Massacre here, massacre there. All normal, nothing to see here. > [@](#): > > What’s the alternative, holing up in your home until you starve to death, if you can’t flee the country? (Which millions of Iraqis have done - flee the country, that is.) Those who remain are going to do what they can to survive - try to earn a living, even if the risks of working, and getting to and from work, are far beyond what we would consider unacceptably high; they’re going to buy food and clothing; they’re going to try to find a way to make it through from one day to the next. Look at the context of what Petreaus is saying, in war, basic necessities become the daily routine, because it’s survival, however what he’s saying is; _Petraeus described a recent evening helicopter ride over Baghdad after a day in which there was a car bomb attack. **Three big amusement parks were operational, restaurants in some parts of the city were booming,** lots of markets were open, people were on the street, and soccer games were going on._ Now who the fuck would go to an amusement park in the middle of insurgent threats, bombings and sectarian death squads? You tell me. > [@](#): > > But that doesn’t change the reality that life in Iraq is very, very dangerous. Ok? So what if the surge succeeds? It looks like to me that you’re writing it off before it’s even properly taken off the ground. ---
**Author:** ![mswas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e99b99/32.png) [@mswas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mswas)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/8 "2007-05-06T18:54:27Z")
It will be decided by the candidates trying to get elected early next year, and the criteria that will be used to determine it will be whatever they think is the most likely to get us elected. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/9 "2007-05-06T19:02:37Z")
[QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] _Petraeus described a recent evening helicopter ride over Baghdad after a day in which there was a car bomb attack. **Three big amusement parks were operational, restaurants in some parts of the city were booming,** lots of markets were open, people were on the street, and soccer games were going on._ Now who the fuck would go to an amusement park in the middle of insurgent threats, bombings and sectarian death squads? You tell me. [/QUOTE] And why would I believe him ? That sounds like another lie like McCain’s “an American can just stroll around Baghdad”. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/10 "2007-05-06T19:06:48Z")
> [@](#): > > And why would I believe him ? That sounds like another lie like McCain’s “an American can just stroll around Baghdad”. Because I trust him more than Mc Cain? Regardless of what you think, Petraeus has less inclination to lie about progress when he himself was the one talking about how the solutions to Iraqs problems lay in its politics, where as military efforts came second, he even doubted the Surge could work if those squabbles aren’t resolved. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 7:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/11 "2007-05-06T19:12:23Z")
Here comes the pile on; > [@](#): > > Operational does not mean anyone is going there. Why would an amusement park be open if no one was going to go to it? Seems pretty stupid if it’s open in what is the worlds biggest war zone. > [@](#): > > Some parts of the city? Does that mean the green zone? There’s only one market in the Greenzone as I can recall, but I’ll put that question down to sarcasm. > [@](#): > > Soccer games. What kind of games? Are they real matches with fans or just same groups playing? Most likely same groups playing, since he probably meant a kick about. Which is just people playin soccer. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/12 "2007-05-06T19:16:05Z")
[QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] Because I trust him more than Mc Cain? Regardless of what you think, Petraeus has less inclination to lie about progress when he himself was the one talking about how the solutions to Iraqs problems lay in its politics, where as military efforts came second, he even doubted the Surge could work if those squabbles aren’t resolved. [/QUOTE] He’s willing to work for Bush. That tells me plenty about his reliablity. Bush fires honest people. [QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] Why would an amusement park be open if no one was going to go to it? [/QUOTE] Propaganda based orders from America. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/13 "2007-05-06T19:59:21Z")
> [@](#): > > Petraeus was not talking about this kind of park. Maybe they should release a video of this flight. > > “There were three big amusement parks operational,” Petraeus said of his flight over the city. “I’m talking about, you know, roller coaster kinds of parks - these were not just a couple little merry-go-rounds in small neighborhood parks. Restaurants in some parts of the city were booming. Lots of markets were open. The people were on the street. There were - there had to be a thousand soccer [the American term for football] games ongoing. They’re watering the grass in various professional soccer fields - the soccer leagues.” Which means I can just come back with ‘oh are they in the Green Zone’ or ‘those areas don’t need to have anyone in them to be operational’ See my point? Some areas might be ok to live in, some areas of Baghdad might be completely unliveable. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/14 "2007-05-06T20:01:05Z")
> [@](#): > > Propaganda based orders from America. Yep, and the reverse vampires live in the GreenZone. > [@](#): > > He’s willing to work for Bush. That tells me plenty about his reliablity. Bush fires honest people. Petraeus isn’t an honest man? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/15 "2007-05-06T20:03:14Z")
[QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] Yep, and the reverse vampires live in the GreenZone. Petraeus isn’t an honest man? [/QUOTE] Virtually everyone that is controlled by Bush ends up on the other side (think Powell) ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/16 "2007-05-06T20:08:35Z")
I was struck by a point that Mark Shields made on _The News Hour_ the other night. The administration keeps saying that the operation in Iraq is vital to national security and the so-called war on terror. At the same time they say that if the “surge” doesn’t show signs of working by September - what? We’ll leave and decide that it wasn’t so important after all? Anyone? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/17 "2007-05-06T20:10:51Z")
> [@](#): > > I was struck by a point that Mark Shields made on The News Hour the other night. > > The administration keeps saying that the operation in Iraq is vital to national security and the so-called war on terror. At the same time they say that if the “surge” doesn’t show signs of working by September - what? We’ll leave and decide that it wasn’t so important after all? > > Anyone? If the Iraqis don’t show to be making any effort towards reaching tangible goals towards September then the Coalition will probably have to make a strategic retreat and somehow come with a strategy to limit the violence to Iraq, and prevent it’s spread to other ME countries. ---
**Author:** ![David\_Simmons](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/9de053/32.png) [@David\_Simmons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/David_Simmons)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/18 "2007-05-06T20:51:20Z")
[QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] If the Iraqis don’t show to be making any effort towards reaching tangible goals towards September then the Coalition will probably have to make a strategic retreat and somehow come with a strategy to limit the violence to Iraq, and prevent it’s spread to other ME countries. [/QUOTE] Let’s see, the British who are holding the south through which the so-called Coalition must retreat are leaving when? I suppose, given our administrations track record in advance planning, this pull-out is being coordinated with US command just in case the surge fails. The surge was supposed to integrate US forces with Iraqi units so that we could give them direct on-the-job training. How is that’s working out? The surge was supposed to give increased security to Baghdad so that the Iraqi leaders could work out a politcal division of power, oil revenue sharing and stuff like that. How is Baghdad security is working out? Taking advantage of the improved Baghdad security the Iraqis were supposed to sit down and work out a government that would be representative of the whole country. How is that working out? Oh, the Iraq legislature is taking July and August off? This is progress? Oh yeah. We’ve got to give it a chance.:dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/19 "2007-05-06T20:53:29Z")
[QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] > [@](#): > > Propaganda based orders from America. Yep, and the reverse vampires live in the GreenZone. [/QUOTE] Please; we are talking about the same government that pays the Iraqi media to run stories written by it. We are talking about the same governement that faked that statue toppling scene. And the one that refused the attempts of the Iraqi’s to hand over that lady soldier ( killing some when they tried ), just so they could stage an invasion of the hospital they kept her in and “rescue” her. [QUOTE=Ryan\_Liam] Petraeus isn’t an honest man? [/QUOTE] Probably not, if he’s the sort who works for Bush. Bush would toss him out if he was honest. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2007, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872/20 "2007-05-06T21:31:36Z")
> [@](#): > > Please; we are talking about the same government that pays the Iraqi media to run stories written by it. We are talking about the same governement that faked that statue toppling scene. And the one that refused the attempts of the Iraqi’s to hand over that lady soldier ( killing some when they tried ), just so they could stage an invasion of the hospital they kept her in and “rescue” her. Sounds like a Chris Rock joke this, when he did a show in NYC a few years back all I’m waitin’ for is ‘They even faked 9/11’ > [@](#): > > Probably not, if he’s the sort who works for Bush. Bush would toss him out if he was honest. Why is Petraeus dishonest? > [@](#): > > **David Simmons** > Let’s see, the British who are holding the south through which the so-called Coalition must retreat are leaving when? I suppose, given our administrations track record in advance planning, this pull-out is being coordinated with US command just in case the surge fails. We’re withdrawing our troops in conjunction of the ability of Iraqi Army (that’s the Army, not the police) to establish its presence within areas previously under Coalition control. Man, I even support a phased withdrawal, so long as Iraqi security forces are beefed up, shipped out, and have the ability to support themselves. > [@](#): > > The surge was supposed to integrate US forces with Iraqi units so that we could give them direct on-the-job training. How is that’s working out? The surge was supposed to give increased security to Baghdad so that the Iraqi leaders could work out a politcal division of power, oil revenue sharing and stuff like that. How is Baghdad security is working out? Oh I don’t know, the ability of various sectarian militias has been impeded by the security efforts of the Iraqis and Americans in the capital? Or the fact that various Tribal heads are now taking the fight to Al Queda within Anbar and Baquba provinces? Where as 18 months ago they were actually fighting the US and Iraqi Government? [Reversal in position](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6628357.stm) > [@](#): > > Reversal in position > > The BBC’s Andrew North, in Baghdad, says all the men killed in the suicide bombing are believed to be Sunni Arabs from the surrounding area. > > They are also thought to be members of a tribe which has joined with others against al-Qaeda because of opposition to some of its extremist policies. > > As part of efforts to combat the group, tribal leaders have been urging people to join police and army units in the area. > > It is a complete reversal in position, our correspondent says. > > In the past, many local Sunnis may have co-operated with the insurgency and worked against the security forces. > > This is a trend the US military has been trying to encourage. > > But al-Qaeda has been fighting back, targeting members of the tribal alliance and Iraqi security forces, our correspondent adds. > [@](#): > > Taking advantage of the improved Baghdad security the Iraqis were supposed to sit down and work out a government that would be representative of the whole country. How is that working out? Oh, the Iraq legislature is taking July and August off? This is progress? [International compact for Iraq.](http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/6616261.stm) > [@](#): > > Oh yeah. We’ve got to give it a chance. Yeah. We do, because without trying won’t be any chance for success will there? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-determine-if-the-surge-is-working-in-september/402872.md?page=2)