# Who will end up controlling Iraq's oil? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 29, 2007, 6:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984 "2007-01-29T18:31:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2007, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/21 "2007-03-03T21:15:02Z")
[http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/48605/](http://www.alternet.org/waroniraq/48605/) Another take/ It has always been about oil. We did not give 2 shits about the Iraqis or Saddam. ---
**Author:** ![Will\_Repair](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/a698b9/32.png) [@Will\_Repair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Will_Repair)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2007, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/22 "2007-03-03T21:33:52Z")
Depends on who wins the internal war in the Bush Administration, the neocons or the oil lobby. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2007, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/23 "2007-03-04T01:00:16Z")
[QUOTE=Will Repair] Depends on who wins the internal war in the Bush Administration, the neocons or the oil lobby. [/QUOTE] [I know what you’re talking about](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=381910) – but while that internal war mattered in the first 2-3 years of the occupation, I’m thinking that sociopolitical conditions in Iraq have now degenerated to the point where the oil lobby and the neocons no longer have any meaningful conflict of interest. ---
**Author:** ![slaphead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9bcb4/32.png) [@slaphead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slaphead)\ **Post date:** [March 4, 2007, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/24 "2007-03-04T15:02:39Z")
[QUOTE=mstay] The problem is that it’s not immediately obvious to me why there wouldn’t be a smooth succession after Saddam Hussein’s death like in any other dictatorship, Middle Eastern or otherwise. [/QUOTE] I wasn’t aware that personal dictatorships were particularly well-known for the stability of their political arrangements, particularly when the subject population is less than perfectly homogenous. Squabbling over the spoils tends to erupt quite fast. In this particular case, I’m not convinced the fils Hussein would have been able to sit down and amicably decide who was going to be number one, even if the old guard who had loyally supported their father for decades were happy to amble off into a happy retirement supervised by those two. And that’s without even getting into clans, ethnicity and and the Sunni/Shia issue. ---
**Author:** ![Themenin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ee59a6/32.png) [@Themenin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Themenin)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2007, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/25 "2007-03-05T11:22:50Z")
[QUOTE=slaphead] I wasn’t aware that personal dictatorships were particularly well-known for the stability of their political arrangements, particularly when the subject population is less than perfectly homogenous. Squabbling over the spoils tends to erupt quite fast. In this particular case, I’m not convinced the fils Hussein would have been able to sit down and amicably decide who was going to be number one, even if the old guard who had loyally supported their father for decades were happy to amble off into a happy retirement supervised by those two. And that’s without even getting into clans, ethnicity and and the Sunni/Shia issue. [/QUOTE] This is true of course. Some dictatorships end in chaos and civil war (Yugoslavia), but others transition towards some type Democracy without too much upheaval (Greece). > [@Airman Doors](#): > > Yep. The war between the Sunnis and the Shiites AND Iran’s desire to be the big boy in the Middle East started with Bush. I should start calling him Methuselah. He looks good for being that old. > > Now that I’m done being sarcastic, I will absolutely concede that this war exacerbated the situation by making it happen sooner. But if you don’t see by now that it was going to happen as soon as Saddam died even if we hadn’t invaded you’re wearing blinders. This fight has been off and on for a few thousand years. All we did was accelerate this round of fighting by eliminating the one man that both sides were afraid of. It would have happened 5 years from now or 30 years from now. Saddam was the only obstacle. The problem I have with this is that you seem to be saying that the current chaos was destined by fate. That the US is basically powerless, and even a major military intervention could at best serve only to precipitate the inevitable. Is the US really so powerless that it can’t be held responsible for the consequences of its actions ? A (somewhat tenuous) parallel to the political situation in Iraq can be found in XXth century Spain. After a difficult transition from monarchy, there were conflicting nations within the nation (different languages etc), some historical bad blood, religious and political differences, followed by a major civil war ending in a long military dictatorship. It could have seemed that the death of Franco would inevitably lead to a resurgence of the civil war, but in fact the transition to democracy was relatively smooth. There are some obvious differences - Spain had a democratic nation on one of it’s borders, the Franco government was less repressive than Saddam Hussein (once the ‘reprisals’ period ended). Still, it seems like a stretch to say that Iraq was ‘destined’ to collapse into civil war with the death of Saddam Hussein. As for who’s going to ‘control’ the oil, it looks to me like we have two questions here. Who’s going to profit from the oil, and who’s going to consume it. In economic terms the current debacle seems to demonstrate that seizing the oil by military means is a high cost and unprofitable move. In terms of escalating global conflict or a resurgent cold war, US interests would be best served by having (friendly) trading partners in the Middle-East, rather than attempting to directly ‘control’ the oil. In the case of open warfare, I’m dubious that there would be any realistic way for the US to access ME oil regardless of any pre-existing arrangements. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2007, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/26 "2007-05-21T18:49:18Z")
Update: The Iraqi Parliament [still can’t agree on the proposed oil law.](http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2007-05-20-iraq-oil_N.htm) Foreign investment is the sticking point. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Controvert](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/dec6dc/32.png) [@The\_Controvert](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Controvert)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2007, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/27 "2007-05-22T23:22:00Z")
I like Scott Adam’s plan: [http://dilbertblog.typepad.com/the\_dilbert\_blog/2007/05/iraq\_withdrawal.html](http://dilbertblog.typepad.com/the_dilbert_blog/2007/05/iraq_withdrawal.html) ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2007, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/28 "2007-05-22T23:38:20Z")
[QUOTE=Airman Doors, USAF] Yep. The war between the Sunnis and the Shiites AND Iran’s desire to be the big boy in the Middle East started with Bush. I should start calling him Methuselah. He looks good for being that old. Now that I’m done being sarcastic, I will absolutely concede that this war exacerbated the situation by making it happen sooner. But if you don’t see by now that it was going to happen as soon as Saddam died even if we hadn’t invaded you’re wearing blinders. This fight has been off and on for a few thousand years. All we did was accelerate this round of fighting by eliminating the one man that both sides were afraid of. It would have happened 5 years from now or 30 years from now. Saddam was the only obstacle. [/QUOTE] Saddam had kids. One of them would have killed the other and took over. Iraqis I know feel Iraqi. They claim religion was rarely mentioned in daily life. They mixed and had few problems on that basis. [http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/](http://riverbendblog.blogspot.com/) Heres an Iraqi take. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 23, 2007, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/29 "2007-05-23T22:26:33Z")
Now [Dennis Kucinich](http://kucinich.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=65844) is weighing in! Very insightful dissection of the bill! > [@](#): > > Analysis of Iraqi “Hydrocarbon Law” Section by Section: > The Feb 15th, 2007, draft was made available, not because the Iraqi government released it, but because the Kurds released it. > > This version passed the Iraq Cabinet, and was referred to the Parliament. > > • The legislation contains only three sentences in regards to the fair distribution of oil, but do not resolve any of the issues facing this challenge. The legislation simply requires that future legislation be submitted for approval. Thus, this legislation does not even meet the President’s benchmark. > > • The legislation ensures that the “Chief Executives of important related petroleum companies” are represented on the Federal Oil and Gas Council, which approves oil and gas contracts. This is akin to the foreign oil companies approving their own contracts. > > • The legislation ensures the Iraq National Oil Company has no exclusive rights for exploration, development, production, transportation, and marketing. The Iraq National Oil Company must compete against foreign oil companies with rules that benefit the foreign oil companies. > > • The legislation gives the Iraq National Oil Company some control of developed oil fields and “rights to participate” in undeveloped oil fields in Annex I and II, but these Annexes have never been made public. > > • The legislation gives the Iraq National Oil Company temporary control of the oil pipelines and export terminals, but then directs the Federal Oil and Gas Council to turn these assets over to any entity with no further instructions. The opportunity for a foreign oil company to have control over the Iraqi oil pipeline and export terminals would give that company enormous control of the Iraqi oil market. > > • The legislation demands that “contracts must guarantee the best levels of coordination” with the Oil Ministry, Iraq National Oil Company, the regions and oil companies. The legislation mandates that undeveloped oil fields be developed quickly and oil companies are given explicit authority to “collaborate.” > > • The legislation does not require contracts to be published for public review up to two months after the approval. > > • The legislation provides up to 35 years of exclusive control over oil fields for foreign oil companies. > > • The legislation provides for a preference to Iraqis for jobs and services, but only if these benefits do not place extra costs or inconveniences on the foreign oil companies. > > • The legislation states that disputes between the State of Iraq and any foreign investors will be submitted for arbitration to an international court and will not be decided upon by an Iraqi court. > > • The legislation has four appendices, whose contents remain secret: > > ANNEX NO. 1: PRESENT PRODUCING FIELDS ALLOCATED TO THE IRAQ NATIONAL OIL COMPANY > > ANNEX NO. 2: DISCOVERED (UNDEVELOPED) FIELDS ALLOCATED TO THE IRAQ NATIONAL OIL COMPANY > > ANNEX NO. 3: DISCOVERED (UNDEVELOPED) FIELDS OUTSIDE THE OPERATIONS OF THE IRAQ NATIONAL OIL COMPANY > > ANNEX NO. 4: EXPLORATION AREAS > > The appendices will effectively make clear which oil fields will be controlled by the Iraqi National Oil Company and which are open to foreign control of oil companies. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 6, 2007, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/30 "2007-07-06T22:27:34Z")
Update: The proposed oil law [is still gridlocked by opposition.](http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2007/07/05/afx3885149.html) Moqtada al-Sadr’s followers have now joined the forces arrayed against it. See also [this interview](http://www.democracynow.org/article.pl?sid=07/07/06/1359232) with the founder of the Iraq oil workers union. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/31 "2007-07-07T03:12:59Z")
[QUOTE=Airman Doors, USAF] President Bush has absolutely no choice. In less than 2 years he’s gone. Why is it that some of you are unable to shake off this strange myopia and look to the future? [/QUOTE] Some of us think that it is far-sighted. People have been put into place and things have been thrown into motion that could concievably reach into the future and finish The Goal. I sure as fuck hope that in two years, we can just throw the switch and change the egregious ills. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/32 "2007-07-07T03:14:30Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] Now [Dennis Kucinich](http://kucinich.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=65844) is weighing in! Very insightful dissection of the bill! [/QUOTE] This is why, again, Kucinich is the correct person to run the country. Well, at least he is, in my opinion. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/33 "2007-07-07T19:52:07Z")
A member of the parliamentary committee drafting the oil law just [quit in protest.](http://www.reuters.com/article/latestCrisis/idUSKHA742545) > [@](#): > > Usama al-Nujeyfi told a small news conference that the proposal would cede too much control to global companies and “ruin the country’s future”. He vowed to work to defeat the draft in parliament. > > “I announce my resignation and distance myself from delivering this draft before this parliament and I will carry out my obligation to repeal it inside parliament with all fellow nationalists,” al-Nujeyfi said. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 8:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/34 "2007-07-07T20:02:37Z")
The best idea I heard was to create an oil trust that put took some of the oil revenue and gave it directly to Iraqi citizens. This would help build the middle class, it would give each Iraqi a direct stake in seeing that the country was stable and oil production was growing, and stimulate the economy rapidly through consumer spending. It would also help dispel the persistent rumors that the U.S. was going to steal all the Iraqi oil. Of course, it’s too good of an idea for the Bush administration to ever implement it, even though it’s been recommended by people in pretty high places. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/35 "2007-07-07T20:07:32Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] The best idea I heard was to create an oil trust that put took some of the oil revenue and gave it directly to Iraqi citizens. This would help build the middle class, it would give each Iraqi a direct stake in seeing that the country was stable and oil production was growing, and stimulate the economy rapidly through consumer spending. It would also help dispel the persistent rumors that the U.S. was going to steal all the Iraqi oil. Of course, it’s too good of an idea for the Bush administration to ever implement it, even though it’s been recommended by people in pretty high places. [/QUOTE] At worst, it’s the start to a pretty solid solution. That’s the rub. If this war and such are all about oil, then the people that want the oil have to make it look like they don’t want it. Then they have to work covertly to ensure that it gets into their grubby paws. It all just reeks of greed. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/36 "2007-07-07T20:23:18Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] The best idea I heard was to create an oil trust that put took some of the oil revenue and gave it directly to Iraqi citizens. [/QUOTE] I agree 100%. In addition to the reasons you listed, it would give citizens an incentive to turn in saboteurs attacking the oil infrastructure. ---
**Author:** ![Fuji](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a9a28c/32.png) [@Fuji](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuji)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/37 "2007-07-07T21:36:40Z")
I think, if the US hadn’t nabbed Saddam and he’d instead died of non-US related causes, that Qusai (his smart, brutal son) would have taken over after his death. That is, unless Udai (the dumb, brutal son) had some smart, ruthless friends. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/38 "2007-07-07T22:22:34Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] The best idea I heard was to create an oil trust that put took some of the oil revenue and gave it directly to Iraqi citizens. [/QUOTE] That works well enough in Alaska. But Iraq is so unsettled, with such a horrible refugee problem (internal and external), that I can’t see how the government could even keep track of where to send the checks, or even who is dead and who is alive. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [July 7, 2007, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/39 "2007-07-07T22:23:35Z")
[QUOTE=BrainGlutton] That works well enough in Alaska. But Iraq is so unsettled, with such a horrible refugee problem (internal and external), that I can’t see how the government could even keep track of where to send the checks, or even who is dead and who is alive. [/QUOTE] If they can organize an election, I see no reason they couldn’t organize an oil dividend. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2007, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984/40 "2007-07-08T01:13:25Z")
[QUOTE=Sam Stone] it’s too good of an idea for the Bush administration to ever implement [/QUOTE] Truth. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-end-up-controlling-iraqs-oil/389984.md?page=1)