# Who will the next war be against? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 4, 2006, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361 "2006-06-04T07:05:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/21 "2006-06-05T01:06:50Z")
Christmas. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/22 "2006-06-05T02:49:55Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Sadly, 30K is barely a blip. More were killed in single - conventional - bombing raids in WW2. More were killed or enslaved when ancient cities were sacked. Single battles in the ancient world often involved many more casualties. Point taken, but I’d like to add some qualification. This webpage shows [Major Episodes of Political Violence, 1946-2000](http://members.aol.com/CSPmgm/warlist.htm). By these criteria, the Iraqi conflict counts as “major”. They rank Iraq as a magnitude 5 conflict, on a scale of 1-10. They number the total deaths at 40,000. The list includes 280 conflicts. Half had 5000 fatalities or less. (The minimum death toll was 200, so they didn’t include skirmishes). So much for the median. The average, however, was a good deal larger: 86,014. So there are a small number of truly horrendous conflicts. (For you statistics fans, the standard deviation is a whopping 266,375). TANGENT: Here are the 10 conflicts with the highest number of deaths; fatalities range from 1-2 million human beings: ```auto Begin End Type Mag States Directly Involved Brief Description Deaths 1958 1975 CW 7 North Vietnam "Vietnam War" (civil war) 2,000,000 1950 1951 CV 4 China Repression of the landlords 1,500,000 1950 1953 CW 6 North Korea Korean War (civil war) 1,500,000 1975 1978 CW 6 Cambodia Khmer Rouge repression of dissidents 1,500,000 1996 2005+ CW 5 Zaire Civil War (ouster of Mobutu & aftermath) 1,500,000 1946 1948 EW 6 India "Partition"--Muslims vs Hindus/Sikhs 1,000,000 1946 1950 CW 6 China Chinese civil war 1,000,000 1971 * EW 6 Bangladesh Ethnic war (Bengali independence) 1,000,000 1975 2002 CW 6 Angola Civil war (UNITA) 1,000,000 1978 2002 CW 7 Afghanistan Civil war 1,000,000 ``` Begin End Type Mag States Directly Involved Brief Description Deaths 1958 1975 CW 7 North Vietnam “Vietnam War” (civil war) 2,000,000 1950 1951 CV 4 China Repression of the landlords 1,500,000 1950 1953 CW 6 North Korea Korean War (civil war) 1,500,000 1975 1978 CW 6 Cambodia Khmer Rouge repression of dissidents 1,500,000 1996 2005+ CW 5 Zaire Civil War (ouster of Mobutu & aftermath) 1,500,000 1946 1948 EW 6 India “Partition”–Muslims vs Hindus/Sikhs 1,000,000 1946 1950 CW 6 China Chinese civil war 1,000,000 1971 \* EW 6 Bangladesh Ethnic war (Bengali independence) 1,000,000 1975 2002 CW 6 Angola Civil war (UNITA) 1,000,000 1978 2002 CW 7 Afghanistan Civil war 1,000,000 ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/23 "2006-06-05T03:48:27Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > Whoever it is, they will be brown. > ☹ I don’t know what you’re getting at here. I hesitate to question a senior poster but I don’t see what this has to do with anything. Right now there is no nation of Caucasians that has any chance of going to war with America. So, we’re left with “brown people” that there is a possiblity of going to war against. So what? What does their race have to do with anything? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/24 "2006-06-05T04:46:08Z")
> [@Ale](#): > > I have a dandy idea, why the US doesn´t go through the whole secession thing again so they can keep waging war against each other and leave the rest of the world alone?.. Good idea! Helps us keep in practice! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/25 "2006-06-05T05:21:14Z")
I doubt Iran, as the US can’t get any support for that and is using diplomatic measures. I doubt N.K. as we have had trouble for decades there and no war yet. The next war will probably be some country with no real ties to the US but who is having domestic trouble like Kosovo or Somalia were. I don’t know which one that would be though. Perhaps Sudan. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/26 "2006-06-05T06:37:18Z")
> [@Argent Towers](#): > > So, we’re left with “brown people” that there is a possiblity of going to war against. So what? What does their race have to do with anything? Because most Americans don’t value the lives and freedom of brown people very much; therefore, we are more willing to kill, conquer, rape and torture them. ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 8:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/27 "2006-06-05T08:32:06Z")
I think once that the military actually gets there, it’s easier for them to commit atrocities against people of a different race. But in terms of the actual declaration of war, and the circumstances bringing it about, I don’t think the color of the enemy’s skin will be much of a factor. The countries that we currently have tenuous and potentially violent relationships with happen to be populated by brown people - but I don’t think it’s because they are brown. ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 10:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/28 "2006-06-05T10:56:50Z")
> [@Der Trihs](#): > > Because most Americans don’t value the lives and freedom of brown people very much; therefore, we are more willing to kill, conquer, rape and torture them. Most? Wow, you really do hate America. ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/29 "2006-06-05T11:01:30Z")
But like he was saying **Der** , most Caucasians reside in Europe, Canada, Austrailia, and the U.S. Chances are, we’re not going to war with any of these nations any time soon. So if we did go to war, statistically, there are more brown people that are not are allies, then are. So, if you’re a betting man, I’d place my bets on going to war with brown people. Not because we like to kill, conquer, rape and torture them… but because the odds say we will. ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/30 "2006-06-05T11:54:16Z")
> [@ParentalAdvisory](#): > > But like he was saying **Der** , most Caucasians reside in Europe, Canada, Austrailia, and the U.S. Chances are, we’re not going to war with any of these nations any time soon. So if we did go to war, statistically, there are more brown people that are not are allies, then are. So, if you’re a betting man, I’d place my bets on going to war with brown people. Not because we like to kill, conquer, rape and torture them… but because the odds say we will. Most Caucasians reside in Europe Latin America, America, Russia, Middle East, India and parts of Central Asia, most of them vary in skin colour. ---
**Author:** ![Rune](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e68b1a/32.png) [@Rune](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rune)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 12:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/31 "2006-06-05T12:13:12Z")
What is “brown”? They’re not brown in Asia. That rules out a whole lot of possible trouble spots. Are Latin Americans brown? I don’t think Iraqis see themselves as brown. In fact I’ve read several places that many Iraqis have a real problem with racism and would very much object to be called brown. On the other hand a lot of troubled regions of the former Soviet are ripe for one kind of war or another. But those are not brown either. Also it’s doubtful Russia would accept having the US wage war in what they clearly see as their sphere of influence. They’re brown in DR Congo. And Europe just sent some troops there. But when the going gets tough, the Europeans usually gets going. And then perhaps US will be forced to step in. ---
**Author:** ![ParentalAdvisory](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/53a042/32.png) [@ParentalAdvisory](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParentalAdvisory)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/32 "2006-06-05T14:06:54Z")
> [@Ryan\_Liam](#): > > Most Caucasians reside in Europe Latin America, America, Russia, Middle East, India and parts of Central Asia, most of them vary in skin colour. There’s are disconnect. You’re basing it on Caucasus, and I’m going by the skinned color based definition commonly used here in the U.S. Hey, I didn’t define these things. But I do know what you mean and see the difference. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/33 "2006-06-05T14:31:39Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > Whoever it is, they will be brown. > ☹ You’d like it better if we made war on white people?! ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/34 "2006-06-05T18:42:29Z")
> [@Measure for Measure](#): > > Point taken, but I’d like to add some qualification. > > This webpage shows [Major Episodes of Political Violence, 1946-2000](http://members.aol.com/CSPmgm/warlist.htm). By these criteria, the Iraqi conflict counts as “major”. That’s an extremely selective period. Anyway is it not the case that the vast majority of Iraqi casualties are caused by other Iraqis? Scarcely our fault. And it’s far less than the number of people killed on America’s roads in [2001 alone](http://www.nsc.org/library/rept2000.htm). ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/35 "2006-06-05T19:30:30Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Anyway is it not the case that the vast majority of Iraqi casualties are caused by other Iraqis? Scarcely our fault. . It happened because we invaded, and destroyed their society, for all intents and purposes. It wouldn’t have happened without us. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/36 "2006-06-05T19:41:05Z")
> [@Der Trihs](#): > > Because most Americans don’t value the lives and freedom of brown people very much; therefore, we are more willing to kill, conquer, rape and torture them. Tell that to [Darfur](http://ga0.org/campaign/darfur/explanation). People are _wishing_ “White Americans” would declare war on some brown skins. We’re being criticized for not. You’re probably going to say “yeah, that’s what I meant. White nations don’t care about brown nations.” You know, you may have a point. But I’m pretty disgusted with a whole hell of a lot of brown skins in Sudan right now. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/37 "2006-06-05T19:47:16Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > That’s an extremely selective period. Anyway is it not the case that the vast majority of Iraqi casualties are caused by other Iraqis? **Scarcely our fault**. And it’s far less than the number of people killed on America’s roads in [2001 alone](http://www.nsc.org/library/rept2000.htm). Twaddle: we created the circumstances that fomented terrorism. As to the rest of your assertions: er, 9/11 - spit in the ocean really, wasn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Ryan\_Liam](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ryan_liam/32/3965_2.png) [@Ryan\_Liam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ryan_Liam)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/38 "2006-06-05T19:54:07Z")
> [@jjimm](#): > > Twaddle: we created the circumstances that fomented terrorism. > > As to the rest of your assertions: er, 9/11 - spit in the ocean really, wasn’t it? I think the circumstances were there before we even stepped foot on Iraqi soil, given the political polarisation between Sunni and Shia politics, not even mentioning the Kurds. > [@](#): > > As to the rest of your assertions: er, 9/11 - spit in the ocean really, wasn’t it? Yeah it was. ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/39 "2006-06-05T20:10:12Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Sadly, 30K is barely a blip. Yeah, so 3K is an even smaller blip. So 9/11 was no biggie :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2006, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361/40 "2006-06-05T20:17:45Z")
> [@Polerius](#): > > Yeah, so 3K is an even smaller blip. So 9/11 was no biggie Doh, did not see **jjimm** ’s comment > [@jjimm](#): > > As to the rest of your assertions: er, 9/11 - spit in the ocean really, wasn’t it? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-the-next-war-be-against/359361.md?page=3)