# Who will win an Oscar at some point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [November 14, 2014, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653 "2014-11-14T23:39:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2014, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/1 "2014-11-14T23:39:10Z")
The following is a list of actors who have ever won an Oscar (although most have been nominated, in some cases several times). Which of them do you think are most likely to receive an Oscar at some point in the future? I’m limiting this to acting awards, not honorary awards or awards in other categories. This poll odes allow multiple picks but I’m asking people to limit their picks to a maximum of five. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/2 "2014-11-14T23:43:24Z")
Sorry, didn’t get the option for allowing multiple choices. Can a mod fix this? ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/3 "2014-11-15T00:18:15Z")
While we’re waiting for multiple choice, can I just vote against Bill Murray? I once loved the guy as an actor, but he hasn’t been anything but a placeholder for more than a decade now. If he didn’t get something in the 80’s or 90’s, he’s not about to now. (Though I would be very pleased to be proven wrong.) Really, he’s the only person on the list I’d be surprised to see win an Oscar. Everyone else seems capable, given the right role. ---
**Author:** ![salinqmind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/3ec8ea/32.png) [@salinqmind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/salinqmind)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/4 "2014-11-15T00:53:04Z")
If I lived long enough, I would feel bad that Leonardo DiCaprio never won an Oscar. I’m surprised he hasn’t by now. As for the women, Julianne Moore might win one. I’m afraid Hollywood would consider the others ‘past their prime’. Old geezers can be cast with no problem, older women are lucky to get a token role in a foreign movie. ---
**Author:** ![Typo\_Negative](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/typo_negative/32/484_2.png) [@Typo\_Negative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Negative)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/5 "2014-11-15T00:56:49Z")
I’m surprised Gary Oldman hasn’t won one yet. Johnny Depp will get one eventually. ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 12:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/6 "2014-11-15T00:56:54Z")
I had to vote for my favorite actress, Glenn Close, but at this point I’m not sure she will ever win. She’d have to get just the right part. I do think that she will receive an honorary lifetime achievement Oscar at some point. Of the people on the list, I think Ralph Fiennes is most likely to win one. He’s very talented, and many of his films seem to be Oscar bait. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/7 "2014-11-15T00:59:40Z")
> [@salinqmind](#): > > If I lived long enough, I would feel bad that Leonardo DiCaprio never won an Oscar. I’m surprised he hasn’t by now. As for the women, Julianne Moore might win one. I’m afraid Hollywood would consider the others ‘past their prime’. Old geezers can be cast with no problem, older women are lucky to get a token role in a foreign movie. But I think older actors and actresses sometimes win an Oscar because they’re seen as being overdue. With a younger actor, the voters might figure they’ll have more opportunities to win the award in the future. But with an actor late in their career, the voters might feel this will be the last opportunity to give the award. ---
**Author:** ![SaharaTea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@SaharaTea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SaharaTea)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/8 "2014-11-15T02:01:15Z")
I think Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt are the best bets. Both huge stars, both young enough to have long careers ahead of them, both nominated multiple times. I wouldn’t be surprised if Joaquin Phoenix, Julianne Moore and Ed Norton win at some point too. I used to think Johnny Depp would win one, but now I’m not so sure. ---
**Author:** ![magnusblitz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b4bc9f/32.png) [@magnusblitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magnusblitz)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/9 "2014-11-15T02:14:28Z")
I think DiCaprio, Joaquin Phoenix and Ed Norton are the most likely choices, both based off ability and the sort of movies they do. The latter is important - Liam Neeson seems content to just do ‘Taken’ movies now, and those won’t win an Oscar. I’m tempted to throw RDJ in that category as well, but I’m not sure he can play characters other than himself. He’s perfect as Tony Stark, for example, but ‘The Judge’ seemed like his attempt at an Oscar role, and the movie clearly felt like RDJ sticking his own personality into a movie about family. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/10 "2014-11-15T02:19:42Z")
> [@SaharaTea](#): > > I used to think Johnny Depp would win one, but now I’m not so sure. I think Depp’s in the same position as Downey. The Academy wants to give them an Oscar at this point. All they’ve got to do is find a solid Oscar Bait role and hope the timing’s right. ---
**Author:** ![It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/it_s_not_rocket_surgery/32/312_2.png) [@It\_s\_Not\_Rocket\_Surgery](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/It_s_Not_Rocket_Surgery)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/11 "2014-11-15T02:24:08Z")
The poll should include another pair of shockers who have never even been **nominated** for an Oscar, Alan Rickman and Donald Sutherland. Also, the OP says “who have ever won an Oscar” which is the opposite of your actual point. ---
**Author:** ![Moonchild](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@Moonchild](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moonchild)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/12 "2014-11-15T02:35:29Z")
> [@dracoi](#): > > While we’re waiting for multiple choice, can I just vote against Bill Murray? I once loved the guy as an actor, but he hasn’t been anything but a placeholder for more than a decade now. If he didn’t get something in the 80’s or 90’s, he’s not about to now. (Though I would be very pleased to be proven wrong.) C’mon! Didn’t you see Zombieland? He practically _was_ the character!😃 ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/13 "2014-11-15T03:44:25Z")
Brad Pitt has an Oscar. He was one of the producers of _12 Years a Slave_ and received a statue when the film won B. Picture. I know that’s not the intent of the poll, but still… a B. Picture statue is just as shiny and good looking as a B. Actor statue. (I notice that Matt Damon and Ben Affleck aren’t on this list, though they’ve never won for acting either… and if that’s the case, then Pitt doesn’t belong on this list either.) Of the ones on the list that I would consider most likely to win **Ralph Fiennes** and **Julianne Moore** stick out the most. **Glenn Close** is probably least likely, and among the males I don’t really get the love for **Johnny Depp**. But on the list, I would most _like_ for **Tom Cruise** to get an award just because he’s put out quite the solid body of work with barely a dip for over 30 years. Not many actors or actresses can claim that, and I don’t think any on the list can… **Will Smith** comes the closest, I think. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 4:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/14 "2014-11-15T04:20:42Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Brad Pitt has an Oscar. He was one of the producers of _12 Years a Slave_ and received a statue when the film won B. Picture. I know that’s not the intent of the poll, but still… a B. Picture statue is just as shiny and good looking as a B. Actor statue. (I notice that Matt Damon and Ben Affleck aren’t on this list, though they’ve never won for acting either… and if that’s the case, then Pitt doesn’t belong on this list either.) I’ve never won an Oscar. Never been nominated either. Never even been in a movie. But you don’t see me on the list. Obviously, I can’t list every possible person who might win an Oscar in the future. I had to draw the line somewhere. > [@JohnT](#): > > But on the list, I would most _like_ for **Tom Cruise** to get an award just because he’s put out quite the solid body of work with barely a dip for over 30 years. Not many actors or actresses can claim that, and I don’t think any on the list can… **Will Smith** comes the closest, I think. The problem with Cruise and Smith (and Ford and to a lesser extent Willis) is they do most of their work outside of the Oscar-winning genres. It’s the same point I made about Robert Downey. You’ll be popular and make a lot of money doing movies like _Tropic Thunder_ and _Sherlock Holmes_ and _Iron Man_ - but you won’t win an Oscar for appearing in these movies. If you want the statue, you have to make a movie like _The Soloist_ or _The Judge_. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 4:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/15 "2014-11-15T04:33:50Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It’s the same point I made about Robert Downey. He did do one obvious Oscar-bait film in _Chaplin_ which got him his one nomination ( rightfully so IMHO, even if it isn’t the greatest movie ). It was definitely a better performance than Pacino who won it that year for hamming it up in _Scent of a Woman_. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/16 "2014-11-15T04:36:57Z")
I’d guess Leonardo DiCaprio, who is extremely well regarded for his acting chops and loved in Hollywood but he just hasn’t been the best in any one year yet. Eventually he will be. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/17 "2014-11-15T04:46:49Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It’s the same point I made about Robert Downey. You’ll be popular and make a lot of money doing movies like _Tropic Thunder_ and _Sherlock Holmes_ and _Iron Man_ - but you won’t win an Oscar for appearing in these movies. If you want the statue, you have to make a movie like _The Soloist_ or _The Judge_. Downey _ **WAS** _ nominated for Tropic Thunder. Though it’s unlikely he would have won going up against Heath Ledger’s Joker even if Ledger had lived to see the ceremony. ---
**Author:** ![SaharaTea](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@SaharaTea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SaharaTea)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/18 "2014-11-15T05:53:31Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I think Depp’s in the same position as Downey. The Academy wants to give them an Oscar at this point. All they’ve got to do is find a solid Oscar Bait role and hope the timing’s right. Yeah, my problem with Depp is that I’m sick of his Captain Sparrow/Tim Burton schtick, and I think Hollywood is too. His Oscar Bait role has to be something that showcases his acting as opposed to the gimmicky makeup and accents. But he seems to be really stuck on them. ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/19 "2014-11-15T06:00:52Z")
The answer is Scarlett Johannsen. Also Glenn Close will win if Sunset Boulevard ever gets made. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2014, 8:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/20 "2014-11-15T08:04:41Z")
From the list: Joaquin Phoenix Gary Oldman Leonardo Dicaprio Edward Norton Ed Harris I also think Brad Pitt and Robert Downey Jr. will win Oscars at some point. Pitt for acting rather than producing. I didn’t include Julianne Moore because it’s her time now. She will be onstage accepting the Oscar for **Still Alice** come February, or March or whenever they are. She’ll probably dominate all of the awards between now and then too. Not on the list, up and comers who will win at some point: Jessica Chastain Tom Hiddleston Benedict Cumberbatch Shailene Woodley Tom Hardy [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653.md?page=2)