# Who will win an Oscar at some point? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [November 14, 2014, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653 "2014-11-14T23:39:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/41 "2014-11-17T18:07:42Z")
From the list: Leonardo DiCaprio except he’s seems to be suffering from Lucci Syndrome. Ed Norton. Needs to combine his great acting with a movie that is Oscar fodder. Off the list: Paul Giamatti. Probably for a supporting role. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/42 "2014-11-17T19:07:05Z")
> [@astorian](#): > > Some of the people on that list are too far past their prime (Harrison Ford and Glenn Close) or are now specializing in the kind of films that you just don’t win awards for (Liam Neeson’s action movies, Robert Downey Jr.'s comic book movies). Neeson did _Third Person_ and Downey did _The Judge_. So they’re both trying to keep a hand in “serious” movies. ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/43 "2014-11-17T20:42:55Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Cumberbatch may be winning next year. He’s an early favorite to win for his performance in _The Imitation Game_. Possibly, but I think Michael Keaton is an early favorite. Too? ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/44 "2014-11-17T21:12:38Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Neeson did _Third Person_ and Downey did _The Judge_. So they’re both trying to keep a hand in “serious” movies. Oh, I think Downey and Neeson are both talented enough to give Oscar-worthy performances again. But Neeson is an odd case who did serious movies while young and is now doing shoot-em-up as an older man! Downey is a great Iron Man, but I’d love to see him do some more serious work again, and demonstrate all his genuine talent. ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/45 "2014-11-17T21:40:19Z")
From the list, the only ones I see on an Oscar trajectory are: [ul] [li]Joaquin Phoenix - Oscar loves him and he continues to get the roles.[/li][li]Mark Wahlberg - He’s still building his career, making good choices, and has a nomination. With the right director and role…[/li][/ul] Many of the rest are past their expiration date - Harrison Ford. Others will continue to show up in the nominations but there will always be someone fresh and new who will knock them out. Some just aren’t getting the roles - Edward Norton. For some, it seems that familiarity breeds contempt, as they say. Yeah, they continue to put out stellar work, but we stop being impressed because we’ve seen them so often - they’ve lost “freshness” - DiCaprio. ---
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/46 "2014-11-17T22:01:24Z")
Mark Wahlberg should get one for Transformers. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 17, 2014, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/47 "2014-11-17T23:42:09Z")
Essentially, which of these actors are so beloved/revered, that the Academy will go to any length to give them an award (Pacino/_Scent of a Woman_; Winslet/_The Reader_) 5 nominations Glenn Close - at this point, supporting (if ever). Good roles for older actresses are (sadly) few and far between Albert Finney - Very unlikely. Even Honorary is doubtful. 4 nominations Annette Bening - Mrs. Beatty is well-loved in the industry. It all depends on the role, but possibly. Leonardo DiCaprio - His films have won 28 Oscars and 7 Best Picture nods. Definitely. Ed Harris - Probably supporting (3 in that category so far), but timing is everything Julianne Moore - This year is looking very very good. But sooner or later, definitely. 3 nominations Tom Cruise - He needs more prestige pictures. His last nod was 15 years ago, pre-“crazy” Johnny Depp - He needs his street creed back. Too much of a whore, but still revered. Probably Laura Linney - Not likely, unless she lands the perfect role. Fantastic actress, but not a starlet. Michelle Pfeiffer - Probably not. Joaquin Phoenix - Maybe too eccentric in his choices to nail a win, but very worthy if he keeps this career track Brad Pitt - Redford never won an acting Oscar either. Smart, pretty, Mr. Jolie will settle for the one he has now Sigourney Weaver - Unlikely, unless a plum supporting role comes up 2 nominations Robert Downey Jr - Retooling himself into a superstar will probably have to suffice Ralph Fiennes - He’s been in 3 Best Picture winners, but he’ll need a really meaty role Edward Norton - Seen as too prickly and difficult, but he may pull it off this year nonetheless Will Smith - Much like Cruise, he’ll need to take a risk like he did with his first 2 nods John Travolta - Nope 1 nomination Harrison Ford - Maybe an Honorary award Samuel L. Jackson - If ever, supporting. But will have to be against-type. Bill Murray - Too often subtle and understated. Nope. Liam Neeson - Really unlikely at this point Gary Oldman - Amazing character actors very often go empty-handed. He’ll probably be another. Mark Wahlberg - Nope 0 nominations Bruce Willis - Let’s get nominated first ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/48 "2014-11-18T00:14:48Z")
> [@Equipoise](#): > > Possibly, but I think Michael Keaton is an early favorite. Too? Here’s my early bird predictions. The nominees will be Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, Jack O’Connell, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. And Keaton will win it. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/49 "2014-11-18T00:41:20Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Here’s my early bird predictions. The nominees will be Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, Jack O’Connell, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. And Keaton will win it. Really hard to imagine that lineup without Steve Carrell (although most of the films cited haven’t been released in the US yet, so seeing their broader reception might clarify things a bit). ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/50 "2014-11-18T00:46:23Z")
I’ve heard Carrell’s name mentioned but I think he’s still got the handicap of being seen as a comedy actor even when he’s doing a dramatic role. [![](https://img.youtube.com/vi/o5JAPkvnyso/hqdefault.jpg "Jack Black, Will Ferrell, John C. Reilly sing at the 79th Oscars (2007)") ](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o5JAPkvnyso) ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/51 "2014-11-18T01:40:16Z")
DiCaprio’s overdue. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/52 "2014-11-18T04:07:36Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > DiCaprio’s overdue. To get a sense of who’s the most “due” here are the years when the following actors were first nominated for an Oscar. Albert Finney - 1963 John Travolta - 1977 Glenn Close - 1982 Harrison Ford - 1985 Sigourney Weaver - 1986 Michelle Pfeiffer - 1988 Annette Bening - 1990 Tom Cruise - 1990 Leonardo DiCaprio - 1993 Robert Downey Jr - 1993 Ralph Fiennes - 1993 Liam Neeson - 1993 Samuel L. Jackson - 1994 Ed Harris - 1995 Brad Pitt - 1995 Edward Norton - 1996 Julianne Moore - 1997 Joaquin Phoenix - 2000 Laura Linney - 2001 Will Smith - 2001 Johnny Depp - 2003 Bill Murray - 2003 Mark Wahlberg - 2006 Gary Oldman - 2012 ---
**Author:** ![Equipoise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/equipoise/32/151_2.png) [@Equipoise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Equipoise)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 4:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/53 "2014-11-18T04:39:12Z")
[quote=“Little\_Nemo, post:50, topic:704653”] I’ve heard Carrell’s name mentioned but I think he’s still got the handicap of being seen as a comedy actor even when he’s doing a dramatic role. [/QUOTE] The people who nominate will have seen Foxcatcher and will reward Carrell with a nomination. The actors because it’s (from what I’ve heard) a great performance AND because they understand about being stereotyped and the thrill of breaking out of that, everyone else because it’s (from what I’ve heard) a great performance worthy of a nomination. He also has a LOT of friends who will root and campaign for him. O’Connell is going to have to wait his turn. I agree with your other choices as likely nominees, though so far I’ve only seen Birdman and The Theory of Everything. Not in the Oscar mix, and unlikely to be nominated even if he were, is Gael Garcia Bernal for Rosewater. I’d love to see him get some recognition from somebody this awards season. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/54 "2014-11-18T05:20:56Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Here’s my early bird predictions. The nominees will be Benedict Cumberbatch, Michael Keaton, Jack O’Connell, David Oyelowo, and Eddie Redmayne. And Keaton will win it. Remove Cumberbatch and add Fiennes for Grand Budapest Hotel. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 8:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/55 "2014-11-18T08:24:59Z")
No, I feel that Cumberbatch and Keaton are the two solid locks on getting nominations. If Fiennes gets a nomination (which he might) I think he’ll replace one of the other actors I listed. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/56 "2014-11-18T19:45:01Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > No, I feel that Cumberbatch and Keaton are the two solid locks on getting nominations. If Fiennes gets a nomination (which he might) I think he’ll replace one of the other actors I listed. I would add Redmayne to the lock list. After that, we have: Ben Affleck Steve Carell Bradley Cooper Ralph Fiennes Jake Gyllenhaal Matthew McConaughey Bill Murray Jack O’Connell David Oyelowo Timothy Spall Miles Teller For quite a number of these names, it will depend on how much traction their film gets overall–if a film really connects with the Academy (and quite a few of these are Best Picture contenders), a coattail effect can occur where the cast in particular benefits. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/57 "2014-11-18T20:36:58Z")
You also can’t ignore Oscar Isaac, Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Gael Garcia Bernal, Brendan Gleeson, or - if you want a long shot - Ellar Coltrane. Or a posthumous nomination for Philip Seymour Hoffman. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 18, 2014, 10:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/58 "2014-11-18T22:35:34Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > You also can’t ignore Oscar Isaac, Brad Pitt, Joaquin Phoenix, Gael Garcia Bernal, Brendan Gleeson, or - if you want a long shot - Ellar Coltrane. Or a posthumous nomination for Philip Seymour Hoffman. It really is an embarrassment of riches, though the field will likely narrow once the critics awards start coming out (next month). ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2014, 11:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/59 "2014-11-19T11:31:18Z")
> [@MilTan](#): > > I’m surprised Amy Adams isn’t on the list, seeing as she has _five_ Oscar nominations without winning. She’s the new Kate Winslet. Irene Dunne was nominated five times. Deborah Kerr was nominated six times, and never won. ---
**Author:** ![MovieMogul](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f08c70/32.png) [@MovieMogul](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MovieMogul)\ **Post date:** [November 19, 2014, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653/60 "2014-11-19T18:07:18Z")
Living actors with most nominations and no wins: 6: Close+ 5: Amy Adams, Finney 4: Jane Alexander, Warren Beatty\*, Bening, DiCaprio, Harris, Marsha Mason, Moore 3: Joan Allen, Cruise, Depp, Kirk Douglas\*, Diane Ladd, Angela Lansbury, Piper Laurie, Linney, Nick Nolte, Pfeiffer, Phoenix, Pitt\*, Weaver, Michelle Williams, Debra Winger (\*) indicates has an Oscar in another category or capacity (+) I miscounted earlier [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-an-oscar-at-some-point/704653.md?page=4)