# Who will win the US General Election in 2016 (February Edition) **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 22, 2016, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818 "2016-02-22T18:09:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/21 "2016-02-24T08:06:38Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > I think once Cruz and Rubio finally drop out, Carson is going to pick up most of their supporters. And his trustworthiness numbers are much better than Clinton’s. Many, many voters _would_ trust Carson…to be the most clueless president by far since the US was founded. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/22 "2016-02-24T08:36:35Z")
I would like to change my prediction… And have a stiff drink. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/23 "2016-02-24T09:33:49Z")
Change it how, Sam? Just because Trump took Nevada? ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 9:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/24 "2016-02-24T09:43:13Z")
I think that Trump is a stalking horse for someone else. He has a plan he has not revealed. The actual next President of the USA will be… Arnold Schwarzenegger! ---
**Author:** ![Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e99b99/32.png) [@Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Einstein_was_a_Hippie)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/25 "2016-02-24T09:57:16Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Why do people keep saying this? No, if Trump comes in second the rest of the race he will not necessarily win. If he comes in second in Texas behind Cruz, that will almost tie them up - the winner gets 2/3 of the 155 delegates. Georgia has 76 that similarly gives 2/3rds to the winner. Then you have big winner take all states like Florida’s 99 delegates and California’s 176. Trump is only ahead by 50 delegates in a race to 1237. Why does everyone act like he’s got it in the bag? He _possibly_ could win with a lot of second places. Seriously? Seriously, bro? I cannot believe how people are still in denial. Trump outperforms all the polls. The Silent majority is speaking. How can anyone not see the writing on the wall? You have to be kind of politically ignorant, or in just plain denial to not see that Trump is going to win this nomination by a very wide margin. Double digits, at least. Trump will be the nominee. He lost Iowa, which doesn’t mean anything. He has won decisively in every contest since. Outperforming the polls, and putting egg on the faces of the loudmouthed minority in this country. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 10:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/26 "2016-02-24T10:30:12Z")
Of course, Trump being the Republican nominee is going to drive the Democrats to the polls in _huge_ numbers. So Hillary wins. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/27 "2016-02-24T19:34:17Z")
Yes. If Hillary has the nomination sewn up by the time Missouri votes, I will be voting for Trump in the Democratic version of “Operation Chaos”. It’s not often we get a chance to run against such a total straw man as Trump. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/28 "2016-02-24T20:17:21Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Is there a particular reason her health is in question? Yes, she’s the Democratic frontrunner. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/29 "2016-02-24T20:21:37Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Yes. If Hillary has the nomination sewn up by the time Missouri votes, I will be voting for Trump in the Democratic version of “Operation Chaos”. It’s not often we get a chance to run against such a total straw man as Trump. Trump should have it sewn up by then too. You should vote Carson so he looks like a good VP candidate. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/30 "2016-02-24T20:22:51Z")
Kinda hoping for Bernie, but Hilary seems the safe bet. I wonder if Bernie would take the #2 job? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/31 "2016-02-24T20:26:12Z")
> [@Einstein\_was\_a\_Hippie](#): > > Seriously? > > Seriously, bro? > > I cannot believe how people are still in denial. Trump outperforms all the polls. The Silent majority is speaking. How can anyone not see the writing on the wall? You have to be kind of politically ignorant, or in just plain denial to not see that Trump is going to win this nomination by a very wide margin. Double digits, at least. > > Trump will be the nominee. He lost Iowa, which doesn’t mean anything. He has won decisively in every contest since. Outperforming the polls, and putting egg on the faces of the loudmouthed minority in this country. I am not in denial at all. He is likely to be the nominee if Rubio doesn’t pick up Bush supporters and people starting to leak from Cruz now that the liar thing is sticking. But read what I actually replied to. Trump can’t win if he comes in second from here on. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/32 "2016-02-24T20:27:58Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Trump should have it sewn up by then too. You should vote Carson so he looks like a good VP candidate. Heh, interesting point. > [@DrDeth](#): > > Kinda hoping for Bernie, but Hilary seems the safe bet. > > I wonder if Bernie would take the #2 job? I’ve got to think he’d take it, but I seriously doubt it will be offered. ---
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/33 "2016-02-24T20:30:14Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Trump can’t win if he comes in second from here on. Which he won’t. After Trump wins Super Tuesday he’ll be the next President. While Hillary will be in Prisondent. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/34 "2016-02-24T20:34:16Z")
> [@Drunky\_Smurf](#): > > Which he won’t. After Trump wins Super Tuesday he’ll be the next President. While Hillary will be in Prisondent. Don’t stop believin’! ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/35 "2016-02-24T20:41:06Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > Change it how, Sam? Just because Trump took Nevada? Because Trump not only won Nevada…he kicked some ass there. The great Republican hope in Rubio didn’t show very well at all. Trump is now in a position to lock the damn thing up come Super Tuesday. I voted Hillary. Not only is she a prohibitive favorite for the nomination - Sanders fans may dream but in terms of dollars, organization and institutional support Hillary wins - but the lean in the Electoral College favors the D candidates. Only Rubio has a shot at running the table - which the R candidate needs to do - and winning the college. States in the bag for any sane D candidate: CA - 55 CT - 7 DC - 3 DE - 4 HI - 4 IL - 20 MA - 11 MD - 10 ME - 4 MN - 10 NJ - 14 NY - 29 OR - 7 PA - 20 RI - 4 WA - 12 WI - 10 Source: [270towin.com](http://www.270towin.com/). List of states that voted for the same party each election since 2000. That’s 242 out of a needed 270. Flipping one state such as OH or FL and it grows towards certainty that the D candidate will win. The R candidate essentially needs a strong tailwind or an enormously bad screw up on the part of the D team to pull out a win. The smart money is on Hillary now because she’s favored to be the nominee and the D party has the advantage to win the electoral college. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/36 "2016-02-24T20:45:30Z")
If the Republican nominee is anyone except Rubio, Clinton wins in a cakewalk. I’m not thrilled by that, since I support Bernie, but I’m being realistic. I can’t see Cruz or Trump winning the general. If it’s Rubio - well, he’s the one that makes me the most nervous. He’s way underqualified when compared with Hillary, but he’s so much more likeable than she is. I can see him winning FL and giving her a tight run. Rubio can still win over people with a good campaign, but most people have already made up their mind about Clinton. If I were placing a bet, it would still be Clinton over Rubio. But that’s not what I’m hoping for. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/37 "2016-02-24T20:45:47Z")
I agree with you about Hillary, **Jonathan Chance** , but that was my answer before Trump won Nevada. So I still don’t understand that comment. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/38 "2016-02-24T21:07:52Z")
No, I was just riffing on why Sam needs a drink. Can’t blame him with your team getting hijacked. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/39 "2016-02-24T21:27:20Z")
So Sam is a Republican, and initially picked Rubio or something? ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2016, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818/40 "2016-02-24T21:29:34Z")
Well, that’s essentially post #11 in this thread. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-will-win-the-us-general-election-in-2016-february-edition/746818.md?page=3)