# Who wins in 2024? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2022, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481 "2022-11-06T21:17:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/142 "2023-10-06T05:42:48Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Trump will have a hard time reaching those voters without Pence. I don’t think so. The hypocrisy is mighty in many corners of the evangelical world. An imperfect leader satisfying their ideology is far more important to the vast majority of them than their own theology. They will overwhelmingly cleave to Trump (their ‘Cyrus’) for socio-cultural reasons and ignore the fact that he is the antithesis of a godly man. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/143 "2023-10-06T05:51:04Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > I don’t think so. The hypocrisy is mighty in many corners of the evangelical world. An imperfect leader satisfying their ideology is far more important to the vast majority of them than there own theology. They will overwhelmingly cleave to Trump (their ‘Cyrus’) for socio-cultural reasons and ignore the fact that he is the antithesis of a godly man. I agree this was true. But I feel that Pence was the reason Christian conservatives were able to stomach Trump. They told themselves that Pence was there in the room, guiding Trump in good Christian directions even if he wasn’t a good Christian himself. (I feel they were deluding themselves in thinking Trump listened to Pence.) But Trump’s rejection of Pence means he’s no longer Cyrus. Now he’s the Pharaoh. ---
**Author:** ![Toxylon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@Toxylon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxylon)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 8:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/144 "2023-10-06T08:41:15Z")
Hopefully a Pariah in the not-too-distant future. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/145 "2023-10-06T12:14:57Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > But I feel that Pence was the reason Christian conservatives were able to stomach Trump. Self-proclaimed Christian conservatives include there who regularly go to church, and others who rarely do. The kind that does NOT go to church are most strongly for Trump. Why not? Trump is a fake Christian, and, allowing for great human variability, so, generally, are they. The kind that goes to church mostly votes Trump, but not as overwhelmingly. Some of them indeed have a Pence sensibility. But church attendance is down. I won’t put in links for that last, but suggest googling for surveys if this is doubted. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I feel there is no pool of new Trump voters out there (barring the young voters who weren’t able to vote for Trump in 2020). My feel is that since Trump, in Trump-Biden polling averages, in 2023, consistently polls 7 - 10 percent above where Donald was in 2019, there must be such a pool. Until we see the exit poll results late next year, it is a bit speculative to say who they are. However – in terms of the thread question, I want to repeat the good news yesterday about Cornel West deciding not to run as a Green. This was big because all-new parties have a terrible record when it comes to gaining ballot access. If Biden wins, West’s decision will have been decisive. The other third party situation, with Kennedy, is less worrisome because that guy will peel votes away from both major parties. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 12:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/146 "2023-10-06T12:18:02Z")
Good summary of my fears/thoughts as well. ---
**Author:** ![Napier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/ce73a5/32.png) [@Napier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Napier)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/147 "2023-10-06T13:42:06Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I feel there is no pool of new Trump voters out there (barring the young voters who weren’t able to vote for Trump in 2020). I’m afraid of a certain pool of new Trump voters: people on the margin who weren’t paying much attention last time, and voted for Biden, and have since been unimpressed (perhaps because they are still not paying much attention), and so decide to try voting Trump this time. After all, in practice elections depend most on the people who care least. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/148 "2023-10-06T15:42:00Z")
My fear is that the Republicans are able to reach some kind of arrangement with Trump and the field opens up for another candidate. People have become so focused on how terrible Trump is (justifiably) that they’ll look at a Republican nominee like DeSantis or Christie and say “Well, he’s not so bad.” Instead of another Trump administration we’ll end up with another Bush administration. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/149 "2023-10-06T15:55:57Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Self-proclaimed Christian conservatives include there who regularly go to church, and others who rarely do. The kind that does NOT go to church are most strongly for Trump. Why not? Trump is a fake Christian, and, allowing for great human variability, so, generally, are they. What’s Christianity all about if it doesn’t mean holding other people to standards you don’t live by yourself? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/150 "2023-10-06T16:23:52Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > My fear is that the Republicans are able to reach some kind of arrangement with Trump and the field opens up for another candidate. I wouldn’t worry too much about that. Any such arrangement requires promises to keep Trump out of both federal and state prison. Trump would have to be incredibly stupid to believe such promises both because of questions about presidential power over state judicial systems, and because a promise from a fellow Republican is worthless. . ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/151 "2023-10-06T16:53:18Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > What’s Christianity all about if it doesn’t mean holding other people to standards you don’t live by yourself? Be careful not to confuse “Christianity” as in “following the teachings of Christ” with “Christianity” as in “Conformist social control beloved by rednecks and you-deserve-prosperity excuse-making beloved by suburbanites.” Those are two very different religions, with the latter far more common among the US electorate in general, and IMO the trump-leaning ones in particular. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/152 "2023-10-06T17:06:26Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > No, Joe would cream any other Repub. On the timeline where the Ochre Joker stuck to real estate scams, Biden would have a tough fight. On this one, there are too many accept-no-substitutes diehards who won’t turn out for any other Republican. ---
**Author:** ![ParallelLines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/parallellines/32/3575_2.png) [@ParallelLines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ParallelLines)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/153 "2023-10-06T18:20:02Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. Or disagree about disagreeing. I think this is fair. I will not say your scenario is impossible, but I consider it _highly_ unlikely. However, I’d LOVE (!!!) for you to be right and I to be wrong, and that Biden will not only win, but improve his performance. You may now check to see if Hell is experiencing abnormally cold weather, as a SDMB poster honestly wished to be proven wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/154 "2023-10-06T18:22:24Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Trump would have to be incredibly stupid to believe such promises Which he is, but just not in this particular way. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/155 "2023-10-06T18:30:37Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > On the timeline where the Ochre Joker stuck to real estate scams, Biden would have a tough fight. On this one, there are too many accept-no-substitutes diehards who won’t turn out for any other Republican. What happens if those Trump diehards get _Vote For That Guy_ exhortations from, as it were, Trump? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/156 "2023-10-06T18:59:59Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > But I still feel that anyone who wasn’t motivated to vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020 won’t be motivated to vote for him in 2024. And plenty of people who were motivated to vote for him in 2016 and 2020 will have felt their motivation has diminished and won’t vote for him in 2024. Did you look at the CNN poll I linked to? It shows a marked and fairly large decrease in approval of Joe Biden since he was elected, across many categories. His overall disapproval numbers went from 41% to 61%. His approval rating is at 39%. In April of 2021, 52% of people said that Joe Biden inspires confidence. That number is now 28%. In October before the last election, 52% of people had a favorable opinion of Joe biden. That number is now 35%. In the same polls, Trump had a 41% approval rating before the last election, 11 points behind Biden. Today they are both tied at 35%. It seems to me that Trump is not gaining support anywhere, but Biden has lost tremendous ground since the last election and now has lost all his advantages over Trump in favorability, trustworthiness, etc. Trump has a HUGE lead when it comes to who is better for the economy. A very scary one for Democrats: In an August poll of Democrats, only 33% wanted Biden to be their nominee. Obama’s number was 76%. Clinton’s, 57% This isn’t a recipe for getting more Trump votes, since Trump hasn’t gained any support. It’s a recipe for Democrats staying home on election day. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/157 "2023-10-06T19:49:16Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The kind that does NOT go to church are most strongly for Trump. Why not? Trump is a fake Christian, and, allowing for great human variability, so, generally, are they. Right. Too many so called Evangelicals are fake Christians who have abandoned the teachings of Jesus. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > Be careful not to confuse “Christianity” as in “following the teachings of Christ” with “Christianity” as in “Conformist social control beloved by rednecks and you-deserve-prosperity excuse-making beloved by suburbanites.” > > Those are two very different religions, with the latter far more common among the US electorate in general, and IMO the trump-leaning ones in particular. Exactly. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2023, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/158 "2023-10-06T21:57:44Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > In the same polls, Trump had a 41% approval rating before the last election, 11 points behind Biden. Today they are both tied at 35%. I agree with your post. And looking at the current 538 polling averages, it is even a little worse for Democrats (or any never-Trumper) than what I just quoted. [Trump’s current](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) favorable - unfavorable is 15.4% And [Biden’s current](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/) approve - disapprove is exactly two percent worse, 17.4%. It might be objected that favorability isn’t exactly the same as approval, one reason I mostly look at head to head horse race polling. But I mention these averages to agree with you. I found a good recent [interview with James Carville](https://www.thefp.com/p/james-carville-says-wokeness-is-over) in which he basically suggests that Biden drop out (without predicting he will): > [@](#): > > In terms of raw political talent, the modern Democratic Party is full of it. Now, you wouldn’t know it because it’s like watching Secretariat in a barn. You got to get it on the goddamn track to see what it can do. But trust me that there’s real talent—and it’s not Bobby Kennedy, by the way. . . . > > I’d like to see seven people running on a stage that had ideas and energy and could string a sentence together. Y’all decide who the hell you like, but give people a choice. In my opinion, which ticket wins in 2024 is up to Biden. If he runs, it will probably be the GOP ticket, regardless of Trump’s legal problems. Carville again: > [@](#): > > He said that he could shoot someone in the middle of Fifth Avenue and it wouldn’t matter. Well, he was found in a court of competent jurisdiction to have _raped_ someone on Fifth Avenue. It didn’t matter! So I guess if rape don’t count in this country, I don’t know what does. ---
**Author:** ![SunUp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ea5d25/32.png) [@SunUp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SunUp)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2023, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/159 "2023-10-07T00:19:46Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > A very scary one for Democrats: In an August poll of Democrats, only 33% wanted Biden to be their nominee. Obama’s number was 76%. Clinton’s, 57% Where do the Obama and Clinton numbers come from? ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2023, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/160 "2023-10-07T00:32:34Z")
Biden. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2023, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481/161 "2023-10-07T00:47:51Z")
It came from the same poll I was talking about and linked to. Read further. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/who-wins-in-2024/974481.md?page=9)