IIRC, Marvel did a comic-book story where an astronaut who’s barely aged at all during his looooong trip to a far-off world circling a distant sun arrives there, and – hey, look, it’s all the humans who grew up here after their ancestors came up with a much faster sci-fi rocket to the stars in the interim!
Must’ve overtaken you during your sloooow flight, huh?
No need for prisoners - there will be plenty of volunteers. And you wouldn’t want just any prisoner. Only a highly skilled planetary scientist would be worth the cost of sending on an interstellar trip.
However, I’m not sure the public would support a one-way trip, even for a volunteer. I don’t think any government could get support for it. It would have to be privately funded.
That’s such a common occurrence in science fiction that no serious author would bother with making it the main gimmick of a story-- It’s something that would just happen in the background along with all of the other unremarkable things.
For example, it was a minor plot point in the Robert Heinlein juvenile, “Time for the Stars”.
As for whether I’d go, I would say yes, absolutely. My theory is that whatever happens is likely to more interesting than whatever happens to the average person who remains on Earth.
You’re citing the fact that one prediction was wrong as evidence that all predictions are probably wrong? Doesn’t that mean that your prediction is probably wrong too?
There is no college football in space. I’m staying put.
At TVTropes it is called lightspeed leapfrog.
I’ve been thinking about this lately, because of the Mars colony talk. I can’t really imagine how a colony on another planet would work without easy interstellar travel- and that isn’t ever happening.
Think about it. Imagine you are given an offer to be one of 10,000 people to be taken to a fresh new planet. Even better, it’s 100% Earth equivalent. Now imagine that your job, for the rest of your life, once you get there will be to mine iron ore using limited tools, to be smelted into metal to make basic machine tools, to build better mining equipment for the next generation… Life on Earth would have to be pretty bad to accept that bargain, and every field would have the same problem. Creating an industrial base to achieve even 1900’s level technology is an unimaginably huge task, especially with a limited population.
Now, if you’ve got AIs and autonomous robots or nanotech or biotech, that would be different, but if a society has those, it’s going to be so different from ours that there’s no point speculating about what’s possible.
I’d like to explore deep space from the comfort of my home right here on good ol’ Earth. And it could happen in the very near future, maybe even tomorrow—with a great deal of luck.
It would involve being visited by nice, super-strong AI, non-biological, self-replicating beings sent on a mission of interstellar, intergalactic or extraglacatic exploration millions or billions of years ago, created by a super-advanced biological civilization far far away, and long long ago.
They would have to come in peace and and bring along their advanced multimedia players (complete with their version of smell-o-vision, taste-o-vision and touch-o-vision for the full immersive experience) loaded with recorded highlights of all the cool places they’ve explored along their way. Perhaps they get off on seeing the stunned reactions of civilizations less advanced than their own seeing the “Wonders of the Universe”—until they eat us.
While I believe the odds of us being visited by such beings tomorrow, or even ever, are slim-to-none, they are IMHO better than the odds of our species in it’s current form exploring deep space in person, or reaping the benefits of our own strong-AI creations sent on deep space exploration many years from now, which I calculate to be none-to-none.
Let some other [sucker] civilization do the exploratory grunt work. I don’t need to attend a live Ricardo Muni symphony concert to appreciate Beethoven’s 9th, just play me a good Deutsche Gramophone recording of the concert while I sit on my couch eating pop corn. No chance of me being killed by a drunk driver on the way to the concert hall, or sitting behind a lady with a big hat, or next to a guy with BO, either (symbolic of the inherent dangers of long distance space travel).
IOW, I don’t believe I or any other human will ever explore deep space. And, if we do someday seed deep space with AI robots, it will be some alien civilization who will reap the benefits, not us.
Screw that. I’d rather spend those tax dollars on space hookers and blow.
Yes but all these are technical issues that may be solvable with advanced technology in the future, I feel my issue could be a bigger one it is far less likely to be solved with technology.
Maybe prisoners would have the choice to do it for only 10 years and hibernate on the way so they only lose those years instead of 50 or more on Earth. I suppose finding qualified prisoners is possible, given that enhancements would be available.
This I doubt because you can always go to a much nearer location and experience life on a another planet for a much cheaper cost. Also with virtual reality the appeal of a different plant may be significantly reduced compared with the constant entertainment on Earth. If entertainment gets good enough people will barely want to leave their real apartments.
Why would you go if you can experience VR games with alien planets far more exciting and perhaps more realistic right on Earth?
You will have robots to do the boring work for you. But I agree that work on a distant planet may actually be less exciting than on Earth. But it seems to me the lack entertainment would be a bigger issue. Maybe the first explorers will not take this into account, but after they return and regret going the next generation will definitely reconsider.
I think the most likely case for human deep space exploration is the discovery of some form of alien life (initially via AI). That would be a valid reason to hibernate for 1000s of years to reach with 0 guarantee of anything.
First things first, we need to figure out how to suspend live humans in a sort of stasis, so they don’t age. That will be key. Then the ship will have to be self- maintaining, and self- operating. Oh, shit my brain hurts. I dont want to go now.
I refuse to spend thousands+ years in a static state of somnolence unless I’m assured that that upon waking, the destination planet is ripe with at least one indigenous species whose fried flesh tastes like bacon.
Out of curiosity, have you been following the development of SpaceX, by any chance?
The cost you describe would be the case following the traditional NASA model, using their SLS rockets.
SpaceX has made huge strides in cost reduction; some of it coming from being a private country not mandated to use facilities in 50 different states to put together one mission, with a massive corresponding increase in mission complexity and cost.
But the big money saver is the work they’ve put into re-usability and mass production. They’re routinely landing their boosters, something no one else has done, and have standardized their design so the engines from previous models can be refurbished and reused as well.
They’ve already achieved a 75% cost decrease over other rocket launches. This would mean a Mars mission cost of $125 billion. I suspect it’ll be a while before the reusable boosters drive down cost per pound even lower, considering they just started landing them in 2015.
They’re planning on sending a Mars rocket in 2022 (unmanned) followed by a manned mission in 2024 - in Elon Musk time, probably adjust forward 2-4 years. Their plans are incredibly ambitious (and, in fact, the whole point of the company) - a full Mars colony, with 100 people launched on a rocket 3 times larger than a Saturn V (refueled in orbit by 2 other similarly gigantic launches before departing for Mars).
Musk is claiming he can continue the company’s trend of decreasing launch costs to such an extreme that he can sell tickets to Mars for $500,000 each. I’m a bit skeptical about the price point - $50 million per trip would take 20 trips just to recoup the cost of making the vehicle and booster.
But it is fascinating, and given their track record of going from paper to the largest private launch company in 10 years, their Mars ambition is far from proven to be vaporware like Mars One and its “we’ll raise money through social media and make more money broadcasting a reality show once we get to Mars… somehow.”
And Pussy! 
Wait ---- none of the old sports broadcasts or anything will ever reach me? Sign me up NOW! 