# Who's really ahead in the polls, Bush or Kerry? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 29, 2004, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716 "2004-09-29T19:55:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/181 "2004-10-27T16:07:40Z")
I should have added this to my last post. “Also noteworthy are the four Florida and four Ohio polls today although neither of those states changed hands. Of the four Florida polls, two of them (ARG and Survey USA) give Kerry leads of 3% and 2%, respectively, one of them (Rasmussen) is a tie at 48% apiece, and one of them (Zogby) shows Bush ahead by 4%. I find it ironic that all summer long I was bombarded with e-mail from Republicans denouncing John Zogby as an unreliable Democrat, but that now that he is the only one showing Bush ahead in the key swing states, the e-mail has abruptly ceased. But Zogby’s poll is the most recent, so it is the one I am using. Nevertheless, trouble is clearly brewing for Bush in Florida.” Bush winning Florida is dubious. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/182 "2004-10-27T16:10:51Z")
I enjoy following the polls, but i don’t give them any weight after the 2000 election debacle when so many of them turned out to be wrong – not just for the Presidential race, but for a lot of House and Senate races too. If the pollsters were honest, their margin of error would have to be 10 or 5 percent. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/183 "2004-10-27T16:11:08Z")
Take the polls with liberal doses of salt. I think the interest in this election is so intense that the pollsters really don’t have a good grasp on the demographics of the “likely voters” so turnout is everything. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/184 "2004-10-27T16:11:41Z")
Over at [http://race2004.net/election.php](http://race2004.net/election.php) : > [@](#): > > If the election were held today we project: > > Kerry wins the presidency with 273 electoral votes. Bush places second with 265 electoral votes. > > Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,307,791 votes (49.56%). Bush places second with 54,331,957 votes (48.68%). ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/185 "2004-10-27T16:11:57Z")
> [@Evil Captor](#): > > I enjoy following the polls, but i don’t give them any weight after the 2000 election debacle when so many of them turned out to be wrong – not just for the Presidential race, but for a lot of House and Senate races too. If the pollsters were honest, their margin of error would have to be 10 or 5 percent. Er, make that 10 or **15** percent. ---
**Author:** ![Mal\_Adroit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df788c/32.png) [@Mal\_Adroit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mal_Adroit)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/186 "2004-10-27T16:12:01Z")
I’m still concerned about Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/187 "2004-10-27T16:19:22Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Take the polls with liberal doses of salt. I think the interest in this election is so intense that the pollsters really don’t have a good grasp on the demographics of the “likely voters” so turnout is everything. The polls may be **very** badly off the mark this year. Georgia provides a good example. Today’s Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports that a \*\*72% turnout \*\* among registered voters is expected this year. \*\*72%!! \*\* That’s astonishing in Georgia, which usually has very low turnout. Over the past few decades, the range has been [30% to 47%](http://www.11alive.com/news/news_article.aspx?storyid=49962). I seriously doubt that any of the polls are taking into account the unprecedented surge in new voters this year. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/188 "2004-10-27T16:20:56Z")
Another reason the polls could be off: We all know there was a lot of Pubbie skullduggery in 2000, but do we really know that ALL the Pubbie skullduggery that went on then was caught? A lot of stuff could have gone on in states other than Florida that didn’t set of any alarms in 2000, because people didn’t know what a cheatin’ bunch the Pubbie leadership is, and so they didn’t keep such a close eye on them – certainly, there was nothing like the scrutiny we’re seeing in THIS election. There could have been MASSIVE numbers of votes that were stolen nationwide in 2000. With such tight scrutiny, it will undoubtedly be harder for the Pubbies to pull off the kind of mass election-stealing that may have occurred undetected in 2000. (Though of course, they’re trying with their voter intimidation tactics, and Democratic registration-destroying tactics.) So the net effect of the increased scrutiny will be to hurt the Pubbie numbers, as they won’t benefit from the same shenanigans they benefited from in 2000. Which dramatically improves Kerry’s chances. It’s just speculation of course, but something to think about … 🆒 ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/189 "2004-10-27T16:25:55Z")
Oops. Gonna have to work on my reading comprehension skills. The typical 30% to 47% turnout in Georgia is among _all eligible voters_, NOT registered voters (a smaller subset). The predicted 72% turnout among registered voters is still remarkably high though, and (I think) unaccounted-for in most polls. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 27, 2004, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/190 "2004-10-27T16:33:47Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > Oops. Gonna have to work on my reading comprehension skills. > > The typical 30% to 47% turnout in Georgia is among _all eligible voters_, NOT registered voters (a smaller subset). > > The predicted 72% turnout among registered voters is still remarkably high though, and (I think) unaccounted-for in most polls. yeah, be nice of Denise Majette can give Johnny Isakson a surprise, though Isakson’s actually one of the more moderate, intelligent Repubs, so even if he wins, it’s not like we’ll have another crazed Zell Miller type to contend with. Doubt if anything can get Georgia in the Kerry column, but we’ll see one way or the other, real soon now. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2004, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/191 "2004-10-29T15:46:40Z")
Last night on the Daily Show, Zogby himself (the man who runs the Zogby poll) predicted a Kerry win based on the undecideds going Kerry’s way (apparently, undecided usually go for the challenger). ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/192 "2004-10-30T17:40:15Z")
> [@Evil Captor](#): > > Last night on the Daily Show, Zogby himself (the man who runs the Zogby poll) predicted a Kerry win based on the undecideds going Kerry’s way (apparently, undecided usually go for the challenger). I hope to goddess so: [http://www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) Zogby has Bush ahead in Michigan and Ohio. However, the undecides if they vote mostly for Kerry could turn that around. But its looking bleak for Kerry now. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/193 "2004-10-30T18:03:24Z")
The new [Newsweek poll](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/) has Bush up nationwide 6 points among likely voters, and four points among registered voters. The margin of error of the poll is ±4, putting the first result outside the margin of error (the article about the poll gets this wrong). The Iowa Electronic market shows a sharp spike upwards for Bush immediately after the Bin Laden tape aired. I think the polls tomorrow and Monday are going to show increasing gains for Bush. If I were betting on this today, I’d bet about 60-40 that Bush wins. ---
**Author:** ![rfgdxm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c0e974/32.png) [@rfgdxm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rfgdxm)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/194 "2004-10-30T19:36:29Z")
> [@Sam Stone](#): > > The new [Newsweek poll](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6367631/site/newsweek/) has Bush up nationwide 6 points among likely voters, and four points among registered voters. The margin of error of the poll is ±4, putting the first result outside the margin of error (the article about the poll gets this wrong). I’ve got serious doubts about that Newsweek poll. If Newsweek is right, Zogby is all wet. Zogby has Bush and Kerry tied at 47% each. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/195 "2004-10-30T19:52:23Z")
Of possible interest is this flash from the past: Wolf Blitzer on CNN just before the Big Ooops of 2000… > [@](#): > > …BLITZER: And now, let’s take a look at the latest poll numbers. The new CNN/“USA Today” Gallup Tracking Poll results are being released at this hour. It shows George W. Bush with 48 percent, Al Gore 43 percent, Ralph Nader with 4 percent, Pat Buchanan with 1 percent. > > And those numbers are similar to other tracking polls. Take a look: ABC’s poll has Bush at 49 percent, Gore at 45 percent; The Washington Post, Bush at 48 percent, Gore at 46 percent; the NBC-Wall Street Journal tracking poll, Bush at 47 percent, Gore 44 percent. And both the CBS and MSNBC-Reuters-Zogby tracking polls have Bush at 46, Gore at 44 percent… Disclaimer: from the _Daily Kos_ site, admittedly a member of the Reality Based Community, with no link provided save a reference to Nexis. He could be fibbing, but I doubt it. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2004, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/196 "2004-10-30T20:32:27Z")
And this just in as well: From _Faux News_ > [@](#): > > With less than a week remaining in the race for the White House, incumbent George W. Bush leads Democratic challenger Sen. John Kerry by 47 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, according to a FOX News poll released Saturday. The president’s lead is well within the poll’s margin of error. > > These new poll results show a slight dip in polling conducted Wednesday and Thursday night when Bush topped Kerry by 50 percent to 45 percent… One cannot but be amused at the delicacy of language, when GeeDubya’s (Praise the Leader!) lead drops by half, it is a “slight dip”. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/197 "2004-10-31T04:02:01Z")
**elucidator:** Was that Blitzer comment in 2000 before or after the ‘late hit’ about Bush’s DUI? Most analysts I’ve read attribute the DUI hit to erasing Bush’s 5 point margin. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 4:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/198 "2004-10-31T04:12:01Z")
According to the the site, _Daily Kos_, [http://www.dailykos.com/](http://www.dailykos.com/), the quote is from November 6, 2000, the day before. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/199 "2004-10-31T04:22:57Z")
Everybody is making predictions, so here is mine. Kerry 272, Bush 266. Kerry takes Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, DC, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii. Unless I am mistaken, that’s 279 E.V.'s. He’s leading in Iowa but Bush will just barely nose him out on Nov. 2. Bush takes everything else. He will actually deserve to lose Florida but will get the electoral votes via cheating. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 31, 2004, 4:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/200 "2004-10-31T04:28:07Z")
Over to _Talking Points Memo_, Mr. Marshall, the wonk’s wonk, is on the case, poll wise. He has the individual links available at [http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/](http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/) but I wont bother to repeat them here, you can follow them from above, but boiled down its: Concord Monitor Poll, released today, shows Kerry over Bush 49% to 46% in New Hampshire. Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, just released, shows Kerry 48%, Bush 45%. Star Tribune Minnesota Poll, just released, shows Kerry 49%, Bush 41%. I feel bestirring within a most unaccountable sensation, as through a glass brightly. I wonder if that’s the “hope” thingy I’ve heard so much about? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716.md?page=11)