# Who's really ahead in the polls, Bush or Kerry? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 29, 2004, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716 "2004-09-29T19:55:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/41 "2004-10-05T11:21:44Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > Many state have had record turnouts for voter registration. > > Lots of **new** voters = lots of voters **period** > > Big turnouts have almost always been bad for incumbents. The winds o’ change are blowin’… More on new registrations– [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6175529/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6175529/) [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3715458.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3715458.stm) ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/42 "2004-10-05T11:44:51Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > More on new registrations– > > [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6175529/](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6175529/) > > [http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3715458.stm](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3715458.stm) This morning on our local PR they mentioned that there have been 270,000 new Republicans and 265,000 new Democrats registered in Florida (compared with 77,000 total for the last election). So you certainly can’t expect all newly elected voters to go for Kerry. In Florida it seems whoever gets out the vote will probably win. A key point in Florida is that it is very easy to qualify as a Florida resident. This should play more to the Republican than the Democrats, as there are a large number of part-time residents whose vote might count more here than in their home state. NY Republicans, for example, will have no impact on the NY electoral votes but could easily decide the outcome by registering in the county of their winter home. ---
**Author:** ![Mal\_Adroit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df788c/32.png) [@Mal\_Adroit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mal_Adroit)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/43 "2004-10-05T13:11:04Z")
> [@spoke](#): > > Bush is presumed by some on the left to be a dim bulb. He is not. Take him lightly at your peril. Actually, he should never be taken lightly precisely because he _is_ a dim bulb. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 1:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/44 "2004-10-05T13:23:51Z")
Anybody who scored over 1200 on his SATs in the era when Bush took them is not a dim bulb. He may be tongue-tied. He may be uninformed. But he is not stupid. ---
**Author:** ![Mal\_Adroit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df788c/32.png) [@Mal\_Adroit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mal_Adroit)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/45 "2004-10-05T13:47:53Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > 1200 on his SATs Color me skeptical. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/46 "2004-10-05T13:57:44Z")
> [@Moody Bastard](#): > > Color me skeptical. [The Master speaks.](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/010622.html) Bush may be incurious. He may be ill-informed. He may be lazy. But stupid he ain’t. ---
**Author:** ![Mal\_Adroit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/df788c/32.png) [@Mal\_Adroit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mal_Adroit)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/47 "2004-10-05T14:39:09Z")
Think you misread my comment. I’m not skeptical of his official score; he was officially a member of the National Guard, too. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/48 "2004-10-05T15:30:38Z")
Update from [http://www.electoral-vote.com/](http://www.electoral-vote.com/), 10/5/04: > [@](#): > > American Research Group has more data on the debate. Kerry gained in all three panels they used. In the random telephone interviews, Kerry now leads Bush 49% to 46%. > > The Gallup Poll puts them even at 49% to 49%, a big change from previous Gallup polls. > > Zogby gives Bush a 1% lead. He also says that according to his poll taken Oct. 1-3, people think Kerry won the first debate by a margin of 2 to 1. > > Pew puts Bush ahead 48% to 41% among registered voters. > > CBS says they are tied. In short, we are in a very volatile period. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/49 "2004-10-05T16:22:40Z")
Regarding Bush’s intelligence…like anything else you use it or lose it. OK, so when he went to school he got some decent SATs. But he also had the benefits of going to Philips Andover Academy. You can’t be brain dead to get into such a school and generally students that attend such an exclusive school (their [notable alums](http://www.andover.edu/about_andover/notable_alums.htm) are quite impressive) are going to do quite well on their college entrance exams. So let’s stipulate that coming out of high school, he had above average intelligence. But has it withered? I happen to think so. You may not. Unless he submits to a fresh IQ test, we aren’t going to know. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/50 "2004-10-05T16:29:13Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > Unless he submits to a fresh IQ test, we aren’t going to know. And that’s assuming IQ means anything at all, as a valid measure of personal cognitive ability. We’ve been debating that in this thread – [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=277940](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=277940) – and opinion remains divided (in the Doper community, and in the scientific community). ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/51 "2004-10-05T16:35:53Z")
Still don’t buy the idea that Bush is stupid. He’s just ignorant. And he’s less ignorant now than when he entered the White House. The global situation has forced him to learn _some_ things about world politics at least, but he still strikes me as woefully uninformed. But again, that doesn’t mean he lacks intelligence. And it would be a huge mistake to underestimate him going into the second debate. Bush is a slacker, but after that first debate he will be highly motivated to perform better in the second round. Don’t take him lightly. We slackers can be dangerous when riled. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/52 "2004-10-05T16:53:31Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Update from [http://www.electoral-vote.com/](http://www.electoral-vote.com/), 10/5/04: Ironically. all of the polls you just quoted show the race neck and neck. But the electoral vote link seems to show that Bush has strengthened in the EC. How is that possible? Re: Bush’s intelligence, I’m willing to grant that he’s not an idiot (although I got a lot better SAT scores, and I’m scarcely a genius, nor did I get into an Ivy). Its more likely he’s just incredibly stubborn and inarticulate. They must have coached him before the debate to stay on his talking points, and he did so to his own detriment. His handler’s need to “Let Bush be Bush” if he’s going to stand a chance in the next one. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/53 "2004-10-05T16:57:03Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > Ironically. all of the polls you just quoted show the race neck and neck. But the electoral vote link seems to show that Bush has strengthened in the EC. How is that possible? It is possible because the EC system (which gives each state two votes for its two U.S. senators, plus x votes for its x representatives) inflates the voting strength of underpopulated states in the West and Lower Midwest, where Bush has solid support. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/54 "2004-10-05T17:01:01Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It is possible because the EC system (which gives each state two votes for its two U.S. senators, plus x votes for its x representatives) inflates the voting strength of underpopulated states in the West and Lower Midwest, where Bush has solid support. I understand that. My point was that Bush seems to have lost support (even if he still leads) in just about every recent poll. But I could swear that his EC lead has increased, quite a bit. Which would indicate that he only lost support in states that he’d already lost and picked up much offsetting support in swing states. I’ve not seen any data to indicate that, so my second guess is just a general lag in the EC site. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/55 "2004-10-05T17:13:27Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I understand that. My point was that Bush seems to have lost support (even if he still leads) in just about every recent poll. But I could swear that his EC lead has increased, quite a bit. Which would indicate that he only lost support in states that he’d already lost and picked up much offsetting support in swing states. I’ve not seen any data to indicate that, so my second guess is just a general lag in the EC site. If you read the text below the electoral map in the linked site, you’ll see that the site is using 7-day averages for state-by-state polls, which “introduces lag in responding to current events.” Check the map again this time next week to get an idea of the effect the debates are having. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/56 "2004-10-05T17:13:54Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I’ve not seen any data to indicate that, so my second guess is just a general lag in the EC site. Most data on both [http://www.electoral-vote.com/](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) and [http://www.race2004.net/](http://www.race2004.net/) are based on pre-debate state-by-state polls; but the new national polls showing the candidates neck-and-neck were conducted after the debate. Check both sites on, say, Friday and you might see a notable change in Kerry’s favor. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/57 "2004-10-05T17:14:08Z")
I think the best term for Bush is “self-absorbed”. It’s “all about _him_”. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/58 "2004-10-05T17:18:21Z")
> [@Bosda Di'Chi of Tricor](#): > > I think the best term for Bush is “self-absorbed”. > > It’s “all about _him_”. :dubious: That’s to be expected, **Bosda.** That description also fits Kerry, and Clinton, and Gore, and Bush Sr., and Reagan, and even the saintly Jimmy Carter to a lesser degree. It’s really hard for anybody who does not fit that description to rise to the top in politics. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/59 "2004-10-05T17:23:32Z")
> [@spoke-](#): > > If you read the text below the electoral map in the linked site, you’ll see that the site is using 7-day averages for state-by-state polls, which “introduces lag in responding to current events.” Check the map again this time next week to get an idea of the effect the debates are having. I did just go back and re-read it. I think that his change from 7-days to 30-days and back again to 7-days is what caused the large swings I noticed in the EC vote. I’ll check it all again on Saturday. One other thing that really caught my attention is that right now the site predicts 49 Democrats, 50 Republicans and 1 independent in the Senate. Anyone know off hand who the independent would be and who they’re more likely to side with in votes? I ask because if this is essentially a “split” Senate then the VP position takes on a huge significance. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2004, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/60 "2004-10-05T17:28:38Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > One other thing that really caught my attention is that right now the site predicts 49 Democrats, 50 Republicans and 1 independent in the Senate. Anyone know off hand who the independent would be and who they’re more likely to side with in votes? I ask because if this is essentially a “split” Senate then the VP position takes on a huge significance. The independent would be Jim Jeffords, the former Republican. We’ve got a thread going on whether the Democrats will win control of the Senate – [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=279089](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=279089). See also [http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct03.html](http://www.electoral-vote.com/oct/oct03.html), which predicts “If the Senate election were held today [10/3/04], the Democrats would take control of the Senate, 52-48 (counting independent Sen. Jeffords as a Democrat, since he caucuses with the Democrats).” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716.md?page=4)