# Who's really ahead in the polls, Bush or Kerry? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 29, 2004, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716 "2004-09-29T19:55:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2004, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/81 "2004-10-07T19:45:19Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > šŸ˜• BG, isnā€™t the current tally on your site Kerry 253 Bush 264?? Am I not reading this thing correctly or has it changed since you last posted??? > > -XT Youā€™re right, my mistake, I transposed the names. Subconscious wishful thinking, I guess. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 10:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/82 "2004-10-08T10:57:39Z")
> [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > I still wish that average sample size was larger. I always like to see at least 1000. Me too. But the reality is that polling costs money, and thereā€™s a limit to how much theyā€™re going to spend on a poll of one state. Still, I think thereā€™s a good argument that if theyā€™re going to interview a few hundred people to poll a small state like NH or NV, then they should be willing to go up to a sample of 1000+, every now and then, for a contested large state such as OH, FL, or PA. Badnarik: While Iā€™m certainly hoping that Badnarik will become a refuge, on Election Day, for conservatives who just canā€™t bear voting for Bush, I donā€™t have high hopes. I think his name, of all things, is a handicap for him. It practically rhymes with ā€˜apparatchikā€™; my recurring assumption earlier this year, when Iā€™d hear the names of the minor-party candidates get rattled off, was that he must be the Socialist Workersā€™ Party candidate. Iā€™ve gotten past that (although I still think of him as ā€˜Boris Badnarikā€™), but then Iā€™m a political junkie. When conservatives shoot the shit, and they get to the point of saying, ā€œThereā€™s no way in hell Iā€™d vote for Kerry, but itā€™s becoming harder and harder to bring myself to vote for Bush,ā€ itā€™s difficult for me to envision the next line, ā€œmaybe Iā€™ll vote for Badnarik instead,ā€ being a natural, and the nameā€™s the reason. Itā€™s irrational, but humans are irrational. And IMHO, it will be a stumbling block to the sort of buildup of chatter that would make it more likely for conservatives to pull the leverā€¦well, ok, touch the screen, or whateverā€¦for him on November 2. If he pulls as much as 1% in a small swing state such as NV, or 0.5% in a large swing state such as OH or FL, Iā€™d be extremely surprised. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 1:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/83 "2004-10-08T13:19:17Z")
I donā€™t know. Speaking as a conservativeā€¦ apparently, paleoconservative, specifically, Iā€™ve been told, I tended to vote Libertarian if I didnā€™t like the Republican candidate. I did, in fact, vote for, ahā€¦ Brown? last election. This year, Iā€™m voting for Kerry. But a _lot_ of people who are Republicans that I know, are saying that they just canā€™t vote for Bush. Spread spectrum of age and financial situation. (Though they tend to range from well off to very well off, with dips into college-destitute but well-off someday) A few of them like Kerry. Some of them say they wonā€™t vote for him, though. Theyā€™re probably going to vote Libertarian. Except, thereā€™s the whole perspective on how the party wants to legalize heroin, and a lot of people have bad feelings about that. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/84 "2004-10-08T13:44:44Z")
latest [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) has Kerry with 280 votes. Interesting. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/85 "2004-10-08T15:55:41Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > latest [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) has Kerry with 280 votes. Interesting. > > Daniel I havenā€™t been able to get that site to come up for the past half-hour or so. But this site has it at Bush 295, Kerry 243: [http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html](http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html) ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/86 "2004-10-08T15:59:04Z")
Check the date, Lib - 10/3. The Debate 1 bounce isnā€™t there yet. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/87 "2004-10-08T16:30:14Z")
For the first time in a while, today (10/8/04) [http://www.race2004.net/](http://www.race2004.net/) has Kerry solidly ahead of Bush in electoral votes ā€“ 243 for Kerry, 196 for Bush. But thatā€™s with 99 e-votes still counted as Undecided. Florida is now ranked as Undecided. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/88 "2004-10-08T16:36:40Z")
They run this sidebar, though: > [@](#): > > If the election were held today we project: > > Kerry wins the presidency with 290 electoral votes. Bush places second with 248 electoral votes. > > Kerry wins the popular vote with 55,502,073 votes (49.73%). Bush places second with 54,028,392 votes (48.41%). > > If Colorado ballot initiative #36 passes, 4 electoral votes switch from Bush to Kerry. The new total is 294 for Kerry, 244 for Bush. > > Current polling data suggests the initiative is likely to pass. But of course we can dismiss anything that starts with the words ā€œIf the election were held today.ā€ It ainā€™t. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/89 "2004-10-08T16:37:01Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Florida is now ranked as Undecided. I just noticed that youā€™re in Tampa, weā€™re moving to Westchase next week. So, are you undecided as well? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/90 "2004-10-08T16:39:35Z")
> [@Liberal](#): > > I havenā€™t been able to get that site to come up for the past half-hour or so. But this site has it at Bush 295, Kerry 243: > > [http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html](http://www.electionprojection.com/elections2004.html) There appears to be a site mirror at [http://www.electoral-vote2.com](http://www.electoral-vote2.com). Daniel ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/91 "2004-10-08T16:49:16Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I just noticed that youā€™re in Tampa, weā€™re moving to Westchase next week. So, are you undecided as well? Not at all. Iā€™m a frustrated Socialist who always votes Democrat. (Why waste your vote?) ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/92 "2004-10-08T17:58:30Z")
The current Rasmussen electoral projection has it for Bush 240 to Kerry 169. [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/) You might also note that Rasmussen hasnā€™t linked to the story regarding the infamous ā€œhumpā€ on Bushā€™s back during the debates ā€” unlike some of the other ā€œunbiasedā€ electoral college projection sites - ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/93 "2004-10-08T18:50:42Z")
> [@Tigers2B1](#): > > The current Rasmussen electoral projection has it for Bush 240 to Kerry 169. > > [http://www.rasmussenreports.com/](http://www.rasmussenreports.com/) > > You might also note that Rasmussen hasnā€™t linked to the story regarding the infamous ā€œhumpā€ on Bushā€™s back during the debates ā€” unlike some of the other ā€œunbiasedā€ electoral college projection sites - Well, gee, then, that alone proves theyā€™re more reliable. Iā€™ll just note that they give Bush exactly one more vote than [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) gives him. And since figuring out their methodology costs $95, Iā€™m going to consider them just one more data point, not the Holy Grail of election predictions. Daniel ---
**Author:** ![Tigers2B1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/9fc29f/32.png) [@Tigers2B1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tigers2B1)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/94 "2004-10-08T18:56:15Z")
> [@Left Hand of Dorkness](#): > > Well, gee, then, that alone proves theyā€™re more reliable. > > Iā€™ll just note that they give Bush exactly one more vote than [www.electoral-vote.com](http://www.electoral-vote.com) gives him. And since figuring out their methodology costs $95, Iā€™m going to consider them just one more data point, not the Holy Grail of election predictions. > > Daniel And gave Kerry 111 more votes. Oh, and where did I say ā€œthat aloneā€ makes them morre reliable - just another point to consider in addition to the admitted support for Kerry some of the site owners have indicated. I think pointing to such a far fetched allegation, on your otherwise ā€œneutral site,ā€ speaks for itself. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/95 "2004-10-08T20:27:52Z")
Son of a gun! [http://www.electoral-vote.com/](http://www.electoral-vote.com/) is back up (10/8/04) and it does, indeed, put Kerry ahead of Bush, 280 to 239! šŸ˜ƒ Kindasorta. With the usual caveats, reservations and qualifications: > [@](#): > > There are 48 new polls today in a total of 25 states. The bottom line is that Kerry is continuing to surge. He now has more than the 270 votes in the electoral college needed to be elected president. However, his margin is razor thin in many states. Still, this is a remarkable comeback. From the electoral college graph you can see how steep his rise has been. All of this gain is undoubtedly due to the first debate. Needless to say, tonightā€™s debate will be extremely important for both candidates. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/96 "2004-10-08T20:40:15Z")
Nothing to it, as it turns out. It involves Gaussian elimination (non-math-geeks: you donā€™t have to care about that), but [this cute little gizmo will do the Gaussian stuff for you, so you donā€™t have to](http://alumnus.caltech.edu/~chamness/equation/equation.html). Necessary condition: the poll has to tell you how well the two leading candidates are doing among Democrats, Republicans, and Independents. But assuming ity tells you that, you can find the pollā€™s party ID numbers just by plugging stuff in. In the following example, Iā€™m using Bush and Kerry as the two leading candidates, but if the same data is available on a Senate race, change the names as appropriate. The link Iā€™ve provided above has three rows with four boxes for you to fill in per row. Top row: put 1ā€™s in all four boxes. For the second and third rows, turn your percentages into decimals. (So when I say ā€˜%ā€™ below, 85% is .85, not 85.) Then: Second row, first box: % of Dem vote Bush gets. Second row, second box: % of GOP vote Bush gets. Second row, third box: % of Ind vote Bush gets. Second row, fourth box: % of total vote Bush gets. Third row, first box: % of Dem vote Kerry gets. Third row, second box: % of GOP vote Kerry gets. Third row, third box: % of Ind vote Kerry gets. Third row, fourth box: % of total vote Kerry gets. Then the X, Y, and Z boxes at the bottom will give you the % of the sample that identified as Dem, GOP, and Independent. Itā€™s that easy. _An example:_ The most recent Pew poll has Kerry leading 85%-9% among Democrats, Bush leading 90%-3% among Republicans, and Bush leading 42%-39% among independents, for an overall 48%-41% Bush lead. _First row: all 1ā€™s._ No matter what. Bush has 9% of the Dems, 90% of the Reps, and 42% of the Inds in this poll, for 48% total. So the _second row is .09, .90, .42, and .48._ Kerry has 85% of the Dems, 3% of the Reps, and 39% of the Inds in this poll, for 41% total. So the _third row is .85, .03, .39, and .41._ Plug in those numbers, and itā€™ll tell you that the Pew pollā€™s sample had **30.6% Democrats, 33.5% Republicans, and 35.9% Independents**. In my next post, Iā€™ll explain the math behind it. Non-math-geeks can skip right past that part. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/97 "2004-10-08T21:03:04Z")
Weā€™re simultaneously solving 3 equations in 3 unknowns, which is no big deal. The unknowns are the percentages (in decimal form) of Dems, Reps, and Inds in a given pollā€™s sample. Weā€™ll call these unknowns D, R, and I, respectively. One of the three equations is automatic: D+R+I=1: the number of Dems plus the number of Pubbies plus the number of Inds has to add up to 100%. Or (to format it the way weā€™ll want it later) \*\*1.00D + 1.00R + 1.00I = 1.00. \*\* The other two depend on the pollā€™s providing how the vote is split by party. To return to my example of the most recent Pew poll, Bush has 9% of the Dems, 90% of the Reps, and 42% of the Inds in this poll, for 48% total. His 48% total has to be made up of the component pieces: the fraction of Democrats who support him, times the fraction of Democrats in the poll sample, plus fraction of Republicans who support him, times the fraction of Republicans in the poll sample, plus fraction of Independents who support him, times the fraction of Independents in the poll sample. That shortens to **0.09D + 0.90R + 0.42I = 0.48**. Similarly, Kerry has 85% of the Dems, 3% of the Reps, and 39% of the Inds in this poll, for 41% total. And by the same process, thatā€™s: **0.85D + 0.03R + 0.39I = 0.41**. So that gives us three equations in three unknowns: **1.00D + 1.00R + 1.00I = 1.00 0.09D + 0.90R + 0.42I = 0.48 0.85D + 0.03R + 0.39I = 0.41** In matrix form, thatā€™s **1.00 1.00 1.00 | 1.00 0.09 0.90 0.42 | 0.48 0.85 0.03 0.39 | 0.41** Then you do Gaussian row reduction to get the answers. ---
**Author:** ![Liberal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Liberal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Liberal)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 9:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/98 "2004-10-08T21:03:04Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Check the date, Lib - 10/3. The Debate 1 bounce isnā€™t there yet. Okay. Now, Danielā€™s site comes up for me. Indeed, they are interesting numbers. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/99 "2004-10-08T21:35:04Z")
Still- ā€œtoo close to callā€. Good news for Kerry, yes, but thereā€™s still 25 days until the election, and the lead is hazy and diminutive. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2004, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716/100 "2004-10-08T21:42:18Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > Still- ā€œtoo close to callā€. Good news for Kerry, yes, but thereā€™s still 25 days until the election, and the lead is hazy and diminutive. Exactly. Weā€™ve got two more debates, at a minimum, to go through; thereā€™s plenty more news to come out; and who knows what the minor candidates might do that might affect the election. Daniel [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-really-ahead-in-the-polls-bush-or-kerry/266716.md?page=6)