# Who's to blame if Biden loses? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 7, 2024, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233 "2024-05-07T18:41:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 30
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/694 "2024-05-21T14:36:29Z")
> [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > > [@Babale](#): > > > > …because Biden won’t call me a genocider, yes. > > Perhaps you didn’t specify me labeling anyone a “genocider”, but you did say this, which confuses me more It was a shorthand way to refer to people who will not be voting for Biden because they dislike his support of Israel. I didn’t think that would be confusing. But if it was, I apologize. I think those people are short sighted and misguided because _even if they dislike Biden’s policy_, they should consider the fact that he has been an outspoken moderating force on Israeli policy and has bent over backwards to ensure aid comes into Gaza - things that Donald Trump will _most certainly_ not do. > [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > I could be swayed into altering my perspective on certain details, still. But yeah, I think enough is enough when it’s our money. We can try to have an honest conversation about that elsewhere, though. I certainly have no interest in debating that topic in this thread; that would be a major hijack and there are plenty of open topics to discuss it. My point is, if you think Biden isn’t doing enough against Israel or for Palestinians, then not voting for Biden and getting Trump elected would be _an immensely stupid thing for you to do_, because Trump is not going to be _better for Palestinians_. ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/695 "2024-05-21T14:40:31Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > My point is, if you think Biden isn’t doing enough against Israel or for Palestinians, then not voting for Biden and getting Trump elected would be _an immensely stupid thing for you to do_, because Trump is not going to be _better for Palestinians_. We can, for sure, agree on this. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/696 "2024-05-21T14:45:29Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > _even if they dislike Biden’s policy_ Speaking of, I hope everyone has seen conservatives calling Biden a leader of Hamas because of the policies some folks are insisting isn’t enough against Israel or for Palestinians. ---
**Author:** ![MyFootsZZZ](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/myfootszzz/32/12580_2.png) [@MyFootsZZZ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MyFootsZZZ)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/698 "2024-05-21T14:51:08Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > Speaking of, I hope everyone has seen conservatives calling Biden a leader of Hamas because of the policies some folks are insisting isn’t enough against Israel or for Palestinians. …but it never would have happened in the first place, under Trump. It’s not like he had any part in this. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/699 "2024-05-21T14:51:23Z")
> [@SyncoSmalls](#): > > If no, then you have to admit to being biased. You first 😊 Seriously: Yes, of course I am biased. That said, I do have backup that informs my views. It’s beyond the scope of this thread, but I have covered it frequently in the “ **Is polling broken?** ” thread, which I’ve seen that you have posted recently. You can search my username in that thread (magnifying glass icon at top right, type in my username and specify “in this topic”) and get much of that backup all at one shot. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/700 "2024-05-21T14:55:52Z")
Moderating: > [@MyFootsZZZ](#): > > I don’t believe YOU are good faith, right now. This is a personal attack. You know those are not allowed. Knock it off. To both @Babale and @MyFootsZZZ, drop the side discussion on the situation in Gaza. There are plenty of other threads for that specific discussion. You’ve made your points with respect to its impact on potential Biden voters. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/701 "2024-05-21T15:22:39Z")
The polls this early have very little predictive value. It’s fine to have an opinion either way, but yours is really no more than a guess. So is mine, by the way. ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/703 "2024-05-21T16:07:00Z")
And, laying polling aside altogether, there is circumstantial information to weigh. > [@President Joe Biden and the runup to the 2024 election](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/president-joe-biden-and-the-runup-to-the-2024-election/954384/1372): > > Some commentators are looking over the horizon a bit without invoking candidate poll numbers at all, spelling out other indicators to how the general election may go down. The Status Kuo (Jay Kuo) and The Big Picture Substacks collaborated on the article linked below. I’ll list the section heads (despite ten sections, it’s a quick read) to serve as a summary: 1. Biden has an easier job ahead than Trump 2. Biden needs to re-win just 3 of 5 battleground states 3. The GOP is wedged on major issu… ---
**Author:** ![bordelond](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bordelond/32/150_2.png) [@bordelond](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bordelond)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 4:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/704 "2024-05-21T16:15:52Z")
> [@On another topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1001913/97): > > In this election, an 81 year old woman who was hemorrhaging support but **treated battleground states as optional pitstops** … While I understand you were presenting a counterfactual here, it should be noted that Joe Biden is most definitely not doing the bolded. He and his campaign are working the battleground states in earnest. > **[In Las Vegas campaign stop, Biden details plans to make housing more...](https://nevadacurrent.com/2024/03/19/in-las-vegas-campaign-stop-biden-details-plans-to-make-housing-more-affordable/)** > > Amid a growing housing crisis in Nevada, as with the rest of the country, President Joe Biden called for investing billions of dollars to build more affordable units, expanding assistance for unhoused and low-income residents, and helping first-time... > **[Biden visits Arizona: President 'tired of being at the end of the supply chain'](https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/03/20/joe-biden-in-arizona-live-coverage/73036185007/)** > > President Joe Biden appeared at Intel Corp. in Chandler to announce billions of dollars in grants to the semiconductor company. > **[Biden lauds new Microsoft center on the same site where Trump's Foxconn...](https://apnews.com/article/biden-microsoft-tech-election-2024-ec3501d041d7b8b563563b22fcc23db5)** > > President Joe Biden has laced into Donald Trump over a failed project that was supposed to bring thousands of new jobs into southeastern Wisconsin. > **[Biden campaign ramps up outreach to Black voters in Wisconsin as some...](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-outreach-wisconsin-black-voters/)** > > President Biden met with Black voters earlier this week in Wisconsin, where the race against former President Trump is close. > **[President Biden's Powerful Morehouse Speech, The ICC's Arrest Warrants,...](https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/bidens-powerful-morehouse-speech)** > > Welcome New Subscribers!/We Get Together Wed at 7pm ET - Register Today > **['He’s my President': How some attendees at NAACP Freedom Fund Dinner feel...](https://www.wxyz.com/news/hes-my-president-how-some-attendees-at-naacp-freedom-fund-dinner-feel-about-bidens-re-election)** > > President Joe Biden spent Sunday afternoon in Detroit, where he was the keynote speaker at the annual NAACP Freedom Fund dinner. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/705 "2024-05-21T23:02:05Z")
For one thing, the stubborn protest vote in the latest GOP primaries for Nikki Haley, who dropped out of the race over two months ago: > She saw some of her highest marks yet Tuesday with 20 percent of the vote in Maryland and 18 percent in Nebraska as of the latest vote count. That came a week after [she reached almost 22 percent](https://elections2024.thehill.com/primaries/indiana/2024-05-07-in-gop-primary-president-0/) in Indiana. > **[Haley protest votes raise red flags for Trump](https://www.newsnationnow.com/politics/haley-protest-votes-raise-red-flags-for-trump/)** > > The tens of thousands of primary votes cast in favor of Nikki Haley over the last several months are underscoring the apparent discontent many Republicans feel with former President Trump as their … These were closed primaries for registered Republicans only, these aren’t crossover Democrats and independents. Not all of these disaffected Republicans are going to vote for Biden, but if a significant fraction of them stay home, Trump is toast. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [May 21, 2024, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/706 "2024-05-21T23:02:22Z")
> [@On another topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1001913/97): > > > [@On another topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1001913/97): > > > > In this election, an 81 year old woman who was hemorrhaging support but **treated battleground states as optional pitstops** … > > While I understand you were presenting a counterfactual here, it should be noted that Joe Biden is most definitely not doing the bolded. He and his campaign are working the battleground states in earnest. Thank you for putting in the time to bring us facts. They are a refreshing change from the unsupported claims we’re seeing too often in this thread. > [@Babale](#): > > Frankly, I don’t care if a voter passes on Biden because of Gaza, because they want a single player healthcare system, or because he hasn’t done enough on climate change; they’re still tossing our country to Trump. Yes. And you could add ‘_or because they don’t like something Hillary Clinton, or any other person who doesn’t work for the Biden Administration, has said_.’ When we assemble the excuses people give for declining to vote for Biden we basically see… delusions. For virtually every such justification offered, the reality that Trump Would Be Worse is being ignored. And the further reality that even voters in blue states are helping Trump by declining to vote Biden is never admitted. (The help comes in two main ways: a popular vote that distorts the actual will of the mainstream, and a declaration of voting non-Biden that may influence others to do the same–in other words, pro-Trump advocacy.) It’s hard to respect those who won’t be open and honest about their wish to see Mr. Dictator-on-Day-One elected, but instead hide behind these flimsy pretexts. I’ll admit there is a difference between those who cite the excuses for not voting Biden in a cynical attempt to influence the votes of others, and those who cite the excuses because they’ve actually fooled **themselves** that a Trump Presidency will be ‘no big deal.’ The first are dishonest and the second are head-in-sand foolish. There’s no need to like Biden or think he’s wonderful or your favorite person or the guy you want to drink a beer with or the living embodiment of all your most-cherished values. There’s simply a need to use your vote as what it is: a tool to get you as close as possible–given the two actual choices we have–to what you want. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/707 "2024-05-22T01:09:20Z")
> [@On another topic](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/1001913/98): > > I see plenty of reasons. The interviews I cited, the articles I cited, and the current polling data. So you’re saying that the fact that Biden isn’t polling ahead by 50% is evidence that he’s not really trying? > [@SyncoSmalls](#): > > If the polls have been rigged to make Trump more popular than he is, this actually should help motivate Dems to vote (less complacency). The better Trump does in polling, the better it is for _Biden_? ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/708 "2024-05-22T01:50:10Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The polls this early have very little predictive value. It’s fine to have an opinion either way, but yours is really no more than a guess. So is mine, by the way. Furthermore, the polls, such as they are, basically say its a coin flip between the two candidates. So it would be a guess even if they were accurately predictive of the future. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/710 "2024-05-22T11:17:56Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > When we assemble the excuses people give for declining to vote for Biden we basically see… delusions…. I just shared this part of your post (to the end of it) on Facebook (with proper attribution). I rarely get political there, but I will be doing so several times in coming months, as I happen to live in a state (Wisconsin) where every single vote will count big-time. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 11:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/711 "2024-05-22T11:21:20Z")
> [@SyncoSmalls](#): > > It would be better if they treated polling data as though its fact than to discount it. We have no idea how they’re treating polling data (and while public polling data are facts about the results of the poll, they’re not necessarily facts that tell us much about the state of the race, especially this early). Thankfully, the inner workings of the Biden campaign strategy are generally not publicly known. They could be doing exactly what you think they should be doing and we probably wouldn’t know about it (unless you think Biden should step down or run around screaming “oh no, we’re losing!”). ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 11:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/712 "2024-05-22T11:29:14Z")
If we don’t promote the idea that the polls showing Joe Biden as struggling are unassailable fact, how can we reinforce the idea that Joe Biden is struggling for future polls? ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 11:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/713 "2024-05-22T11:33:34Z")
> [@SyncoSmalls](#): > > It would be better if they treated polling data as though its fact than to discount it. Hear that Hillary? You were right all along! ---
**Author:** ![survinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@survinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/survinga)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 11:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/714 "2024-05-22T11:53:22Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > We have no idea how they’re treating polling data I think when Biden agreed to two debates recently, including one in June, he was showing that he knows he’s down in the polls. It is early, and there are still a lot of undecided voters out there. But I think Biden’s campaign is not just disregarding these polls. And they shouldn’t. As imperfect as polling is, they’ve been tending to show that Biden is behind in the swing states he **has** to win. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 11:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/715 "2024-05-22T11:56:04Z")
> [@survinga](#): > > I think when Biden agreed to two debates recently, including one in June, he was showing that he knows he’s down in the polls. > > It is early, and there are still a lot of undecided voters out there. But I think Biden’s campaign is not just disregarding these polls. And they shouldn’t. As imperfect as polling is, they’ve been tending to show that Biden is behind in the swing states he **has** to win. I don’t think they’re disregarding the polls either, but the debate stuff could have been planned already, could be meant to kick Trump when he’s down (in court), or could be based on a number of other strategies. ---
**Author:** ![survinga](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cab0a1/32.png) [@survinga](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/survinga)\ **Post date:** [May 22, 2024, 11:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233/716 "2024-05-22T11:58:32Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I don’t think they’re disregarding the polls either, but the debate stuff could have been planned already, could be meant to kick Trump when he’s down (in court), or could be based on a number of other strategies. The thing Biden has going for him is Trump. He needs to make this election about Trump as much as he can. If the election is only about Biden in people’s minds, I’m worried he’ll lose. Personally, I like Biden alot. But he’s never been super-popular, and I doubt he would have ever defeated anyone other than Trump. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233.md?page=29) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-to-blame-if-biden-loses/1001233.md?page=31)