# Who's Vulnerable in 2006? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 5, 2004, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193 "2004-11-05T15:34:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/21 "2004-11-07T04:51:30Z")
> [@Chance the Gardener](#): > > **flurb** —No confusion of Missouri and Minnesota. The demonizing of the Wellstone memorial rally as a crass political rally was a tactic used by right-wing commentators with success, and is said to have had effects on the race in Minnesota as well as the Missouri and South Dakota races (although Democratic Senator Tim Johnson won in South Dakota.) Republicans got a lot of mileage out of the Wellstone memorial, playing it up in several states, encouraging anti-Democrat feelings by misinterpreting what really went on there. > > Talent’s special election status might prove relevant in 2006; we’ll see. It all depends on what kind of a candidat the Democrats can come up with. I just hope someone else doesn’t have to die so that the Republicans can have another winning season in the upper Midwest. Minnesota has been trending Republican, yes; I’m worried about Dayton being able to hold on to his seat. **Governor Quinn** mentioned that Mark Kennedy might be challenging him, and I think he’d be a strong candidate. Gotcha. I’d argue, though, that the effect of the Wellstone memorial in other states was minimal. It’s always amazing to me that Senate and House races often end up turning not on national or ideological issues, but on particular local concerns or perceptions. BTW, who’s Governor Quinn? ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 5:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/22 "2004-11-07T05:41:23Z")
If there is a God, Santorum is toast in '06. I’ll be doing my part to make him a nice shade of burnt. ---
**Author:** ![TeaElle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8491ac/32.png) [@TeaElle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeaElle)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 10:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/23 "2004-11-07T10:58:58Z")
> [@Chance the Gardener](#): > > Joe Hoeffel ran a decent campaign this year, with his big problem being that he was up against Arlen Specter Oh, I don’t know about that. The fact that his own ads gave him no claim to fame except that he wasn’t Arlen Spector and the fact that his legislative history shows only one piece of sponsored legislation in 14 years (a bill to rename a post office) were much bigger problems than Spector himself, who ran a damned lackluster campaign according to all analyses. Rick Santorum has a _lot_ more going against him than Spector ever could (dull campaigning and the historical magic bullet theory notwithstanding) and whoever runs against him is undoubtedly going to make great political hay on Santorum’s repeated stupid comments about taxation (he’s intimated that the poor deserve to pay more taxes because they’re more reliant upon government programs) and of course, his rampant anti-gay bigotry. The Dems don’t have to run a strong candidate against Santorum at all, they just need one with enough cash to plaster the airwaves in the maroon parts of the state (the 55% Repub / 45% Dem counties) with idiotic quotes directly from Santorum’s mouth. And whoever beats Santorum in 2006 will face Phil English or Melissa Hart in 2012, whether they’re still on the Hill or not. They’re both being groomed for a Senate run, and have been from before they went to Washington and neither will stop until they get there, or go down swinging in an attempt. In fact, if Spector decides to retire in '10, which he very well may, there will be internal strife in the PA GOP as the English and Hart contingents duke it out over who will run for the seat. (But they won’t square off against one another in the primaries, because unity is the PA GOP watchword – see that lovely piece of Harrisburg engineered PR with Bush, Spector and Santorum all on one dias earlier this year.) In Texas, Mrs. Hutchison is almost a lock to retire, she has family issues. (Ailing elderly family members and, if I’m not confusing her with someone else – Mrs. Snowe? – she also just adopted a child, despite being, shall we say, a lady of a certain age.) Mr. Akaka from Hawaii has an infirm wife, though the infirmities of her husband haven’t taken Mrs. O’Connor off of the SCOTUS bench, so who knows? ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/24 "2004-11-07T16:43:21Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > BTW, who’s Governor Quinn? He’s the guy that made the 17th post in this thread. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/25 "2004-11-07T17:48:23Z")
> [@Governor Quinn](#): > > He’s the guy that made the 17th post in this thread. Doh! Sorry, Guvnah! ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/26 "2004-11-07T18:00:42Z")
> [@Chance the Gardener](#): > > **Ohio** —Mike DeWine, as others have pointed out, is a first-term incumbent in a swing state, which makes this race possibly competitive. He’s also a Republican shill in a state with plenty of Democrats in it. Fingerhut might run again, and I think Tim Ryan would make a good candidate. The Democrats definitely have a chance here. DeWine was elected in 1994 and re-elected in 2000. He’s not going anywhere unless he chooses to. ---
**Author:** ![raindog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/2bfe46/32.png) [@raindog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raindog)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/27 "2004-11-07T18:21:41Z")
> [@Abbie Carmichael](#): > > The only way I can see Byrd retiring is if he’s in a coma. He is not going to leave voluntarily. A coma didn’t stop Strom Thurmond… 😉 ---
**Author:** ![SpartanDC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b2d939/32.png) [@SpartanDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpartanDC)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 6:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/28 "2004-11-07T18:51:45Z")
2006 is not shaping up to be a boon for either party, especially in the Senate. Byrd and Kennedy will not retire; if they had it their way, they’d die right there on the Senate floor. But keep your eyes on Jon Corzine and Kay Bailey Hutchison. They both want to be governor of their respective states. The problem is that both these states have distinct leans to them, New Jersey being Democratic and Texas being Republican. So an actual party changeover, while possible, isn’t what I’d put my money on right now. DeWine is probably safe. The state’s other freshman senator, George Voinovich, won a second term in a landslide last week. While DeWine isn’t a former governor, I still get the impression he’s pretty popular. So I see very few Senators who, initially, appear vulnerable. Remember, no incumbent senators were defeated this cycle. I suspect any changeover in the Senate will come about because of retirements, and predicting those is pointless. As for the House… hell if I know. Given how gerrymandered our districts are these days, I wouldn’t expect much change unless you see something like 1994 happen again. If the Democrats want House control in the forseeable future, they should focus on gaining control of state legislatures, where the district maps will be redrawn in 2011. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/29 "2004-11-07T19:15:35Z")
> [@SNenc](#): > > Remember, no incumbent senators were defeated this cycle. I’m confused. Daschle? ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/30 "2004-11-07T19:28:35Z")
Hadn’t the Supreme Court asked the lower court to reconsider their ruling on the Texas redistricting. If this gets undone, then it could certainly help the Dems in the house. Also, Tom Delay only kept his seat by a few points with 55% of the vote this year. If the next two years legislative sessions don’t reflect well on him and he faces a strong challenger in 2006, he might be joining Daschle in the unemployed line. ---
**Author:** ![SpartanDC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b2d939/32.png) [@SpartanDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpartanDC)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/31 "2004-11-07T19:30:40Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I’m confused. Daschle? :smack: Excuse me, I need to go quit my job now. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Blalron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/35a633/32.png) [@Blalron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blalron)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/32 "2004-11-07T19:31:30Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Anything is possible. > > However, the Democrats will not get a net gain of six seats in the Senate without a dramtic shift in approach. > > If the reactions of the SDMB partisans are any indication, the resistance to such a change is large. People are much more comfortable here continuing to point out that Bush lied and people died. There have been a few voices counseling change, but the crowd is still sticking with the standard approach. > > Good. Hey, that plan was good. We just need to be louder and more shrill about it. That’s the ticket. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/33 "2004-11-07T19:35:27Z")
> [@SNenc](#): > > :smack: > > Excuse me, I need to go quit my job now. 😉 Hee. I was just sitting here, gaping at my monitor. For an instant, I started to think that perhaps I was dreaming about the whole election and it was really just Hallowe’en again. _sigh_ ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/34 "2004-11-07T19:36:09Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Hee. I was just sitting here, gaping at my monitor. For an instant, I started to think that perhaps I was dreaming about the whole election and it was really just Hallowe’en again. _sigh_ We’re not that lucky. ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/35 "2004-11-07T22:23:14Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Doh! > > Sorry, Guvnah! Don’t worry. I’m easy to ignore. Oh, **Malodorus** - even if Texas redistricting is overturned, a couple of those incumbent that lost their seats had barely won in 2002, so it may not be as sure a thing as you suggest. Besides, there is the issue of Al Green to handle. ---
**Author:** ![MsRobyn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/90ced4/32.png) [@MsRobyn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsRobyn)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2004, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/36 "2004-11-07T22:46:37Z")
> [@Malodorous](#): > > Hadn’t the Supreme Court asked the lower court to reconsider their ruling on the Texas redistricting. If this gets undone, then it could certainly help the Dems in the house. > > Also, Tom Delay only kept his seat by a few points with 55% of the vote this year. If the next two years legislative sessions don’t reflect well on him and he faces a strong challenger in 2006, he might be joining Daschle in the unemployed line. Delay is also having some ethical issues in Congress right now. Congress is now sufficiently Republican to make these issues go away, but a good-enough opponent can probably make some hay out of it. Robin ---
**Author:** ![Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/96bed5/32.png) [@Patty\_O\_Furniture](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Patty_O_Furniture)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/37 "2004-11-08T01:53:08Z")
> [@SNenc](#): > > Byrd and Kennedy will not retire; if they had it their way, they’d die right there on the Senate floor. Mr. Speaker, how much longer shall we permit Senator Byrd to have the floor? ---
**Author:** ![TeaElle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8491ac/32.png) [@TeaElle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeaElle)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 6:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/38 "2004-11-08T06:50:49Z")
> [@Patty O'Furniture](#): > > Mr. Speaker, how much longer shall we permit Senator Byrd to have the floor? “For as long as he’s sprawled out on it, I suppose. Where is that ambulance, anyway?” ---
**Author:** ![duffer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duffer/32/1026_2.png) [@duffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duffer)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/39 "2004-11-08T07:18:28Z")
> [@bup](#): > > All House seats are up in 2006. > > Isn’t Norm Coleman, Repulican from Minnesota, up in 2006? I’d say he’s not safe. Oh, I don’t know…I’d say he’s pretty [safe](http://coleman.senate.gov/). Anyone else we Pubs can count on winning? ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/40 "2004-11-08T14:20:48Z")
To add to the Govnah’s post, I think the 5th District in Indiana will be contested. It’s currently held by Julia Carson (D), but her health is incredibly poor. Hopefully, she’ll step down in 2006 and let someone else run, but she’s pretty stubborn. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193.md?page=3)