# Who's Vulnerable in 2006? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 5, 2004, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193 "2004-11-05T15:34:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 2:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/41 "2004-11-08T14:38:42Z")
> [@TeaElle](#): > > Rick Santorum has a _lot_ more going against him than Spector ever could (dull campaigning and the historical magic bullet theory notwithstanding) and whoever runs against him is undoubtedly going to make great political hay on Santorum’s repeated stupid comments about taxation (he’s intimated that the poor deserve to pay more taxes because they’re more reliant upon government programs) and of course, his rampant anti-gay bigotry. The Dems don’t have to run a strong candidate against Santorum at all, they just need one with enough cash to plaster the airwaves in the maroon parts of the state (the 55% Repub / 45% Dem counties) with idiotic quotes directly from Santorum’s mouth. Pennsylvania is a conservative state but not a Conservative one; if nothing else, leftish Philadephia keeps the state from tipping over (I can’t speak to Pittsburgh, as I’m a southeasterner). It wouldn’t surprise me to see Santorum get the boot if a reasonably competent opposition can organize itself. > [@Chance the Gardener](#): > > **Nebraska** —The very fact that Ben Nelson is a Democratic Senator in Nebraska necessarily makes his seat competitive. It’s Nebraska, so no matter how conservative Nelson may be, he’s effectively in a tight race. And yet Nebraska keeps electing Democratic governors and senators (note that Nelson followed in the footsteps of Bob Kerrey, a previous governor-then-senator). Again, the sizable urban areas of Lincoln and Omaha serve to take the edge off the rural right-wing contingent. It’s never a walk for a Democrat, but as long as there isn’t a yet another former football coach running against him Nelson should be okay. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/42 "2004-11-08T14:53:00Z")
> [@SNenc](#): > > DeWine is probably safe. The state’s other freshman senator, George Voinovich, won a second term in a landslide last week. While DeWine isn’t a former governor, I still get the impression he’s pretty popular. DeWine was Voinovich’s lieutenant governor. But in the Senate, DeWine has seniority over Voinovich. Politics is funny. DeWine is fairly safe, but not, I think, because he is particularly popular personally. I believe it has to do with the fact, that like Voinovich and Taft, DeWine’s a moderatish-Republican and an incumbent. Currently, that makes you unbeatable in Ohio. The Ohio Democratic party has been unable to run a serious statewide campaign since 1990 and I don’t expect them to have their act together by 2006. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/43 "2004-11-08T14:55:44Z")
> [@duffer](#): > > Oh, I don’t know…I’d say he’s pretty [safe](http://coleman.senate.gov/). Anyone else we Pubs can count on winning? I don’t get it. How is a link to his home page a cite for that? Anyway, Coleman’s seat is safe in 2006, because his term doesn’t expire until 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/44 "2004-11-08T15:40:36Z")
> [@MsRobyn](#): > > Delay is also having some ethical issues in Congress right now. Congress is now sufficiently Republican to make these issues go away, but a good-enough opponent can probably make some hay out of it. Good point. There is an investigation into Delay’s fundraising activities in Texas in which several others have already been indicted. They US congress aren’t the ones doing the investigating, so I don’t think they can make it go away. Course the Texas legislature will probably do its best. At the least, he might have to step down as Majority Leader. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_One](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/45deac/32.png) [@Evil\_One](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_One)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/45 "2004-11-08T15:56:07Z")
Another great unknown is President Bush. If he has a good two years, he could be an effective campaigner for Republican candidates in swing states come 2006. If things are going badly, voters may take out their frustrations on the Republicans candidates that are running. I’m also curious to see if the high turnout this year was a fluke or if it will continue. All variables aside, I think it will be quite a while before Democrats regain a majority in either chamber. ---
**Author:** ![duffer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duffer/32/1026_2.png) [@duffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/duffer)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2004, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/46 "2004-11-08T22:26:23Z")
> [@acsenray](#): > > I don’t get it. How is a link to his home page a cite for that? Because he’s a Senator, not a Representative. I was just trying to clear that up. ---
**Author:** ![Winkie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/41988e/32.png) [@Winkie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Winkie)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2004, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/47 "2004-11-09T01:29:38Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > To add to the Govnah’s post, I think the 5th District in Indiana will be contested. It’s currently held by Julia Carson (D), but her health is incredibly poor. Hopefully, she’ll step down in 2006 and let someone else run, but she’s pretty stubborn. Since Indianapolis is one of the few blue regions in this state, I hope another democrat will be able to win the seat if Julia steps down (and there’ll be a lot of them with political aspirations out of work in a couple of months ☹ ) How much of her popularity is personality-based? ---
**Author:** ![Governor\_Quinn](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/d26b3c/32.png) [@Governor\_Quinn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Governor_Quinn)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2004, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/48 "2004-11-09T01:44:09Z")
> [@Winkie](#): > > Since Indianapolis is one of the few blue regions in this state, I hope another democrat will be able to win the seat if Julia steps down (and there’ll be a lot of them with political aspirations out of work in a couple of months ☹ ) How much of her popularity is personality-based? Not too much. She certainly polls poorer than Andy Jacobs ever did. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2004, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/49 "2004-11-09T14:15:08Z")
There’s also a lot of conservative hate directed towards her in the area. It preceeds me by a couple years, since I moved here just about 4 years ago, so I’m not too familiar with the specifics. A new Democratic candidate could pump some life into the district. Any chance we could get Tim Roemer to move? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![JerH](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/bb73d2/32.png) [@JerH](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JerH)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2004, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/50 "2004-11-09T22:20:03Z")
> [@TeaElle](#): > > And whoever beats Santorum in 2006 will face Phil English or Melissa Hart in 2012, whether they’re still on the Hill or not. They’re both being groomed for a Senate run, and have been from before they went to Washington and neither will stop until they get there, or go down swinging in an attempt. In fact, if Spector decides to retire in '10, which he very well may, there will be internal strife in the PA GOP as the English and Hart contingents duke it out over who will run for the seat. Has there been a rift between Hart and English? I know they used to work pretty closely together (he worked for her in the state Senate, and and did a good bit of fundraising to get her elected to Congress). I’d gotten the impression that English was more focused on amassing power in the House than on higher offices. ---
**Author:** ![Guinastasia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guinastasia/32/5751_2.png) [@Guinastasia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guinastasia)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2004, 6:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/51 "2004-11-10T06:15:35Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > If there is a God, Santorum is toast in '06. I’ll be doing my part to make him a nice shade of burnt. I’ll join you in fighting the good fight-my god, I can’t WAIT to get that asshat out of there. The remarks he made after the flood back in September riled up a LOT of Pittsburghers here against him-and he’s a native son. **Gyrate** -Pittsburgh and Allegheny county are leftist/Democratic. How we ended up with Senator Fecalsludge is beyond me. As for Hart, I hope to god she doesn’t get elected a senator. I can’t stand that woman. Isn’t John Kerry up for reelection in 2006? ---
**Author:** ![Malodorous](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e47774/32.png) [@Malodorous](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malodorous)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2004, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/52 "2004-11-10T14:05:47Z")
> [@Guinastasia](#): > > Isn’t John Kerry up for reelection in 2006? 1. He won Mass. for president by 62/37, I doubt he’s too worried about loosing his senate seate in 2008. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2004, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/53 "2004-11-10T14:50:56Z")
> [@Malodorous](#): > > He won Mass. for president by 62/37, I doubt he’s too worried about loosing his senate seate in 2008. Maybe they just wanted him out of Massachusetts. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2004, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193/54 "2004-11-10T15:02:11Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > Maybe they just wanted him out of Massachusetts. 😃 I’m more than half-convinced that it’s the reason they keep sending Ted Kennedy to DC… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whos-vulnerable-in-2006/273193.md?page=2)