Gotcha. I’d argue, though, that the effect of the Wellstone memorial in other states was minimal. It’s always amazing to me that Senate and House races often end up turning not on national or ideological issues, but on particular local concerns or perceptions.
BTW, who’s Governor Quinn?
If there is a God, Santorum is toast in '06. I’ll be doing my part to make him a nice shade of burnt.
Oh, I don’t know about that. The fact that his own ads gave him no claim to fame except that he wasn’t Arlen Spector and the fact that his legislative history shows only one piece of sponsored legislation in 14 years (a bill to rename a post office) were much bigger problems than Spector himself, who ran a damned lackluster campaign according to all analyses.
Rick Santorum has a lot more going against him than Spector ever could (dull campaigning and the historical magic bullet theory notwithstanding) and whoever runs against him is undoubtedly going to make great political hay on Santorum’s repeated stupid comments about taxation (he’s intimated that the poor deserve to pay more taxes because they’re more reliant upon government programs) and of course, his rampant anti-gay bigotry. The Dems don’t have to run a strong candidate against Santorum at all, they just need one with enough cash to plaster the airwaves in the maroon parts of the state (the 55% Repub / 45% Dem counties) with idiotic quotes directly from Santorum’s mouth.
And whoever beats Santorum in 2006 will face Phil English or Melissa Hart in 2012, whether they’re still on the Hill or not. They’re both being groomed for a Senate run, and have been from before they went to Washington and neither will stop until they get there, or go down swinging in an attempt. In fact, if Spector decides to retire in '10, which he very well may, there will be internal strife in the PA GOP as the English and Hart contingents duke it out over who will run for the seat. (But they won’t square off against one another in the primaries, because unity is the PA GOP watchword – see that lovely piece of Harrisburg engineered PR with Bush, Spector and Santorum all on one dias earlier this year.)
In Texas, Mrs. Hutchison is almost a lock to retire, she has family issues. (Ailing elderly family members and, if I’m not confusing her with someone else – Mrs. Snowe? – she also just adopted a child, despite being, shall we say, a lady of a certain age.) Mr. Akaka from Hawaii has an infirm wife, though the infirmities of her husband haven’t taken Mrs. O’Connor off of the SCOTUS bench, so who knows?
He’s the guy that made the 17th post in this thread.
Doh!
Sorry, Guvnah!
DeWine was elected in 1994 and re-elected in 2000. He’s not going anywhere unless he chooses to.
A coma didn’t stop Strom Thurmond… 
2006 is not shaping up to be a boon for either party, especially in the Senate. Byrd and Kennedy will not retire; if they had it their way, they’d die right there on the Senate floor.
But keep your eyes on Jon Corzine and Kay Bailey Hutchison. They both want to be governor of their respective states. The problem is that both these states have distinct leans to them, New Jersey being Democratic and Texas being Republican. So an actual party changeover, while possible, isn’t what I’d put my money on right now.
DeWine is probably safe. The state’s other freshman senator, George Voinovich, won a second term in a landslide last week. While DeWine isn’t a former governor, I still get the impression he’s pretty popular.
So I see very few Senators who, initially, appear vulnerable. Remember, no incumbent senators were defeated this cycle. I suspect any changeover in the Senate will come about because of retirements, and predicting those is pointless.
As for the House… hell if I know. Given how gerrymandered our districts are these days, I wouldn’t expect much change unless you see something like 1994 happen again. If the Democrats want House control in the forseeable future, they should focus on gaining control of state legislatures, where the district maps will be redrawn in 2011.
I’m confused. Daschle?
Hadn’t the Supreme Court asked the lower court to reconsider their ruling on the Texas redistricting. If this gets undone, then it could certainly help the Dems in the house.
Also, Tom Delay only kept his seat by a few points with 55% of the vote this year. If the next two years legislative sessions don’t reflect well on him and he faces a strong challenger in 2006, he might be joining Daschle in the unemployed line.
:smack:
Excuse me, I need to go quit my job now.
Hey, that plan was good. We just need to be louder and more shrill about it. That’s the ticket. 
Hee. I was just sitting here, gaping at my monitor. For an instant, I started to think that perhaps I was dreaming about the whole election and it was really just Hallowe’en again. sigh
We’re not that lucky.
Don’t worry. I’m easy to ignore.
Oh, Malodorus- even if Texas redistricting is overturned, a couple of those incumbent that lost their seats had barely won in 2002, so it may not be as sure a thing as you suggest. Besides, there is the issue of Al Green to handle.
Delay is also having some ethical issues in Congress right now. Congress is now sufficiently Republican to make these issues go away, but a good-enough opponent can probably make some hay out of it.
Robin
Mr. Speaker, how much longer shall we permit Senator Byrd to have the floor?
“For as long as he’s sprawled out on it, I suppose. Where is that ambulance, anyway?”
Oh, I don’t know…I’d say he’s pretty safe. Anyone else we Pubs can count on winning?
To add to the Govnah’s post, I think the 5th District in Indiana will be contested. It’s currently held by Julia Carson (D), but her health is incredibly poor. Hopefully, she’ll step down in 2006 and let someone else run, but she’s pretty stubborn.