# Whose heads will roll after the Democrats lose big in November? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 7, 2010, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356 "2010-10-07T14:06:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![joebuck20](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/74df32/32.png) [@joebuck20](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/joebuck20)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/1 "2010-10-07T14:06:13Z")
Even an organization as spineless as the Democrats aren’t going to let something like this pass without delivering a little carnage. Personally I don’t think things are looking good for Tim Kaine. I don’t if anyone here saw the Daily Show interview he did a few weeks back, but his basic selling point seemed to be “We suck less than the Republicans.” And overall the party under his leadership has done pretty shitty job of defending itself against the Tea Party infused Republicans. So who else in the DNC will likely “be spending more time with their family” after the election. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/2 "2010-10-07T14:10:58Z")
Surely this depends on if they lose, and if the loss is “big”, and _how_ big. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/3 "2010-10-07T14:14:24Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > Surely this depends on if they lose, and if the loss is “big”, and _how_ big. So, on the wild, crazy, and completely-unsupported-by-polling assumption that the Democrats lose in November… is there an answer to the OP’s question? Perhaps several answers, premised on general scenarios like: A) Lose the House by a small ( \<10 ) number of seats, keep Senate B) Lose House by 35+ seats, keep Senate C) Lost House by 35+ seats, lose Senate ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/4 "2010-10-07T14:18:21Z")
If heads roll, it will just be on general principles, not in response to any widespread demand. I’m a pretty solid Dem, but I had to go to Wikipedia to find out who [Tim Kaine](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Kaine) is. The parties’ institutional leaders, as distinct from elected public officials, just don’t matter much to the rank-and-file. Nor do they have very much power over what the party as a party does. As discussed in [this thread,](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=580933) maybe that should change. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/5 "2010-10-07T15:46:40Z")
Likely Tim Kaine will be out of a job. But that was probably going to happen anyways. Obviously if Reid loses the Senate leadership will be shaken up (and it might be anyways). A lot of the party-administration positions (DNC, DSCC, etc…) change after most elections anyways, if I recall correctly. ---
**Author:** ![SteveG1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bb73d2/32.png) [@SteveG1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SteveG1)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/6 "2010-10-07T15:48:57Z")
I’m not so sure there will be a landslide “house cleaning”. I’m not sure there won’t be either. Regardless of what any polls, analysts, or wishful thinkers say, there is only one count that matters. Right up until then, it’s all up for grabs. “Dewey Wins” and all that. Now as to “spineless Dems”… I would think that sort of “hey guys let’s fight” wouldn’t be a smart way to start a general debate? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/7 "2010-10-07T16:09:53Z")
I agree with Bryan Ekers’ post. And it’s strange that Bricker did not include any scenarios under which the Democrats keep the House, although that’s about as likely as the Republicans taking the Senate, at current odds. It’s hard to believe that anyone thinks the current dynamic is somehow the fault of political operatives like Tim Kaine, but people like to point fingers. There’s an interesting dichotomy to these elections, in that when a party loses at the polls, it’s the most moderate members lose the most. This is not because the public is turning against moderates, but because these members tend to represent districts or states that are moderate or lean against the ideology of these moderates, and their seats are always the “swing seats”. As a result, the composition of the remaining members tends to get more polarized. OTOH, there’s a widely shared perception that in order to appeal to a broader audience, the parties need to be more moderate, and appealing to a broader audience is just what the parties are looking to do in the aftermath of an electoral drubbing. On the third hand, if there’s one available, this widely shared perception is frequently not shared by ideologues themselves, who frequently believe that the public would find more appealing a more liberal/conservative stance, and is only being turned off by the watered down version being put out by the moderates. All in all it’s an interesting dynamic. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Tildrum](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e95f7d/32.png) [@Tom\_Tildrum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Tildrum)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/8 "2010-10-07T16:53:32Z")
Michael Steele will conclude that he is a genius. ---
**Author:** ![PhiloVance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e19adc/32.png) [@PhiloVance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhiloVance)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/9 "2010-10-07T16:57:29Z")
Who really cares. Didn’t anyone see _The Distinguished Gentleman?_ ---
**Author:** ![amanset](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@amanset](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amanset)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/10 "2010-10-07T17:20:10Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > > [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > > > Surely this depends on if they lose, and if the loss is “big”, and _how_ big. > > So, on the wild, crazy, and completely-unsupported-by-polling assumption TBH I haven’t trusted political polls since they all said that Labour were going to win in the UK in 1992. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/11 "2010-10-07T17:20:38Z")
The worry many liberals like myself have is that somehow the dems will assume their problem is they didn’t act conservative enough. When the real problem is more that they didn’t act liberal enough to encourage the base and they didn’t focus on jobs enough to encourage independents. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/12 "2010-10-07T17:30:30Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > I agree with Bryan Ekers’ post. And it’s strange that Bricker did not include any scenarios under which the Democrats keep the House, although that’s about as likely as the Republicans taking the Senate, at current odds. > > It’s hard to believe that anyone thinks the current dynamic is somehow the fault of political operatives like Tim Kaine, but people like to point fingers. > > There’s an interesting dichotomy to these elections, in that when a party loses at the polls, it’s the most moderate members lose the most. This is not because the public is turning against moderates, but because these members tend to represent districts or states that are moderate or lean against the ideology of these moderates, and their seats are always the “swing seats”. As a result, the composition of the remaining members tends to get more polarized. OTOH, there’s a widely shared perception that in order to appeal to a broader audience, the parties need to be more moderate, and appealing to a broader audience is just what the parties are looking to do in the aftermath of an electoral drubbing. On the third hand, if there’s one available, this widely shared perception is frequently not shared by ideologues themselves, who frequently believe that the public would find more appealing a more liberal/conservative stance, and is only being turned off by the watered down version being put out by the moderates. All in all it’s an interesting dynamic. That is true in the house, but I don’t know about the senate because moderates in the senate have won with 60%+ of the vote in places like Maine and Indiana before. I believe the vast majority of dem seats that are going to be lost in the house in 2010 will be conservadem and blue dog dems, because those are the districts where the GOP and conservative voters have the most influence. I don’t think many members of the progressive caucus will lose their house seats in 2010. Not only that, but ‘moderate’ is usually what it is called when the opposing party takes a seat. If you have an extremely conservative part of the country (the south as an example) you can either have deeply conservative republicans or moderate/conservative democrats but not many deeply liberal democrats. If you have an extremely liberal part of the country like new england you can have deeply liberal democrats or moderate/liberal republicans but few deeply conservative republicans. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/13 "2010-10-07T17:56:24Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > That is true in the house, but I don’t know about the senate because moderates in the senate have won with 60%+ of the vote in places like Maine and Indiana before. Not sure what your point is with this, but I agree that it’s more of a factor in the House than the Senate, because House districts are smaller and thus more polarized than entire states. There are more “safe” House seats than Senate seats, so you get more long-term ideologues in the House. But it applies in the Senate as well. > [@](#): > > Not only that, but ‘moderate’ is usually what it is called when the opposing party takes a seat. If you have an extremely conservative part of the country (the south as an example) you can either have deeply conservative republicans or moderate/conservative democrats but not many deeply liberal democrats. If you have an extremely liberal part of the country like new england you can have deeply liberal democrats or moderate/liberal republicans but few deeply conservative republicans. I’m not sure if you agree or disagree with me here. But would you agree that - for example - it the Republican party brand takes a big hit nationwide, Scott Brown in MA is going to be more impacted than John Cornyn in TX? ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 7:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/14 "2010-10-07T19:25:43Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > > [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > > > Surely this depends on if they lose, and if the loss is “big”, and _how_ big. > > A) Lose the House by a small ( \<10 ) number of seats, keep Senate If this is the outcome, heads will roll in the GOP. There will be a blood bath between the Old Guard and the Tea Party. Let’s you and him fight. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/15 "2010-10-07T19:40:08Z")
I imagine there will be a lot of spinning in that scenario, but I don’t see it as a “heads roll” situation for Republicans. That’s about what is currently being prognosticated by sober analysts. The Repubs currently have 178 seats, and if they pick up 44 seats they only end up with 222, or a majority of 9. I can’t see anyone’s head rolling because they failed to pick up more than 44 seats. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/16 "2010-10-07T19:49:21Z")
There are such high expectations for a win of landslide proportions, if anything less than a complete rout occurs, the Tea party will go ballistic and circular firing squad will commence. The mainstream GOP has thrown in with the Teapers, and will inevitably get hit by the blowback. These are not reasonable people, and if they cannot wield absolute power in Congress with a veto-proof majority, they will not get the total overhaul of government they have been promised. Maybe not immediately after the election, but within a year, when it becomes apparent they have been sold a bill of goods, they will be demanding heads on pikes. Hell, that may happen anyway, given their temperment. I forsee complete disarray on the right in the runup to the 2012 election. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/17 "2010-10-07T20:10:42Z")
If they did lose big in the Senate, Chuck Schumer might replace Harry Reid. Of course if they lost _really_ big, that would include Reid losing to Angle - which I don’t think is going to happen. ---
**Author:** ![zamboniracer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9a140/32.png) [@zamboniracer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zamboniracer)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/18 "2010-10-07T20:26:12Z")
> [@PhiloVance](#): > > Who really cares. Didn’t anyone see _The Distinguished Gentleman?_ I thought that was an excellent and very underrated movie. For those who didn’t see it, Eddie Murphy finagles his way to a seat in Congress when the incumbent - whose name Eddie’s character shares - dies shortly before the election and Eddie gets elected on the namegame basis. Congress is portrayed as having all its members of both parties being constantly on the take for campaign contributions. That, plus it had Victoria Rowell in it, who’s always floated my boat. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [October 7, 2010, 8:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/19 "2010-10-07T20:39:08Z")
My WAG: Pelosi is done. Even if he wins reelection, there’s a better than even chance that Reid is out too. Tim Kaine? Irrelevant. ---
**Author:** ![E-Sabbath](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e19adc/32.png) [@E-Sabbath](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-Sabbath)\ **Post date:** [October 8, 2010, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356/20 "2010-10-08T00:23:13Z")
Personally, I have the opinion that the Republicans peaked about a week or two ago. Too early. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/whose-heads-will-roll-after-the-democrats-lose-big-in-november/556356.md?page=2)