# Why are my experiences contradicting the statistics? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [November 3, 2015, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525 "2015-11-03T15:08:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![brahmsacademic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/838e76/32.png) [@brahmsacademic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brahmsacademic)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/41 "2015-11-21T01:35:48Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Two of my children needed five years to finish. Personally, I got through in four years, but only by going year-round. > > By the way, have you looked at those college athlete profiles to see if they actually graduated? After 4 years, they’re not on the roster anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/42 "2015-11-21T02:32:53Z")
What are the degrees of people you associate with? I was in engineering and a distinct minority graduated in 4 years. I suspect that other STEM degrees are similar, but that polisci majors (say) aren’t generally faced with the same difficulties. ---
**Author:** ![wevets](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9a140/32.png) [@wevets](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wevets)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/43 "2015-11-21T02:43:00Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > I mentioned how that no matter where I looked, the majority of people had a Bachelor’s Degree. Why don’t you start by providing us with a methodology describing where you looked? Saying “randomly on facebook” doesn’t describe it. How do you know it was random? You need a methodology to determine randomness, otherwise you introduce bias by mistaking [haphazard sampling](http://datainfoplus.stats.govt.nz/item/nz.govt.stats/991fbf8f-e229-45e9-bcc2-a7be8a49d776/0/) for random sampling, when they are not at all the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 3:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/44 "2015-11-21T03:44:07Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > After 4 years, they’re not on the roster anymore. You do know that many athletes return later to get their degrees, don’t you? You probably don’t. Which means you’re making statements about a population without knowing the first thing about it. Maybe that should be a clue. Or a elementary course in statistics. That would work wonders. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/45 "2015-11-21T03:59:47Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > After 4 years, they’re not on the roster anymore. Under NCAA rules a Division I student has [five calendar years to complete four years of athletic eligibility.](http://www.ncaa.org/student-athletes/current/transfer-terms) So, after four seasons on the roster, they’re ineligible to compete regardless of whether they graduated, dropped out or went part-time, whether they started as a freshman or were redshirted until their sophomore year. ---
**Author:** ![WF\_Tomba](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/d9b06d/32.png) [@WF\_Tomba](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WF_Tomba)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 6:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/46 "2015-11-21T06:48:41Z")
I am reminded of the old tale about the New York intellectual who was shocked when Nixon was re-elected: “How could he have won? No one I know voted for him!” ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 6:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/47 "2015-11-21T06:58:45Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > In an earlier, I provided a link to this statistic, [Percentage of persons 25 to 29 years old with selected levels of educational attainment, by race/ethnicity and sex: Selected years, 1920 through 2013](http://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_104.20.asp), saying that only 40% of people have a Bachelor’s Degree. Merged with previous thread. Colibri General Questions Moderator ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/48 "2015-11-21T11:16:11Z")
You’re telling the truth man. Ain’t no 40% of dudes with degrees in my cell block. Not even 4%. ---
**Author:** ![zut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zut/32/2875_2.png) [@zut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zut)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2015, 1:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/49 "2015-11-21T13:31:12Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > These statistics all say that even of the people who do go to college, most of them don’t graduate in 4 years. But everyone I know has graduated, or is on track, to graduate at 21 or 22. But again, it’s not just people I know. I’ll look up facebook and it’s the same story. According to the NCES in the _[Profile of 2007-08 First-Time Bachelor’s Degree Recipients in 2009](http://nces.ed.gov/pubs2013/2013150.pdf)_ (Table 1.1) , 2/3 of people who graduate from college do so at age 23 or younger. Now that’s 2/3 of college _graduates_ not 2/3 of people who _go to college_, but you’ve already said that you know very few people who are not college graduates. Also, 23 is not 22 or 21, but I’m a little surprised that you know the exact ages of all your friends. In addition, from the same source (Table 2.8) , 44% of college _graduates_ (again not the same as people who _go to college_) get their degree in 48 months or less, with the median at 52 months. 66% graduate within five years, which basically matches the “23 and under” category. _Average_ graduation times are higher because of a small but significant group that takes over 10 years to graduate. Interestingly, Table 2.8 gives a few additional insights into which students take shortest and longest to graduate. For example, the median graduation time for an unmarried student with no children - what I at least would think of as a “typical college kid” - is only 45 months. Likewise, students going to 4-year schools off the bat (v. attending community college first) tend to graduate earlier, as do those going to private schools, those who have not received Pell grants, and those whose parents have college degrees. I think it would be interesting if the OP also surveyed his friends to see which subcategories they fall into. ---
**Author:** ![brahmsacademic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/838e76/32.png) [@brahmsacademic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brahmsacademic)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/50 "2015-11-24T19:52:06Z")
So a few weeks ago, I asked why everyone I looked up on any social media site had earned earned a Bachelor’s Degree before they turned 23, despite these statistics. > **[Percentage of persons 25 to 29 years old with selected levels of educational...](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_104.20.asp)** > > The primary purpose of the Digest of Education Statistics is to provide a compilation of statistical information covering the broad field of American education from prekindergarten through graduate school. The Digest includes a selection of data from... > **[Graduation rates of first-time, full-time bachelor's degree-seeking students...](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_326.10.asp)** > > The primary purpose of the Digest of Education Statistics is to provide a compilation of statistical information covering the broad field of American education from prekindergarten through graduate school. The Digest includes a selection of data from... > **[PolitiFact - On average, a college degree takes six years, U.S. Sen. Ron...](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2013/aug/11/ron-johnson/average-college-degree-takes-six-years-us-sen-ron-/)** > > It used to be that college students joked about being on "the five-year plan" in their quest to earn a four-year degree. > **[Most College Students Don’t Earn a Degree in 4 Years, Study Finds (Published...](https://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/02/education/most-college-students-dont-earn-degree-in-4-years-study-finds.html?_r=0)** > > A new report says that only 19 percent of students graduated in four years from most public universities and that only 50 of 580 public universities graduated a majority of their full-time students at the four-year mark. > **[The Myth of the 4-Year College Degree](https://business.time.com/2013/01/10/the-myth-of-the-4-year-college-degree/)** > > Though college is typically billed as a 4-year experience, most students actually need much longer to earn a bachelor's degree. I was told that this was because social media is bias and those without degrees are less likely to have social media accounts. So I decided to go out in the real world. In these past 3 week, I’ve gone to 4 different nightclubs and 3 different synagogues, have met with people there, and I’m still getting the same results. I didn’t talk to one person who didn’t earn a Bachelor’s Degree before they turned 23. And there was nothing bias about where I was looking. These places were in different cities. I got as random as I could. What am I doing wrong? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/51 "2015-11-24T19:56:28Z")
Are you sure that there isn’t one common denominator in all the surveys you have been doing…? ---
**Author:** ![Macca26](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/13edae/32.png) [@Macca26](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Macca26)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/52 "2015-11-24T19:57:12Z")
You’d probably get a more accurate sample if you walked to the local grocery stores, corner stores, and delis as well. Everyone needs to buy food. Only small portions of the population go to nightclubs and synagogues. I’d also say that until your sample sizes reach into the thousands across all demographics, you’re still just scratching the surface. It also depends on how your questions are phrased. These articles include people who never graduated from college at all and dropped out. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/53 "2015-11-24T20:01:19Z")
What are you doing wrong: Failing to learn from experience and what we’ve been telling you. Your samples are still hopelessly biased. How may residents of small towns did you talk to? How many people of a different ethnicity than yourself? How many people of different age groups? How many prisoners, military members, and ultra-rich people? etc. ---
**Author:** ![leahcim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/b4bc9f/32.png) [@leahcim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/leahcim)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/54 "2015-11-24T20:06:21Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > I’ve gone to 4 different nightclubs and 3 different synagogues … These places were in different cities. Especially in cities, where it can be quite expensive, going to nightclubs is a habit of young professionals, who would all have bachelor’s degrees at least. Jewish culture also places a high value on education, so synagogues are likely to have a skewed sample as well. I suspect you need to get out of the cities to construct a representative sample. Urbanites tend to be more highly-educated than average. ---
**Author:** ![Asimovian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asimovian/32/172_2.png) [@Asimovian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Asimovian)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/55 "2015-11-24T20:32:34Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > So a few weeks ago, I asked why everyone I looked up on any social media site had earned earned a Bachelor’s Degree before they turned 23, despite these statistics. I’ve merged your new thread with the old one. It’s the same topic with some added information, and your “old” thread was active as of three days ago. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/56 "2015-11-24T21:29:13Z")
> [@leahcim](#): > > I suspect you need to get out of the cities to construct a representative sample. I don’t even think that is necessary. He should try walking into the kitchen of the nightclubs he frequents and ask how many line cooks and dishwashers got their bachelor’s degrees before the age of 23. ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/57 "2015-11-24T22:32:21Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > …3 different synagogues… It would be hard to find a more biased location to sample, since [58% of Jews have a college degree](http://www.pewforum.org/2013/10/01/jewish-american-beliefs-attitudes-culture-survey/). ---
**Author:** ![brahmsacademic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/838e76/32.png) [@brahmsacademic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brahmsacademic)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/58 "2015-11-24T22:43:16Z")
> [@SpoilerVirgin](#): > > It would be hard to find a more biased location to sample, since [58% of Jews have a college degree](http://www.pewforum.org/2013/10/01/jewish-american-beliefs-attitudes-culture-survey/). It didn’t that 58% of Jews got their degree before they turned 23 though. ---
**Author:** ![brahmsacademic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/838e76/32.png) [@brahmsacademic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brahmsacademic)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/59 "2015-11-24T22:51:51Z")
> [@Macca26](#): > > You’d probably get a more accurate sample if you walked to the local grocery stores, corner stores, and delis as well. Everyone needs to buy food. **Only small portions of the population go to nightclubs and synagogues.** I’d also say that until your sample sizes reach into the thousands across all demographics, you’re still just scratching the surface. > > It also depends on how your questions are phrased. These articles include people who never graduated from college at all and dropped out. But they’re still places that don’t require you to have a Bachelor’s Degree and have nothing to do with education. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [November 24, 2015, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/60 "2015-11-24T23:44:02Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > But they’re still places that don’t require you to have a Bachelor’s Degree and have nothing to do with education. The people who can afford to go to nightclubs are people who are reasonably successful in life, which tends to correlate nicely with education. As suggested upthread, talk to the people who WORK at the nightclub, particularly in the more routine/menial jobs such as kitchen or janitorial (bartenders and DJs may vary, depending on your location and type of nightclub). In a typical kitchen, you’re very likely to find a good chunk of the staff never even completed high school. If you ignore the kitchen staff, ignore the janitors at your workplace, ignore the people who don’t attend synagogue, ignore the bus drivers and trash haulers in your city, ignore the electricians and plumbers and other tradespeople who keep your utilities working, ignore the postal clerks and FedEx drivers who deliver your goods, and so forth, you’re not going to get a representative sample. For example, the [current annual report of the Kansas Dept of Corrections](http://www.doc.ks.gov/publications/Reports/2015) reveals (printed page # 14) that of 9567 prison inmates whose educational attainment is known, fewer than a thousand (actually, 844) have ANY education beyond high school, while 4282 (about 45%) have neither a high school diploma nor a GED. How many of those people, or people like them, have you included in your sample? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525.md?page=4)