# Why are my experiences contradicting the statistics? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [November 3, 2015, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525 "2015-11-03T15:08:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![brahmsacademic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/838e76/32.png) [@brahmsacademic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brahmsacademic)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 6:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/81 "2015-12-01T06:18:23Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > BTW, I am not trying to be mean but your responses and lack of understanding are frustrating. Your results are not possible anywhere in the U.S. so there is something very wrong with your survey and/or your sampling. > > Let me give a very basic example. If you told me that your survey showed that 50% of men were admittedly and exclusively gay based on your finding, I would tell you to try to survey some people outside of certain San Francisco nightclubs because the results are obviously wrong. The same thing would apply to trying to calculate the average American’s weight by selecting people at a Weight Watchers meeting or a Sunday morning all-you-can-eat buffet. It isn’t going to give you an accurate result. > > Sampling theory goes well beyond that but you have even mastered the most basic and rudimentary concepts yet. Okay. I surveyed people in my local promenade. The places I went inside were a coffee shop, a Mexican place, a seafood place, and a bar, none of which are very expensive or have anything to do with education. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/82 "2015-12-01T06:37:17Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > Okay. I surveyed people in my local promenade. The places I went inside were a coffee shop, a Mexican place, a seafood place, and a bar, none of which are very expensive or have anything to do with education. At this point, I have to say that you appear to be deliberately obtuse. Did you talk to the homeless guy in the alley? The dishwasher in the back? You are getting these answers because YOUR SAMPLING TECHNIQUE IS SERIOUSLY FLAWED. Full stop. ---
**Author:** ![Wendell\_Wagner](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/8491ac/32.png) [@Wendell\_Wagner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wendell_Wagner)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 9:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/83 "2015-12-01T09:10:43Z")
brahmsacademic, now drive at least 200 miles away from your home. Find a small town that doesn’t have a college in it. Survey the people there. ---
**Author:** ![Urbanredneck](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ea5d25/32.png) [@Urbanredneck](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Urbanredneck)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/84 "2015-12-01T12:04:43Z")
Also many people just have vocational training or an AA in a craft field so they dont need a BS. ---
**Author:** ![zut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zut/32/2875_2.png) [@zut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zut)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/85 "2015-12-01T12:55:35Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > Alright, I understand that most people who are financially well-off are likely to have Bachelor’s Degrees. That still doesn’t explain why most of the people I surveyed got them before they turned 23, especially since the statistics I provided say that even of the people who do go to college, most don’t graduate in 4 years. Did you read [my post earlier in this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18877837&postcount=49)? Do you have any comments? ---
**Author:** ![brahmsacademic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/838e76/32.png) [@brahmsacademic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brahmsacademic)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 4:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/86 "2015-12-01T16:03:19Z")
> [@zut](#): > > Did you read [my post earlier in this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=18877837&postcount=49)? Do you have any comments? Yes. It said age 23 or younger. Not younger than 23. There is a difference. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/87 "2015-12-01T17:14:00Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > At this point, I have to say that you appear to be deliberately obtuse. Did you talk to the homeless guy in the alley? The dishwasher in the back? > > You are getting these answers because YOUR SAMPLING TECHNIQUE IS SERIOUSLY FLAWED. Full stop. Speaking as a professional market researcher, who’s been doing actual, quantitative market research studies for over 25 years… This. 20 surveys is not _nearly_ enough for you to even start to consider it to be a representative sample, even in your city, much less the total United States. You’d need more like 200 or so before you could even begin to consider the results to have some validity. And, as several have pointed out, you’re essentially drawing a “convenience sample”…you’ve surveyed people at a couple of retail establishments in your area. You have no way to know if those people are representative of the broader population in your city, much less the US as a whole. ---
**Author:** ![zut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zut/32/2875_2.png) [@zut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zut)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/88 "2015-12-02T00:34:34Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > Yes. It said age 23 or younger. Not younger than 23. There is a difference. Uh huh. So what percentage of college graduates, would you guess, graduate at an age younger than 23? How do you think that would that compare to the percentage that graduate at 23 or younger? And how many of the people in your survey were married in college? How many started college after taking a few years off after high school? How many were first generation college attendees? How many went to community college? How many grew up poor? How many were Black or Hispanic? ---
**Author:** ![brahmsacademic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/838e76/32.png) [@brahmsacademic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brahmsacademic)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/89 "2015-12-02T00:53:36Z")
> [@zut](#): > > Uh huh. So what percentage of college graduates, would you guess, graduate at an age younger than 23? How do you think that would that compare to the percentage that graduate at 23 or younger? > > And how many of the people in your survey were married in college? How many started college after taking a few years off after high school? How many were first generation college attendees? How many went to community college? How many grew up poor? How many were Black or Hispanic? Most of them white. And yes, I understand that white people are statistically better off financially. However, according to 2 of these statistics, > **[Percentage of persons 25 to 29 years old with selected levels of educational...](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_104.20.asp)** > > The primary purpose of the Digest of Education Statistics is to provide a compilation of statistical information covering the broad field of American education from prekindergarten through graduate school. The Digest includes a selection of data from... > **[Graduation rates of first-time, full-time bachelor's degree-seeking students...](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_326.10.asp)** > > The primary purpose of the Digest of Education Statistics is to provide a compilation of statistical information covering the broad field of American education from prekindergarten through graduate school. The Digest includes a selection of data from... even most white people don’t get their Bachelor’s Degree before turning 23. But I have no way of knowing the answers to the other questions. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/90 "2015-12-02T01:22:42Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > Most of them white. And yes, I understand that white people are statistically better off financially. However, according to 2 of these statistics, > > [Percentage of persons 25 to 29 years old with selected levels of educational attainment, by race/ethnicity and sex: Selected years, 1920 through 2013](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_104.20.asp) > > [Graduation rates of first-time, full-time bachelor's degree-seeking students at 4-year postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity, time to completion, sex, and control of institution: Selected cohort entry years, 1996 through 2006](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_326.10.asp) > > even most white people don’t get their Bachelor’s Degree before turning 23. But I have no way of knowing the answers to the other questions. I don’t get the purpose of your general question(s) at all and I am positive I am not alone. You won’t give us any details about where or why you are doing this supposed study and that certainly doesn’t help. Are you claiming that the official statistics are wrong or are you truly interested in why your technique is FUBAR? If it is the former, I can assure you the published statistics are correct or at least very close to it and yours are completely implausible to put it charitably simply because you are doing it about as incorrectly as possible (which has become impressive in its own right). There are a number of people on this board, myself included, that know a whole lot about statistics and sampling theory. You may want to turn this around and start a new thread asking for advise on how to conduct a survey that gives you a realistic answer. ---
**Author:** ![brahmsacademic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/838e76/32.png) [@brahmsacademic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/brahmsacademic)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/91 "2015-12-02T02:53:23Z")
> [@Shagnasty](#): > > I don’t get the purpose of your general question(s) at all and I am positive I am not alone. You won’t give us any details about where or why you are doing this supposed study and that certainly doesn’t help. > > Are you claiming that the official statistics are wrong or are you truly interested in why your technique is FUBAR? If it is the former, I can assure you the published statistics are correct or at least very close to it and yours are completely implausible to put it charitably simply because you are doing it about as incorrectly as possible (which has become impressive in its own right). > > There are a number of people on this board, myself included, that know a whole lot about statistics and sampling theory. You may want to turn this around and start a new thread asking for advise on how to conduct a survey that gives you a realistic answer. Fine. How do I do it? I’m thinking of paying a friend who’s going out of state to survey people in that state to see if things are any different. But what’s your advice? I told you why I’m doing this study. I’ll be 23 when I graduate college, and I’m just trying to make sure that I’m not alone. ---
**Author:** ![Shagnasty](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9dc877/32.png) [@Shagnasty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shagnasty)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/92 "2015-12-02T05:43:44Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > I told you why I’m doing this study. I’ll be 23 when I graduate college, and I’m just trying to make sure that I’m not alone. That is a really odd answer but I can promise you that you are certainly not alone as proven by readily available facts. The key concept of surveys is your sample. The most important part of sampling is randomization and that is the part that you don’t seem to understand. You are picking your survey subjects based on your own whims and that results in predictably and horribly biased results. To get a real statistical sample, you have to take yourself out of the equation and let pure chance determine who you give your survey to. That is very difficult to do correctly with only one or two interviewers but any randomization will give you more accurate results than your current technique. You could stand at a busy walking intersection and ask every sixth person (just an example) to take your survey as long as you follow that protocol exactly. You could also use a random number generator to tell you what businesses in your local area you should visit to get data. None of those techniques will be truly accurate either but they are still much better than your current technique. Truly representative sampling takes a lot of math and work. It sounds like you just want a rough example which isn’t nearly as hard except you are doing it the worst way possible. ---
**Author:** ![zut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zut/32/2875_2.png) [@zut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zut)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/93 "2015-12-02T10:09:01Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > Most of them white. And yes, I understand that white people are statistically better off financially. However, according to 2 of these statistics, > > [Percentage of persons 25 to 29 years old with selected levels of educational attainment, by race/ethnicity and sex: Selected years, 1920 through 2013](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_104.20.asp) > > [Graduation rates of first-time, full-time bachelor's degree-seeking students at 4-year postsecondary institutions, by race/ethnicity, time to completion, sex, and control of institution: Selected cohort entry years, 1996 through 2006](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d13/tables/dt13_326.10.asp) > > even most white people don’t get their Bachelor’s Degree before turning 23. But I have no way of knowing the answers to the other questions. Most people don’t get their Bachelor’s Degree _at all_, so of course most people don’t get their Bachelor’s Degree before turning 23. However, your surveying method is obviously is biased toward choosing people who _did_ get their Bachelor’s Degree, and it seems likely that it’s also biased toward choosing people who got their Bachelor’s Degree before turning 23. Or people are lying to you, which is not exactly unlikely. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2015, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/94 "2015-12-02T12:23:45Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > Fine. How do I do it? I’m thinking of paying a friend who’s going out of state to survey people in that state to see if things are any different. But what’s your advice? > > I told you why I’m doing this study. I’ll be 23 when I graduate college, and I’m just trying to make sure that I’m not alone. I’m going to give you a piece of advice, unsolicited, and I hope you can accept it. With your last bit of college studies coming up, you need to learn to listen to other people. That doesn’t mean that you need to obediently do whatever others say, or give up your opinions. Everyone who has responded to you has pointed out the same problem with your thinking, for many days, and we’ve been banging our head on a wall trying to explain a simple point over and over and over. When you graduate and get a job, if you continue this pattern, you’re going to drive your employer fucking nuts. And that will make you frustrated, too. If you were good at listening to people,mthe question you ask in this post - how do I survey properly - would have been asked a week or more ago. Furthermore, there has been lots of helpful posts that discuss things like making sure non-affluent people are in your survey. And most of all, you don’t seem to realize that this work has already been done by professionals, and you’re proceeding with the assumption that heir work has to be validated by you, someone who doesn’t know what they are doing. Two of the hardest professional skills to master are how to collaborate and how to manage. Being able to listen is a huge part of building both skills. I strongly urge you to start sharpening this fundamental skill as soon as possible. ---
**Author:** ![Lamia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Lamia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamia)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2015, 12:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/95 "2015-12-03T00:01:37Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > Fine. How do I do it? I’m thinking of paying a friend who’s going out of state to survey people in that state to see if things are any different. But what’s your advice? > > I told you why I’m doing this study. I’ll be 23 when I graduate college, and I’m just trying to make sure that I’m not alone. You didn’t ask me, but my advice would be to take advantage of whatever mental health counseling services your college provides. I am not saying this to insult you, I am saying this because your posts here indicate that your thoughts and behavior are not healthy or normal. This doesn’t necessarily mean you have a serious psychological problem, it may just be stress or something, but whatever it is you are not dealing with it well. ---
**Author:** ![Yllaria](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yllaria/32/3452_2.png) [@Yllaria](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yllaria)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2015, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525/96 "2015-12-03T02:12:37Z")
> [@brahmsacademic](#): > > Fine. How do I do it? I’m thinking of paying a friend who’s going out of state to survey people in that state to see if things are any different. But what’s your advice? > > I told you why I’m doing this study. I’ll be 23 when I graduate college, and I’m just trying to make sure that I’m not alone. Tell him to go to a Greyhound bus station and to only survey people who get off the bus and start walking, rather than being picked up in a car, going to a parked car, or hiring a taxi. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-my-experiences-contradicting-the-statistics/736525.md?page=4)