[QUOTE=Exapno Mapcase]
All futurists are always wrong.
Of course, I am a very disillusioned futurist. I took futurism seriously when I was younger until I started learning that straight line extrapolations of the world - which is what futurists always wind up doing because anything else is too complicated - never work.
Just because average working hours went down in the past, no one should ever extrapolate that average working hours should continue to go down in the future. It’s necessary to look at why working hours went down, and in what industries, and under what circumstances, and in what countries, and in what time periods, etc. To look into the future you have to understand all the industries and circumstances and countries and time periods and their interrelationships and the changes that will take place and the inventions that haven’t been invented yet and the communications that don’t exist and the cultural changes that haven’t happened.
Nobody gets them right. Ever. They can’t. (Don’t tell me about people who seemed to get it right. They always fall into one of two categories. Either their predictions were so vague or so all-encompassing or so trivial that they can be retroactively made to predict anything, or they are part of a spectrum of predictions that gave every possible answer, one of which had to be right, but they are never right twice. The latter are often called economists.)
We don’t know today what future work days will look like. The reality will surprise us. That’s all that can be said.
Yeah, that’s not what you want to hear. And that’s not what people pay money to hear, which is why futurists, like astrologers, will always be with us.
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There is also no penalty for them if their prediction turns out to be wrong. Do they have to pay a fine, serve time in prison or even give their salary as a “futurist” back? No.
The other thing they like to do is make a prediction that is so far out into the future that they will be long dead by the time comes around for any one to check it. Its like, “Fifty years from now, New York will be under water because of global warming”.