# Why are the Trump defectors having such little impact on the polls and Trump's chances? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 7, 2020, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041 "2020-09-07T17:35:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/81 "2020-09-08T19:18:22Z")
> [@thickpancreas](#): > > But the fact that Trump of all people has been able to chip in to that support even a little is telling. Even under the worst imaginable circumstances, you will find some small number of people cooperating with the ‘enemy’. So it is not the least bit surprising that Trump has some visible support among those in minority communities. ---
**Author:** ![thickpancreas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ba9def/32.png) [@thickpancreas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thickpancreas)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/82 "2020-09-08T19:21:36Z")
So any minority who has a negative opinion of the democrats is in cahoots with the enemy? ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/83 "2020-09-08T19:22:20Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Would it budge _ **your** _ vote? > > Say Obama endorses Trump. Wouldn’t you just think, “Obama has lost his mind” and continue voting for Biden anyway? No, it wouldn’t have changed my vote. But I’m solidly in the middle of the Democratic base. Despite the turn this thread has taken, I started the thread not to discuss Trump’s base, but those on the periphery, and to discuss the size of the base relative to those on the periphery in the Democratic vs. Republican parties. My hypothesis is that based on Trump still having about a 30% chance of winning that the Republican Party is mostly base with a very small periphery while the Democratic Party has a smaller base and larger periphery, who would be much more prone to being peeled away in the event of nominating an unpopular candidate or having the opposing candidate be endorsed by one of their (our) own. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/84 "2020-09-08T19:28:22Z")
> [@thickpancreas](#): > > So any minority who has a negative opinion of the democrats is in cahoots with the enemy? You said the following: > [@thickpancreas](#): > > But the fact that Trump of all people has been able to chip in to that support even a little is telling. Supporting Trump “of all people” is demonstrably different than simply being against Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![thickpancreas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ba9def/32.png) [@thickpancreas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thickpancreas)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/85 "2020-09-08T19:30:44Z")
A person could support Trump AND be against democrats, though. Isn’t that true? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/86 "2020-09-08T19:34:15Z")
That seems like a truism. What’s the catch? ---
**Author:** ![thickpancreas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ba9def/32.png) [@thickpancreas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thickpancreas)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/87 "2020-09-08T19:41:03Z")
What if a minority, after taking stock of the given choices, decides that the democrat party is a bad option for them and the republican party is the lesser of two evils? In your mind would it be better for them to vote for Trump or not to vote at all? ---
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/88 "2020-09-08T19:45:44Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > To answer the OP, Trump voters are a hard-baked in crowd. They are almost un-budgable in their views and their loyalty. Almost no number of Republican defectors could sway them. Agreed. My mother used to be a huge Kasich fan, when she campaigned for him as Governor of Ohio. Now she calls him a communist or worse. > [@](#): > > I do wonder, tangentially, why the D’s can’t ever muster that loyalty. Not even Obama had such a hard-baked-in crowd for him. Democrats don’t have the same tribal identity politics as Republicans. > [@Velocity](#): > > Also, in general, the moment someone defects, he immediately loses all influence in his former camp. > > Red Sox fan: _“That’s it, I’m done with this loser team, I’m going to root for the Yankees from now on!”_ > > All his fellow Sox fans: _“Don’t let the door hit you on the way out.”_ ( _ **NOT** _ , “oh, you’re rooting for NYY? Then I better go root for them too”) Yes, this is an excellent example of tribalism over substance. > [@thickpancreas](#): > > They were voting for him two main reasons, the first being a repudiation of the false moral superiority and arrogance democrats are frequently guilty of the second being out of spite. So, their primary motivation in choosing who to elect is in trying to hurt others. > [@Jas09](#): > > It’s pointless to try because even appeals to reason are seen as insults. QFT. > [@QuickSilver](#): > > Is it because they don’t believe in those ideals themselves and can’t imagine that anyone else would? Is that the reason for the “spite”? Nail. Head. Wham. > [@Gyrate](#): > > Ah, the “I would have voted for the Democrats but then they called me a mean name” defense. Yes, that makes sense. > > The whole “Look what you made me do” argument is the brand of serial abusers and comic book villains. And Republicans. > [@thickpancreas](#): > > The reality is their understanding of the problems facing the black community is so simplistic that it amounts to “Trump racist! Bad! Democrat fight for colored people!” Seems this is an extremely simplistic understanding of the understanding that Democrats have for minority communities. > [@thickpancreas](#): > > That’s a fair position to take, and I understand those who do. As I mentioned before, I simply choose not to vote at all. Do you vote for any of your local officials? > [@carnivorousplant](#): > > Being called “depolrable” by Hillary Clinton didn’t help. She defined exactly who she was calling deplorable, and so unless you were a racist or a bigot, then she was not. the people that she did call deplorable weren’t about to vote for her one way or another. The ones that chose to be disingenuous and claim that she called them deplorable probably weren’t either. If I say that pedophiles who vote for Biden are horrible monsters, would you take that as me calling you a monster because you vote for Biden? (And by “you” I don’t mean _you_.) > [@Velocity](#): > > Many Trump voters have a view of the “deep state” that basically anyone who opposes Trump, is by default a member of the deep state. So, the are conspiracy theorists. > [@Velocity](#): > > Would it budge _ **your** _ vote? > > Say Obama endorses Trump. Wouldn’t you just think, “Obama has lost his mind” and continue voting for Biden anyway? In a world where that happened, probably. You can ask that, as you know it would not and could not happen. Just like the hypothetical of “What if Trump nominate Michelle Obama to SCOTUS, would you object?” It’s something that you can safely try to whataboutism and make claims of hypocrisy as you know it would never happen. But, say we had somehow nominated Louis Farrakhan, and you had Kasich. I would expect Obama et al to come out in support of Kasich, and I would certainly listen to them. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/89 "2020-09-08T19:49:43Z")
I would have to know more about the criteria on which they are basing their decision before rendering a judgement that was not highly contemptuous of their decision to vote for Trump. I would prefer they didn’t vote at all. ---
**Author:** ![thickpancreas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ba9def/32.png) [@thickpancreas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thickpancreas)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/90 "2020-09-08T19:55:29Z")
“So, their primary motivation in choosing who to elect is in trying to hurt others.” Not what I said at all. > [@k9bfriender](#): > > Seems this is an extremely simplistic understanding of the understanding that Democrats have for minority communities. Except I’m not wrong. And no I don’t vote at all because no party has presented a candidate worth voting for. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/91 "2020-09-08T19:59:24Z")
> [@thickpancreas](#): > > And no I don’t vote at all because no party has presented a candidate worth voting for. Asking again out of curiousity: > [@QuickSilver](#): > > Like who, for example? Who would you have preferred to see as Democratic party nominees for P and VP? What are the main objections to Biden and Harris in the black community? ---
**Author:** ![thickpancreas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ba9def/32.png) [@thickpancreas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thickpancreas)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/92 "2020-09-08T20:05:37Z")
None of the nominees were particularly good choices. My objections to Biden and Harris, and the democrat party at large? Put as simply as possible, they have resorted to pandering and identity politics in an attempt to beat Trump. If Trump drove a wedge in to American society, the democrats took a sledge hammer to it. Both parties are to blame for the state our society is in and neither can claim any type of moral superiority. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/93 "2020-09-08T20:10:16Z")
Even assuming you are correct in this assessment, Trump has only been around for four years. Do you have objections to what Democrats did prior to their attempts at beating Trump? ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/94 "2020-09-08T20:14:22Z")
> [@thickpancreas](#): > > Both parties are to blame for the state our society is in and neither can claim any type of moral superiority. I would have less trouble taking this at face value if you hadn’t put so much emphasis in your earlier statements to defend Trump supporters and put the blame for their preference of bigotry and ignorance on democrats. ---
**Author:** ![thickpancreas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ba9def/32.png) [@thickpancreas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thickpancreas)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/95 "2020-09-08T20:16:43Z")
Yes, I do. Keeping relatively recent, I was disappointed by Obama’s (I did vote for him) failure to use his presidency to move beyond talking points and address the problems facing the black community in the way that is sorely needed in our country. In the way that perhaps only he could have. He is in a very small group of people alive today who could actually lead a dialog on this and he chooses not to apparently because it’s not worth the political capital, or he doesn’t want to risk the hit to his own image. ---
**Author:** ![thickpancreas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ba9def/32.png) [@thickpancreas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thickpancreas)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/96 "2020-09-08T20:17:26Z")
Or you could choose to take it at face value because it is a true statement. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/97 "2020-09-08T20:23:10Z")
> [@thickpancreas](#): > > Yes, I do. > > Keeping relatively recent, I was disappointed by Obama’s (I did vote for him) failure to use his presidency to move beyond talking points and address the problems facing the black community in the way that is sorely needed in our country. In the way that perhaps only he could have. He is in a very small group of people alive today who could actually lead a dialog on this and he chooses not to apparently because it’s not worth the political capital, or he doesn’t want to risk the hit to his own image, personally. I’m not sure what he could have done. He spent his first two years getting Obamacare passed. That did help improve access to healthcare by those who lacked it previously, some of whom are members of the Black community. After the Republicans took control of Congress in 2010 he was unable to do anything else because the Republicans refused to cooperate on anything, whether it had to with helping Blacks or any other topic you can think of. They came in with the attitude of “if Obama is for it, we’re against it” and that was the end of Obama having any chance of getting anything done. ---
**Author:** ![thickpancreas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ba9def/32.png) [@thickpancreas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thickpancreas)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/98 "2020-09-08T20:24:49Z")
That’s not what I was getting at. I’d be happy to elaborate (and will on your queue), but it’d likely take the thread in a whole new direction and it’s already gone off course. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/99 "2020-09-08T20:31:08Z")
> [@thickpancreas](#): > > Or you could choose to take it at face value because it is a true statement. Fine. I take it at face value. Here’s why it remains a feckless position: Trump is unquestionably an existential threat. I trust I don’t need to enumerate the reasons. Biden, though arguably a career politician and lacking in progressive credentials, is demonstrably not a threat. In terms of the least harm done principle, it does not seem rational to sit this out on the sidelines, making claims of both side-isms and invoking wedges and sledge hammers. ---
**Author:** ![QuickSilver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quicksilver/32/7832_2.png) [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2020, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041/100 "2020-09-08T20:32:56Z")
> [@thickpancreas](#): > > That’s not what I was getting at. I’d be happy to elaborate (and will on your queue), but it’d likely take the thread in a whole new direction and it’s already gone off course. I would really like to hear your take on what you think Obama could/should have done for the black community in America during his time in office. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-the-trump-defectors-having-such-little-impact-on-the-polls-and-trumps-chances/920041.md?page=6)