# Why are Trump and the Republicans polling better now? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 5, 2018, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255 "2018-02-05T20:27:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/1 "2018-02-05T20:27:59Z")
[Trump has seen a significant improvement in his polling since mid-December](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html), and [the generic ballot question has shown considerable improvement for Republicans](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html) over the same time period. Why? I certainly don’t want to oversell it: an approval rating of 42% and a D+6.6% generic Congressional vote is still terrible, but definitely less terrible than it was about eight weeks ago. What is driving this? The tax cut? The Dems aborted shutdown? The good economic news? SOTU? Something else? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/2 "2018-02-05T20:34:27Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I certainly don’t want to oversell it: an approval rating of 42% and a D+6.6% generic Congressional vote is still terrible, but definitely less terrible than it was about eight weeks ago. What is driving this? The tax cut? The Dems aborted shutdown? The good economic news? SOTU? Something else? My guess is perceptions of a good economy and stock market (though one could certainly argue that it’s been a continuing trend from the last few years of Obama’s term, and it’s not like things suddenly got amazingly better in the past 12 months). The shutdown issue might have moved things a bit to the Democrats’ disadvantage, too, but I suspect that that’d wind up being a very short-term effect. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/3 "2018-02-05T20:37:08Z")
Big sky out there. It took a while to disperse enough chemtrails. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/4 "2018-02-05T20:49:48Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > My guess is perceptions of a good economy and stock market (though one could certainly argue that it’s been a continuing trend from the last few years of Obama’s term, and it’s not like things suddenly got amazingly better in the past 12 months). The shutdown issue might have moved things a bit to the Democrats’ disadvantage, too, but I suspect that that’d wind up being a very short-term effect. [Dow dropped 1,500 points.](http://www.ktvu.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-slumps-1000-points-or-4-percent-erasing-its-gain-for-the-year) > [@](#): > > The Dow Jones industrial average plunged as much as 1,500 points, erasing its gain for the year, as the market extends a slump that began Friday. > > The Dow’s point loss would be its biggest of all time, though in percentage terms, its 5.6 percent decline wasn’t as big as its worst drop during the financial crisis. > > The Dow skidded as much as 1,500 points, before recovering some of its losses. It was down 872, or 3.4 percent, to 24,651 ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/5 "2018-02-05T20:52:00Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > [Dow dropped 1,500 points.](http://www.ktvu.com/news/dow-jones-industrial-average-slumps-1000-points-or-4-percent-erasing-its-gain-for-the-year) Yup, and “the stock market is just _amazing_” has been one of Trump’s talking points in speeches for the past few months. I’d read a lot of opinion that the market was overdue for a correction, and that may just be what this is. Time will tell. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/6 "2018-02-05T20:58:49Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [Trump has seen a significant improvement in his polling since mid-December](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html), and [the generic ballot question has shown considerable improvement for Republicans](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html) over the same time period. Why? > > I certainly don’t want to oversell it: an approval rating of 42% and a D+6.6% generic Congressional vote is still terrible, but definitely less terrible than it was about eight weeks ago. What is driving this? The tax cut? The Dems aborted shutdown? The good economic news? SOTU? Something else? Probably all of the above, plus the Dems are now playing defense after the release of the memo. “Trump is colluding with the Russians” has turned into “but the folder came from the Hillary campaign and the DNC” and the Dems don’t have a good comeback for that. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/7 "2018-02-05T21:25:56Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Probably all of the above, plus the Dems are now playing defense after the release of the memo. “Trump is colluding with the Russians” has turned into “but the folder came from the Hillary campaign and the DNC” and the Dems don’t have a good comeback for that. > > Regards, > Shodan Actually they do. [The question is whether Trump will suppress it.](https://www.cnn.com/2018/02/05/politics/democratic-memo-release-house-intelligence/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/8 "2018-02-05T21:31:31Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Yup, and “the stock market is just _amazing_” has been one of Trump’s talking points in speeches for the past few months. I’d read a lot of opinion that the market was overdue for a correction, and that may just be what this is. Time will tell. The market peaked at 26,616.71 on Jan 26, it’s currently at 23.345.75 at 4:20 (EST) That’s 2270.96 down. The Howling Yam is strangely silent. ETA: Down 1175.21 just today. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/9 "2018-02-05T21:39:33Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Yup, and “the stock market is just _amazing_” has been one of Trump’s talking points in speeches for the past few months. I’d read a lot of opinion that the market was overdue for a correction, and that may just be what this is. Time will tell. He just tweeted and said he accepts full responsibility for the drop, and that making America great again is a monumental task too big for one man, even a president, to accomplish on his own. He said he learned a lesson in humility and from now on will defer to the wisdom and experience of other… sorry, I really tried to keep a straight face while typing this but it’s impossible. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/10 "2018-02-05T21:39:35Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Yup, and “the stock market is just _amazing_” **has been one of Trump’s talking points** in speeches for the past few months. … As it will continue to be—_even if the market drops 10,000 points_. (He won’t let the facts get in the way, and his fans will cheer anything he says, no matter how ridiculously false it may be.) As for the thread question \*\*\*Why are Trump and the Republicans polling better now? * * * … my guess is that the 42% (or so) of Americans who admire bullies, believe that Trump’s bullying has been extra-effective, lately. And they like that. A lot. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/11 "2018-02-05T21:53:45Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Yup, and “the stock market is just _amazing_” has been one of Trump’s talking points in speeches for the past few months. I’d read a lot of opinion that the market was overdue for a correction, and that may just be what this is. Time will tell. Linking himself to a stock market number that a president has little control over was probably a bad plan. But, he couldn’t help himself as that number was going up. I’m sure now that it’s going down, it won’t be his fault though. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/12 "2018-02-05T22:09:25Z")
To answer the OP, I think there are several factors. The tax deal at the end of the year was significant in that it shaped people’s perceptions of the president in a major way. Getting major legislation through the congress, in a way, “normalized” Trump as president. He still has high unfavorable ratings, but that has to do with his personality and, until December, his party was beginning to have doubts about his ability to get anything done. Some of those fears have been allayed. The economy will probably buoy Trump for the foreseeable future. The Mueller investigation is going to be a thorn in his rear until it comes to some sort of resolution. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/13 "2018-02-05T22:12:04Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Linking himself to a stock market number that a president has little control over was probably a bad plan. But, he couldn’t help himself as that number was going up. I’m sure now that it’s going down, it won’t be his fault though. Americans tend to have a very fuzzy view of politics generally. They tend to credit the President when they perceive economic opportunities and blame him when they don’t. Most Americans don’t understand the implications of the Russia investigation. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/14 "2018-02-05T22:14:38Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > The market peaked at 26,616.71 on Jan 26, it’s currently at 23.345.75 at 4:20 (EST) > That’s 2270.96 down. > The Howling Yam is strangely silent. > ETA: Down 1175.21 just today. That’s weather. [This is climate.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?ltr=1) Dow is still up well over 50% if you look at the 5 year data. Do you want to encourage another form of climate change denial? ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/15 "2018-02-05T22:15:16Z")
> [@Fiveyearlurker](#): > > Linking himself to a stock market number that a president has little control over was probably a bad plan. But, he couldn’t help himself as that number was going up. I’m sure now that it’s going down, it won’t be his fault though. He’ll just latch onto another statistic to boast about. “Jobs in manufacturing of fallout shelters and the production of Soylent Green are up 13%!! America is open for Business!” As to the OP, it looks like the majority of the Bump occurred around the shut down. The Dems put country over party and blinked first, and American likes winners more than losers. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/16 "2018-02-05T22:16:50Z")
So, the “strangely silent” part is due to Il Douche being such a prudent and cautious speaker? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/17 "2018-02-05T22:17:25Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > “Trump is colluding with the Russians” has turned into “but the folder came from the Hillary campaign and the DNC” and the Dems don’t have a good comeback for that. You don’t think that the entire non-Fox News watching population of the United States pointing and laughing at Devin Nunes constitutes a “good comeback?” What, are you expecting Dems to take the Presidential route, and tweet, “l’il Devin Nunes has a small pee-pee! Sad!” ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/18 "2018-02-05T22:20:02Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > That’s weather. [This is climate.](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI?ltr=1) Dow is still up well over 50% if you look at the 5 year data. Do you want to encourage another form of climate change denial? Then Trump should stop claiming he influences the weather. If he wants the credit for sunshine, he can damn well accept the blame for heavy rain and flooding. Four years of that five were under Obama. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/c67d28/32.png) [@The\_Tooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tooth)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/19 "2018-02-05T22:21:11Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > So, the “strangely silent” part is due to Il Douche being such a prudent and cautious speaker? The worthless scumbag can’t even be silent like a normal human being. He’s got to be silent strangely. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 5, 2018, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/20 "2018-02-05T22:24:11Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > You don’t think that the entire non-Fox News watching population of the United States pointing and laughing at Devin Nunes constitutes a “good comeback?” … I think you are severely over-estimating the number of people in America that know much of anything about the memo, let alone enough to point and laugh. I suspect something like 80% of the adult population would either make something incoherent up or give you a confused look if you asked them about the Nunes memo. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255.md?page=2)