# Why are Trump and the Republicans polling better now? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 5, 2018, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255 "2018-02-05T20:27:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![k9bfriender](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/k9bfriender/32/3283_2.png) [@k9bfriender](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/k9bfriender)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2018, 8:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/121 "2018-02-07T20:59:52Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > That’s part of it. The bigger issue is that there’s a horizontal line labeled “-800,000” that the March line does not exceed, or even reach. It’s not a big deal. I am not tied to that particular graph, but I will mention that such information gets updated all the time, and so that graph may have been correct according to BLS numbers when it was created. If I cared, I could find out if that is the case. I don’t, though, as it is more than “close enough for govt work.” > [@](#): > > Certainly the rate of job losses slowed down after March 2009. It was still shedding jobs (on a monthly basis) as late as September 2010. I can agree that that, for example, December 2009’s 277,000 job losses is less bad than March’s -802,000, but _I_ wouldn’t be comfortable making the claim that there was “an economic run that started in early 2009”, given that the economy was still shedding jobs and GDP was contracting at that point. > > If one’s measurement of “economic runs” is based on high and low points, not growth vs shrinkage, then it would appear that Obama’s “run” ran from March 2009 to May 2010, when job growth peaked (and therefore has been in decline ever since). If you wanted to perform the same analysis by GDP, then the high point was 2014 Q3, when GDP growth peaked at 5.2%, and the economy has been getting worse since then. That doesn’t seem like a particularly useful, or standard, way of measuring economic performance to me, but different strokes for different folks. This is why economists don’t just pick one arbitrary data point and track that to the exclusion of all others. You end up with conclusions like that the economy wasn’t getting better in early 2009, or that the economy has been getting worse since Q3 2014. If you find yourself coming to conclusions like that, and deciding that you are not getting useful measurements of economic performance, then you should broaden your view to take into account more factors of the economy. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2018, 9:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/122 "2018-02-07T21:00:02Z")
What Obama tried to do was _much_ bigger than what he could get past Congress. A perfect storm of opportunity. We had millions of people out of work, crumbling infrastructure in need of repair, prices for steel, concrete, etc. about as low as they could get, and we could borrow the money from eager lenders. Cherry on top: sooner or later, we had to do it _anyway_, it wasn’t so much spending money as doing what had to be done as cheaply as possible. Obama got some of what was needed, but not nearly enough. Now, we still gotta fix it, but it will cost a shit-ton more. And which political organization is chiefly responsible? Starts with an “R”. “R”, me hearties, “R”! “R”! ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2018, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/123 "2018-02-07T21:02:07Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Perhaps you should clarify for me. Could you cite the posts / portions thereof that you’re referring to? So I guess the answer to my question as to whether you were “aware that you are taking a different position here than you did earlier” would be “no”? For example, would you say that the following post reflects your strongly-held beliefs about how to measure economic performance: > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Do you agree that the GDP did not grow in Q1 nor Q2 of 2009? And do you agree that we lost jobs 11 out of 12 months in 2009? Or this one: > [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > GDP grew by 2.525% in 2017. In 2016 it only grew by 1.85%. I’d call that “significantly better”. Do you think you’re taking a consistent position in the above posts? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2018, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/124 "2018-02-07T21:09:43Z")
> [@elucidator](#): > > What Obama tried to do was _much_ bigger than what he could get past Congress. > > A perfect storm of opportunity. We had millions of people out of work, crumbling infrastructure in need of repair, prices for steel, concrete, etc. about as low as they could get, and we could borrow the money from eager lenders. Cherry on top: sooner or later, we had to do it _anyway_, it wasn’t so much spending money as doing what had to be done as cheaply as possible. Obama got some of what was needed, but not nearly enough. Now, we still gotta fix it, but it will cost a shit-ton more. > > And which political organization is chiefly responsible? Starts with an “R”. “R”, me hearties, “R”! “R”! We had this discussion around the (failed) ObamaCare repeal and CR / shutdown. I believe the new standard accepted around here is that if one party has a majority in both houses, then it’s got absolutely nothing to do with the minority party because regardless of how they vote, the majority should be able to pass it anyways. Did I understand that correctly? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Economist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/c89c15/32.png) [@Evil\_Economist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Economist)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2018, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/125 "2018-02-07T21:10:55Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I believe the new standard accepted around here is that if one party has a majority in both houses, then it’s got absolutely nothing to do with the minority party because regardless of how they vote, the majority should be able to pass it anyways. Is that the standard you apply in your posts, or do you apply a different standard? ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/126 "2018-02-18T12:29:07Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > My guess is perceptions of a good economy and stock market (though one could certainly argue that it’s been a continuing trend from the last few years of Obama’s term, and it’s not like things suddenly got amazingly better in the past 12 months). The shutdown issue might have moved things a bit to the Democrats’ disadvantage, too, but I suspect that that’d wind up being a very short-term effect. Dems were not telling the truth about the tax cuts, implying they are not for the middle class, when they are. Also, this Russia probe nonsense has zero evidence ( for getting proof ) of collusion. With the new infrastructure bill, many blue and red countries and states will finally get a facelift. Bottom line, he’s delivering on his promises, which isn’t easy to with the political landscape these days. As for border security, it will happen. Dems’s should have taken the first deal. If needed the Pentagon, which recovered an over sized budget as part of the infrastructure planning, could share shift some of their extra funds for border security. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 12:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/127 "2018-02-18T12:46:33Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Dems were not telling the truth about the tax cuts, implying they are not for the middle class, when they are. Also, this Russia probe nonsense has zero evidence ( for getting proof ) of collusion. > > With the new infrastructure bill, many blue and red countries and states will finally get a facelift. > > Bottom line, he’s delivering on his promises, which isn’t easy to with the political landscape these days. > > As for border security, it will happen. Dems’s should have taken the first deal. If needed the Pentagon, which recovered an over sized budget as part of the infrastructure planning, could share shift some of their extra funds for border security. OK, technically, a few crumbs were thrown to the middle class. Unless you’re on Mueller’s team, you have NO idea what evidence he has. Profitable facelifts only. By the way, facelifts don’t fix the underlying problem. I’m pretty sure the Pentagon has no authority to just give finds to another agency. ---
**Author:** ![jz78817](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jz78817/32/1028_2.png) [@jz78817](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jz78817)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/128 "2018-02-18T13:33:35Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > [Trump has seen a significant improvement in his polling since mid-December](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html), and [the generic ballot question has shown considerable improvement for Republicans](https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html) over the same time period. Why? > > I certainly don’t want to oversell it: an approval rating of 42% and a D+6.6% generic Congressional vote is still terrible, but definitely less terrible than it was about eight weeks ago. What is driving this? The tax cut? The Dems aborted shutdown? The good economic news? SOTU? Something else? I’ve seen a couple of people (Boomers, of course) on another message board saying in earnest that Trump is the “greatest president ever!” solely because of the tax cut. remains to be seen whether that bribe to the credulous is sustainable, or if it’s just _panem et circenses._ ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/129 "2018-02-18T16:48:11Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > OK, technically, a few crumbs were thrown to the middle class. > Unless you’re on Mueller’s team, you have NO idea what evidence he has. > Profitable facelifts only. By the way, facelifts don’t fix the underlying problem. > I’m pretty sure the Pentagon has no authority to just give finds to another agency. $1,000.00 can be a lot of money for some families. Even families that make over $100,000.00 a year. I used the wrong term when I said facelifts. Change it to area improvements. Travel around the world a bit, our infrastructure is much older and needs to be replaced or fixed. On Mueller’s team, it’s a partisan effort. Didn’t he have to dismiss a few people? And do you think he’s wouldn’t nail Trump the second he could? He’s got nothing. But let the Dem’s keep acting the way they are. One can not just be the party of no and expect to win, spending their time hoping for something in a case where over a year in no collusion has been found. If the Pentagon views border security as a priority why can’t they take the project over? Birder security by the way is not just to keep illegal aliens out. Think human trafficking, hard core drugs, radar and sonar. ---
**Author:** ![Sinaptics](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/278dde/32.png) [@Sinaptics](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sinaptics)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/130 "2018-02-18T16:50:25Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Dems were not telling the truth about the tax cuts, implying they are not for the middle class, when they are. Also, this Russia probe nonsense has zero evidence ( for getting proof ) of collusion. > > With the new infrastructure bill, many blue and red countries and states will finally get a facelift. > > Bottom line, he’s delivering on his promises, which isn’t easy to with the political landscape these days. > > As for border security, it will happen. Dems’s should have taken the first deal. If needed the Pentagon, which recovered an over sized budget as part of the infrastructure planning, could share shift some of their extra funds for border security. Collusion has already been proven ([Donald Jr meeting](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/newly-disclosed-email-sheds-light-on-trump-jr-meeting-with-russian-lawyer/2017/10/09/2d0fecb0-a9e3-11e7-92d1-58c702d2d975_story.html?utm_term=.6139b5a362b2)). What hasn’t yet been proven is conspiracy. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 5:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/131 "2018-02-18T17:02:36Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > $1,000.00 can be a lot of money for some families. Even families that make over $100,000.00 a year. > > I used the wrong term when I said facelifts. Change it to area improvements. Travel around the world a bit, our infrastructure is much older and needs to be replaced or fixed. > > On Mueller’s team, it’s a partisan effort. Didn’t he have to dismiss a few people? And do you think he’s wouldn’t nail Trump the second he could? He’s got nothing. > > But let the Dem’s keep acting the way they are. One can not just be the party of no and expect to win, spending their time hoping for something in a case where over a year in no collusion has been found. > > **If the Pentagon views border security as a priority why can’t they take the project over? Birder security by the way is not just to keep illegal aliens out. Think human trafficking, hard core drugs, radar and sonar.** There’s that pesky Constitutional thingy that prohibits the military from operating inside the US. Bullshit it’s a partisan effort. Mueller was praised to the sky by the GOP. Until he started closing in. So he dismissed some agents who weren’t discreet. Do you really think all FBI agents have no political leanings? Unless you’re claiming they actually manufactured evidence and you think Mueller could be fooled that easily, you’ve got jack shit. He nails Trump once he has what he needs to make it airtight. I’m curious what proof you have that he has no evidence. Remember that Manafort, Gates and Popadopalous were a complete surprise. Mueller and his team are leak-proof. As for that infrastructure, read Trump’s “plan”. It mainly encourages private investment. That means only potentially profitable projects will be done, if at all. Lots of toll roads and bridges. 1000/year is only 83/month. That is not a better house, a better car, college savings or retirement savings. It’s a bit more for groceries or more TV channels. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/132 "2018-02-18T20:51:17Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > On Mueller’s team, it’s a partisan effort. Didn’t he have to dismiss a few people? And do you think he’s wouldn’t nail Trump the second he could? He’s got nothing. Biggest line of crap I’ve heard in a long time. Not only do you know nothing about what Mueller has got, you clearly don’t know anything about him. He’s going step-by-slow-step, building and working his way up the ladder but not skipping any steps in between. Like a professional prosecutor, which he is. You’re the one who’s got nothing…but flawed logic. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/133 "2018-02-18T22:57:09Z")
> [@Sinaptics](#): > > Collusion has already been proven ([Donald Jr meeting](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/newly-disclosed-email-sheds-light-on-trump-jr-meeting-with-russian-lawyer/2017/10/09/2d0fecb0-a9e3-11e7-92d1-58c702d2d975_story.html?utm_term=.6139b5a362b2)). What hasn’t yet been proven is conspiracy. If that is your standard then I guess every family member of a political meeting with non-USA citizens is a conspiracy. If you want quid pro quo, look no further than the Clinton foundation. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/134 "2018-02-18T23:00:12Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > There’s that pesky Constitutional thingy that prohibits the military from operating inside the US. > > Bullshit it’s a partisan effort. Oh? Why have big time Clinton donor’s on your team then? [http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/365365-muellers-has-a-partisan-pack-of-wolves-and-an-illegitimate-investigation](http://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/365365-muellers-has-a-partisan-pack-of-wolves-and-an-illegitimate-investigation) ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/135 "2018-02-18T23:01:56Z")
Nevermind. ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/136 "2018-02-18T23:04:39Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Biggest line of crap I’ve heard in a long time. Not only do you know nothing about what Mueller has got, you clearly don’t know anything about him. He’s going step-by-slow-step, building and working his way up the ladder but not skipping any steps in between. Like a professional prosecutor, which he is. > > You’re the one who’s got nothing…but flawed logic. Ever hear of Alan Dershowitz? A famous law professor, and democrat. He said Muller has NOTHING. And if he had something substantial, it would be used or at least leaked by now. > **[Dershowitz: Mueller May Go For “Obstruction” Because He Has Nothing Else](https://thenewamerican.com/us/politics/dershowitz-mueller-may-go-for-obstruction-because-he-has-nothing-else/)** > > Alan Dershowitz warns that Mueller doesn't have anything against Trump, so he might try to create an obstruction of justice charge. by Steve Byas I’m not sure what happened to the reason of the left. The news the left watches continues to keep them high on catnip. Try reading other sources too. I could list several, but I really don’t need to. -SL ---
**Author:** ![Silver\_lining](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/aca169/32.png) [@Silver\_lining](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Silver_lining)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/137 "2018-02-18T23:10:37Z")
> [@Anglachel](#): > > I am no Trump apologist, but if you think that his fiscal policy hasn’t been a (short-term) positive influence on the stock market, you’re kidding yourself. Only time will tell if the tax reform is beneficial in the long run though. Those who put politics above country have a hard time admitting its working, but you are right. Business won’t have to pay high amounts in taxes meaning they can build, or hire with some of the savings. We are seeing some corporations giving raises and bonuses already, and the tax cuts have not even started. Furthermore, foreign investors are chomping at the bit to invest more in the USA. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/138 "2018-02-18T23:41:24Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Ever hear of Alan Dershowitz? A famous law professor, and democrat. He said Muller has NOTHING. And if he had something substantial, it would be used or at least leaked by now. > > [https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/28125-dershowitz-mueller-may-go-for-obstruction-because-he-has-nothing-else](https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/28125-dershowitz-mueller-may-go-for-obstruction-because-he-has-nothing-else) > > I’m not sure what happened to the reason of the left. The news the left watches continues to keep them high on catnip. Try reading other sources too. > > I could list several, but I really don’t need to. > > -SL I think you also missed that we look at historical sources: > **[The History Place - Impeachment: Richard Nixon](http://www.historyplace.com/unitedstates/impeachments/nixon.htm)** > > The events surrounding Watergate and impeachment proceedings against Nixon. That allows people like me to report what many right wing sources do, they do omit enough of the past so as to misled many like you. In essense: Nixon was impeached for obstruction of justice, contemp of congress and other issues. That burglary at watergate was not a reason, and so it is in this case IMHO. Obstructing justice is a very serious and damning issue for a president involved on it. As for leaks, there was next to nothing about Papadoupolous or the just pointed out 13 Russians commiting fraud to influence the past elections. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/139 "2018-02-18T23:44:03Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > If that is your standard then I guess every family member of a political meeting with non-USA citizens is a conspiracy. > > If you want quid pro quo, look no further than the Clinton foundation. Uh-uh. _You_ want _quid pro quo_ because you think it distracts from Trump. Sorry, no joy. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2018, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255/140 "2018-02-18T23:47:01Z")
> [@Silver\_lining](#): > > Ever hear of Alan Dershowitz? A famous law professor, and democrat. He said Muller has NOTHING. And if he had something substantial, it would be used or at least leaked by now. > > [https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/28125-dershowitz-mueller-may-go-for-obstruction-because-he-has-nothing-else](https://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/politics/item/28125-dershowitz-mueller-may-go-for-obstruction-because-he-has-nothing-else) > > I’m not sure what happened to the reason of the left. The news the left watches continues to keep them high on catnip. Try reading other sources too. > > I could list several, but I really don’t need to. > > -SL Seriously? That’s your evidence? Alan Dershowitz? Alert the media when he’s anywhere near the Mueller investigation, let alone knowing what they’ve got. Got a real source, from the Mueller investigation? Let me answer for you. No fucking way. You’re throwing up cotton candy thinking that people won’t see through it. Oh, and btw, I’m not part of the ‘left’ that you like to disparage so much. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-trump-and-the-republicans-polling-better-now/808255.md?page=8)