The potential for high profit is what drives innovation and exploration. Oil companies are making big money right now because they took risks and invested money that paid off, big time. Take away the potential for a big payoff, and people will stop taking the risk. And that hurts all of us.
Take the billions of dollars that oil companies are currently investing the Alberta Oil Sands. That’s expensive oil. It will never be competitive with middle-east oil in terms of cost per barrel. But if oil stays above $20/barrel, the companies can recoup their investment. And if it stays at $70/bbl, they’ll make big profits. HOWEVER, if oil plunges in price, they could lose their shirts. This has happened before - the oil sands saw major investment during the last big oil price spike, and those companies who invested there lost billions when oil dropped back down to below $20/bbl and stayed there for a long time.
So ask yourself this: you are an oil company executive. You’re faced with a decision to invest 10 billion dollars in oil sands development. The math looks like this:
- oil drops below $20/bbl. We lose 10 billion.
- oil hovers $30 - we break even, recouping costs on net present value basis
- oil stays at the 10 year futures price of $60 - we make enough profit to make our investment worthwhile against the opportunity cost of spending that money elsewhere
- Oil goes to $100/bbl, we make fabulous profit.
Based on all that, they decide the risk is worth it, and proceed. We all get a new source of oil.
Now take that last line and change it to, “Oil goes to $100/bbl, we start making fabulous profits, people whine, government steps in and tells us we are profiting too much, and takes the profit from us.”
Think they’ll still invest the 10 billion? If their windfall upside is limited by government, what do you think they will invest in? Low risk, guaranteed profits. And all the difficult-to-get oil stays in the ground.
Oil companies take big risks. They can spend millions drilling dry holes. They can invest billions in technologies or extraction methods that never make it. They’re doing fine now, but that’s no guarantee they will continue to do so in the future.
Incidentally, if their gamble failed and they were all on hard times right now, would you consider writing a message saying, “It’s unfair that oil companies don’t make enough profit - should we have government subsidize them?”