# Why are we so evenly divided? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2018, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227 "2018-11-09T04:13:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/1 "2018-11-09T04:13:34Z")
There was another thread recently discussing the roots of the division in this country. But what I’m wondering is why it’s so darned even. We’ve got three Senate races where the margin of victory is within a fraction of a percent. Why can’t one party or the other tweak its policies just enough to make that 50/50 split 52/48? ---
**Author:** ![Enola\_Gay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ab097/32.png) [@Enola\_Gay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enola_Gay)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/2 "2018-11-09T04:35:12Z")
It’s a great question & my WAG is that it has to do with the 2 party system. There have been times when it has been 52/48 but we’re in something of a political civil war right now. Both parties are constantly trying to change public perception & they’re pretty evenly matched. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/3 "2018-11-09T05:06:37Z")
It’s akin to the median IQ score being 100. Those above are Democrats, below are Republicans. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 5:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/4 "2018-11-09T05:35:30Z")
It’s because we have two Americas: rural white America and metropolitan multicultural America, and we’re going tribal. It’s a contest to see which side can motivate its voters to come out more. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 6:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/5 "2018-11-09T06:38:56Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It’s because we have two Americas: rural white America and metropolitan multicultural America . . . The two have much more in common than they have differences, and at bottom the nation mostly isn’t divided. However, the only way the Republican party can survive is by continually propping up this narrative, and since most Americans are simplistic, it works. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/6 "2018-11-09T06:39:39Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > Why can’t one party or the other tweak its policies just enough to make that 50/50 split 52/48? It’s perhaps the most interesting question in US politics. IMO both parties are leaving significant “money on the table”, rejecting relatively straightforward policy shifts that would improve their electoral performance. For the Republicans it’s adopting moderately populist economic policies and abandoning tax cuts for the rich as their supreme policy priority. For the Democrats it’s moderating their positions on hot-button issues like immigration,abortion and guns, not in a dramatic way but just going back to where they were in 2006-2008. Why don’t the parties do this? Basically the donor class. On the Republican side, there is a massive infrastructure paid for by rich people and corporations who want to see their taxes cut. This not only funds the party, it also provides lucrative jobs for operatives and retired politicians. On the Democratic side there is something similar though more diffuse: lot of rich socially liberal donors as well as powerful activist groups which keep pulling the party leftwards. ---
**Author:** ![Enola\_Gay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/3ab097/32.png) [@Enola\_Gay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enola_Gay)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 7:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/7 "2018-11-09T07:15:29Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It’s because we have two Americas: rural white America and metropolitan multicultural America, and we’re going tribal. It’s a contest to see which side can motivate its voters to come out more. Right but why does rural white America have the same number of people (voters) as metropolitan multicultural America? Are the populations of each demographic the same? ---
**Author:** ![Malden\_Capell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/malden_capell/32/5274_2.png) [@Malden\_Capell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malden_Capell)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/8 "2018-11-09T07:31:18Z")
> [@Enola\_Gay](#): > > Right but why does rural white America have the same number of people (voters) as metropolitan multicultural America? Are the populations of each demographic the same? Turnout. Younger (more Democratic) people tend to stay home, and the Republicans have systematically gerrymandered and vote-suppressed with laws that make vote registration and actual voting much harder for poor (Democratic) non-whites. If turnout was closer to 100% rather than the 50% it tends to be, the Republicans would be buried. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 8:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/9 "2018-11-09T08:29:21Z")
It’s an interesting question. Selecting a representative in politics is vastly different than selection of a CEO. A CEO is selected by a board consisting of highly experienced, educated and proven business people. They usually make pretty good decisions and with large majorites. In a democratic election the lowest educated, dimmest (whatever metric you care to name) 50% of people have an equal say to the highest educated, smartest 50%. Politicians craft their positions on issues to give what they think the majority (or their majority) want, so in a two party system with powerful single issue divisions the system sets itself up to approach 50/50 doesn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 8:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/10 "2018-11-09T08:43:20Z")
1. People love a horse race, so if a voter is politically unaffiliated she’ll tend to gravitate to the underdog. 2. The parties are willing to open up to Centrism and cross-party ideas when they’re in a losing position. Once they’re in a winning position, they shift back towards their partisan roots. This is an artifact of it being that the people who run are more partisan, on average, than your average voter so they’ve got constant political blue balls and can’t help themselves the instant they think they can get away with going crazy. At which point they then alienate most of the voters. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 9:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/11 "2018-11-09T09:42:36Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#): > > 1. People love a horse race, so if a voter is politically unaffiliated she’ll tend to gravitate to the underdog. I would say the same thing but from the other side: if a candidate looks to be cruising to victory then apathy will kick in for his/her supporters, which will tend to balance districts out over time. * * * I’m still surprised that with how crazy the GOP has become that they can convince 50% of voters, but as mentioned upthread: the system is rigged with as much gerrymandering and voter suppression as required to be first past the post. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 9:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/12 "2018-11-09T09:48:20Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I would say the same thing but from the other side: if a candidate looks to be cruising to victory then apathy will kick in for his/her supporters, which will tend to balance districts out over time. Probably also true. > [@](#): > > I’m still surprised that with how crazy the GOP has become that they can convince 50% of voters, but as mentioned upthread: the system is rigged with as much gerrymandering and voter suppression as required to be first past the post. 40% of the electorate thinks that the Earth is 10,000 years old. It doesn’t take a lot more than that to get near 50%. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 11:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/13 "2018-11-09T11:39:22Z")
Mississippi is 40% black but they cannot elect a black person to a statewide office mostly due to turnout. ---
**Author:** ![Isamu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/7c8e57/32.png) [@Isamu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Isamu)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/14 "2018-11-09T12:28:20Z")
BTW I wasn’t implying that republicans are the stupid 50%. Obviously many very smart and very educated people are republicans. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/15 "2018-11-09T13:07:54Z")
> [@guizot](#): > > The two have much more in common than they have differences, and at bottom the nation mostly isn’t divided. However, the only way the Republican party can survive is by continually propping up this narrative, and since most Americans are simplistic, it works. Oh, I think you’re mistaken. We’re bitterly divided over the question of how to define America. Is America a country that lives accordingly to WASP customs, traditions, and rules, or is it a place that can be more flexible and inclusive and egalitarian? We’re absolutely bitterly divided over that question. Yes, we have shared concerns, but that’s not what’s on the minds of Trump voters. And don’t expect changes anytime soon. Don’t expect voters to make ‘rational’ decisions and to wake up and realize that we’re better off subscribing to values like cooperation and integration. A lot of white Americans feel more comfortable knowing that they have a reserved seat at the dinner table. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 1:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/16 "2018-11-09T13:14:16Z")
> [@Enola\_Gay](#): > > Right but why does rural white America have the same number of people (voters) as metropolitan multicultural America? Are the populations of each demographic the same? They’ve been energized. They believe they have a champion fighting for the preservation of America as a white Christian nation, and they’re taking up his fight. There are obviously political hazards in the suburbs, where moderate conservatives might be turned off by the harsh tone and rhetoric. The solution to that problem is voter suppression of the opposition, which is what they absolutely intend to carry out: make sure that the “right” people can vote in greater numbers. That way they can maintain a demographic advantage. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/17 "2018-11-09T13:21:15Z")
[Hotelling’s law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelling%27s_law) may have something to do with it. > [@](#): > > Hotelling’s law predicts that a street with two shops will also find both shops right next to each other at the same halfway point. Each shop will serve half the market; one will draw customers from the north, the other all customers from the south. > [@](#): > > An extension of the principle into other environments of rational choice such as election “markets” can explain the common complaint that, for instance, the presidential candidates of the two American political parties are “practically the same”. Once each candidate is confirmed during primaries, they are usually established within their own partisan camps. The remaining undecided electorate resides in the middle of the political spectrum, and there is a tendency for the candidates to “rush for the middle” in order to appeal to this crucial bloc. Like the paradigmatic example, the assumption is that people will choose the least distant option, (in this case, the distance is ideological) and that the most votes can be had by being directly in the center. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/18 "2018-11-09T14:56:00Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > [Hotelling’s law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelling%27s_law) may have something to do with it. Except that Trump didn’t rush to the middle; instead he has established very clear political lines and asked people to declare where they stand. Politics, including democracies, are inherently tribal to a large degree. What changes from one campaign to the next, one era to the next is how the tribes are defined. Are they defined according to national interests, or are they defined along ethnic, religious, cultural, and racial lines? Or are they defined in other ways? We’re inherently tribal, but not inherently racist or cultural xenophobes. We can learn to prefer cooperation with others over raw competition, and increasingly, with daunting challenges of climate change and increasingly sophisticated weaponry, the survival of the species will depend on our ability to recognize this. ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/19 "2018-11-09T15:20:35Z")
> [@E-DUB](#): > > There was another thread recently discussing the roots of the division in this country. But what I’m wondering is why it’s so darned even. We’ve got three Senate races where the margin of victory is within a fraction of a percent. Why can’t one party or the other tweak its policies just enough to make that 50/50 split 52/48? How many senate races should be close to 50/50 in your opinion, and how many should be 52/48? How does the fact that most of the races are not close at all enter into your consideration? I started listing all this years margins, but I got bored Dianne Feinstein 53.8% Chris Murphy 58.4% Tom Carper 60% Maxie Hirono 72.7% Mike Braun 52.9% Angus King 54.2% Ben Cardin 64.2% and so on and so forth. People have made a lot of good points, but they have ignored a major flaw in the premise of the OP and are discussing various ways the votes are actually evenly split. ---
**Author:** ![puddleglum](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puddleglum/32/137_2.png) [@puddleglum](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puddleglum)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2018, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227/20 "2018-11-09T16:19:37Z")
> [@Thudlow\_Boink](#): > > [Hotelling’s law](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hotelling%27s_law) may have something to do with it. This, Hotelling’s law and the median voter theorem explain 90% of politics. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-we-so-evenly-divided/824227.md?page=2)