# Why are young black men in the US 21X more likely to be killed by police than young white men? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 13, 2014, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156 "2014-10-13T01:48:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/381 "2014-10-16T14:31:21Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I don’t understand how doing something to one group at a rate 50% to 250% greater than another group is _not_ disproportionate. But then again I also don’t understand how you can be 6 times warier. What is the basic unit of wariness and how is it measured? What’s a basic level of wariness? What’s a situation where one might be 5 times warier? What about 10 times? Just because we don’t have a metric for wariness doesn’t mean that it can’t be dialed up or down. A perfect example is the black guy in the white truck who got shot by the cop when he was complying with the cops request for ID and he reached back into his truck. The cop was jittery, a Nervous Nellie who should never have been given a gun. Wrong as it was, I doubt he would have had that heightened level of wariness/nervousness/suspicion with everyone he’s ever stopped, including the 85 year-old woman. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/382 "2014-10-16T14:35:14Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > No, I’m not. I’m pointing out that the vastly greater amount of them that aren’t decent and non-violent are being treated how they deserve. What about the majority – the non-violent ones? Are they being treated how they deserve? > [@](#): > > Being more wary of someone isn’t treating them differently. So you don’t advocate treating them differently after all? You think young black male suspects should be treated the same as young white male suspects? > [@](#): > > That you are too damn ignorant to understand the (extremely simple) explanation I gave, and too damn arrogant to fix that ignorance, is not my problem. It’s yours. You haven’t even tried to explain it. 6 to 14 magically became 12 to 28. Maybe I’m missing something, but statistics don’t magically double for no reason, from my understanding. If black people are 6 times more likely to be violent, than a cop is 6 times more likely, when encountering a black suspect, to experience a violent response. Why did you double the number? > [@](#): > > You’ve done it again in the posts quoted here. You are accusing me of suggesting that black people be treated differently for reasons not based on fact, when I’ve made it abundantly clear that I support treating everybody as the facts show they deserve. That’s not what you said. You said I stymied discussion with false accusations of racism. That requires me to call something “racist”! Calling something “wrong” is not the same as calling it “racist”. Is it stymieing discussion to say something is wrong? > [@](#): > > Please, as I’ve repeatedly asked, bring some evidence that innocent, non-violent black people are being disproportionately killed by the police, and get this thread at least somewhere near on topic. 21 times more young black men are killed. Since only 6 to 9 times as many commit violent crimes, there is a disparity here (your nonsensical doubling disregarded). > [@](#): > > No. No, I’m not. I’m suggesting that a greater proportion of black dads are criminals, and are not bringing their children up properly. Cite that a greater proportion of black dads are not raising their children properly? > [@](#): > > Including bringing up their children to hate and fear the police, instead of respect them, and blaming the police for the failing of their culture. Cite that a greater proportion of black dads are doing this? > [@](#): > > No, I didn’t double the violent crime statistics. To explain again, young black men are, based on the statistics presented in this thread, 6-14 times more likely to be violent. They are also twice as likely to be criminal. From that, I’m extrapolating that they are twice as likely to come into contact with the police\*, so the police are 12-28 times as likely to come into contact with a violent young black man. Which fits perfectly. You can’t double it here. Young black men are 6 to 9 times more likely to be involved in violent crime – not just be more violent. That likelihood of being criminal is _already included_ in the likelihood of committing violent crime. You fail at statistics here. Your 12-28 number is invented out of whole cloth, or failed math. > [@](#): > > Already answered that. No, I wouldn’t think it was fine, I didn’t think 21x was fine until I actually read the facts and statistics. As has been shown, your reading of the facts and statistics are wrong. Your 12-28 number is complete bunk. Bad, bad math. More failure. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/383 "2014-10-16T14:37:40Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > It depends. I know you want to ignore this point, but it’s an important one. I would agree if both men were dressed in Brooks Brothers suits and ties and driving Volvos. These cues, as examples, override other cues that may be given off by race What if both men are dressed in baggy jeans and hoodies? What if they’re both dressed like Batman? > [@](#): > > Now, could you please opine on my example: Should a cop be expected to approach a car driven by an 85 year-old woman the same we he would approach a car driven by a 20-year-old male? He certainly loses nothing by doing so. I have no problem with a cop approaching both cars the same way. There is no risk to the cop in doing so. If he wants to approach them differently, that might be fine too, but it’s irrelevant to the question of disparate treatment of young black men. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/384 "2014-10-16T14:40:06Z")
I just want to reiterate here about **Steophan** ’s failed statistics. He took the 6 to 14 number (the 14 is unsupported – it should be 6 to 9) for the greater likelihood of young black men being involved in violent crime, and then multiplied it by _another_ factor – that (according to him) young black men are twice as likely to be criminals. This second factor, whatever it is, is _already included_ in the 6 to 9 (or 6 to 14) number. It can’t be applied twice. So **Steophan** ’s math here is totally bunk. He fails statistics. Young black men are 21 times more likely to be killed by police than young white men, while they’re only 6 to 9 times as likely to commit violent crime. This discrepancy exists. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/385 "2014-10-16T14:41:20Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Just because we don’t have a metric for wariness doesn’t mean that it can’t be dialed up or down. A perfect example is the black guy in the white truck who got shot by the cop when he was complying with the cops request for ID and he reached back into his truck. The cop was jittery, a Nervous Nellie who should never have been given a gun. Wrong as it was, I doubt he would have had that heightened level of wariness/nervousness/suspicion with everyone he’s ever stopped, including the 85 year-old woman. It’s very reasonable to believe that his nervousness may have been heightened by the skin color of the man. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/386 "2014-10-16T14:43:34Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Just because we don’t have a metric for wariness doesn’t mean that it can’t be dialed up or down. Then **Steophan** ’s statement is meaningless. Agreed? > [@](#): > > Wrong as it was, I doubt he would have had that heightened level of wariness/nervousness/suspicion with everyone he’s ever stopped, including the 85 year-old woman. Did he ever shoot an 85-year-old white woman? ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/387 "2014-10-16T14:55:54Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > What about the majority – the non-violent ones? Are they being treated how they deserve? This thread is not about them, unless you have any evidence that it’s those who are being killed by the police. But no, in many cases they are not being treated how they deserve. But that has nothing whatsoever to do with this thread. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > This second factor, whatever it is, is _already included_ in the 6 to 9 (or 6 to 14) number. It can’t be applied twice. I’m not applying it twice. Or are you somehow unaware that young black people come to the attention of the police far more often that young white people, and even if they were being treated equally would be twice as likely to come to their attention based solely on crime statistics? The point is, that for any given young black person, the expected likelihood of being shot is 6-14 times, based on the statistical likelihood of violence. What you are ignoring is that a greater proportion of black people than white come into contact with the police. The police are only shooting a subset of the people they come into contact with, not a random sampling of the entire population. _That_ is where the factor of two comes from, based on the fact that young black men are twice as likely to commit crime than young white men, and using that as a proxy for the amount of black people they encounter. But, fuck it, let’s take this further. We all know that the cops are more than twice as likely to encounter any given young black man than young white man. Which would mean that they are actually shooting far _less_ of the young black men they encounter than the young white men. This is because they are, due to some level of racism, more likely to _stop_ young black men, but no more likely to _shoot_ one. Please, learn how statistics work. You’re embarrassing yourself. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/388 "2014-10-16T14:58:39Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > What if both men are dressed in baggy jeans and hoodies? What if they’re both dressed like Batman? For the Batman example, I’d say yes. Because, again, we have introduced cues that override the cue of race. Not so much with the baggy pants and hoodie. If you could show me that whites who dress that way are violent in the same proportion that blacks are, I’d say yes. Otherwise, no. > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > He certainly loses nothing by doing so. I have no problem with a cop approaching both cars the same way. There is no risk to the cop in doing so. If he wants to approach them differently, that might be fine too, but it’s irrelevant to the question of disparate treatment of young black men. It is NOT irrelevant. You either say that cops are doing the natural thing in assessing a threat and acting correspondingly, or they are not. You seem to grudgingly admit that they should be able to do this, but you don’t want to say it flatly because of where it leads. The real problem is that blackness has become a cue for “greater propensity for violence”. You want to fix things, you need to fix that. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/389 "2014-10-16T14:59:41Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > It’s very reasonable to believe that his nervousness may have been heightened by the skin color of the man. I agree. Not sure why you would think I wouldn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/390 "2014-10-16T15:00:55Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > Or are you somehow unaware that young black people come to the attention of the police far more often that young white people, and even if they were being treated equally would be twice as likely to come to their attention based solely on crime statistics? Policing strategies can make it far, far more likely than that. Which is a problem on its own. > [@](#): > > But, fuck it, let’s take this further. We all know that the cops are more than twice as likely to encounter any given young black man than young white man. Which would mean that they are actually shooting far _less_ of the young black men they encounter than the young white men. That does not follow at all. That doesn’t come within light years of making sense. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/391 "2014-10-16T15:02:01Z")
> [@Steophan](#): > > But no, in many cases they are not being treated how they deserve. But that has nothing whatsoever to do with this thread. That’s exactly what this thread is about. > [@](#): > > I’m not applying it twice. Or are you somehow unaware that young black people come to the attention of the police far more often that young white people, and even if they were being treated equally would be twice as likely to come to their attention based solely on crime statistics? This makes no sense. The same would apply to white people (and all other demographics). White people who are more statitiscally represented in crime stats are similarly more likely to come into contact with police. This 6 to 9 times is a ratio – so the ratio stays the same, since the police will also be more likely to come into contact with white people (and others) that are more likely to be criminals. > [@](#): > > The point is, that for any given young black person, the expected likelihood of being shot is 6-14 times 9, not 14. > [@](#): > > , based on the statistical likelihood of violence. What you are ignoring is that a greater proportion of black people than white come into contact with the police. This is already taken into account. It’s a ratio. > [@](#): > > The police are only shooting a subset of the people they come into contact with, not a random sampling of the entire population. _That_ is where the factor of two comes from, based on the fact that young black men are twice as likely to commit crime than young white men, and using that as a proxy for the amount of black people they encounter. Nope. Makes no sense. The cops are similarly more likely to come into contact with young white men than old white men – but that doesn’t mean these ratios multiply. Young black men commit violent crimes at a rate of 6 to 9 times that of young white men. That statistic already includes the increased likelihood of coming into contact with them. > [@](#): > > But, fuck it, let’s take this further. We all know that the cops are more than twice as likely to encounter any given young black man than young white man. No they’re not. This makes no sense whatsoever. > [@](#): > > Which would mean that they are actually shooting far _less_ of the young black men they encounter than the young white men. This is because they are, due to some level of racism, more likely to _stop_ young black men, but no more likely to _shoot_ one. Complete blather. Gibberish math. > [@](#): > > Please, learn how statistics work. You’re embarrassing yourself. LOL. You’re really reaching here. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/392 "2014-10-16T15:02:55Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Then **Steophan** ’s statement is meaningless. Agreed? Which statement, specifically, are you referring to? > [@Marley23](#): > > Did he ever shoot an 85-year-old white woman? Huh? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/393 "2014-10-16T15:03:53Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Young black men, statistically, commit between 6 and 9 times the violent crime of young white men. Why are they killed 21 times more by police? If they were killed 6-9 times more by police, would that feel acceptable? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/394 "2014-10-16T15:04:35Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > For the Batman example, I’d say yes. Because, again, we have introduced cues that override the cue of race. Not so much with the baggy pants and hoodie. If you could show me that whites who dress that way are violent in the same proportion that blacks are, I’d say yes. Show me that black people who dress that way are violent in a different proportion than white people who do. > [@](#): > > It is NOT irrelevant. You either say that cops are doing the natural thing in assessing a threat and acting correspondingly, or they are not. You seem to grudgingly admit that they should be able to do this, but you don’t want to say it flatly because of where it leads. The real problem is that blackness has become a cue for “greater propensity for violence”. You want to fix things, you need to fix that. Threat assessment should be based on behavior. Basing it on skin color _hurts the community_, and hurts society. It hurts cops. I’m saying they shouldn’t do this based on race _at all_. Perhaps other factors should be included. Race certainly should not, because of the harmful effects it has on society. Further, it’s unnecessary. Cops lose nothing whatsoever by treating young black and young white men the same. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/395 "2014-10-16T15:05:37Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If they were killed 6-9 times more by police, would that feel acceptable? It would mean that **Steophan** ’s argument is coherent, at least. Right now, he’s just making up numbers and applying multiples anywhere he chooses. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/396 "2014-10-16T15:06:41Z")
Can anyone besides **Steophan** make any sense of the 12-28 number? He sure can’t explain it. Can someone else give it a try? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/397 "2014-10-16T15:09:11Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > Which statement, specifically, are you referring to? This one: > [@Steophan](#): > > Yes. He should be 6-14 times more wary of violence. If wariness can’t be measured that precisely - and we all know it can’t - the statement is meaningless. > [@magellan01](#): > > Huh? I may have misunderstood you. I thought you were saying the officer was just as likely to shoot an 85-year-old woman as he was to shoot a black man, but I think you might’ve been saying the opposite. The wording was a little unclear. > [@Velocity](#): > > If they were killed 6-9 times more by police, would that feel acceptable? We’d have to establish if those statistics were based on equal policing, and I’ve already posted evidence that that’s not the case. No, it’s not enough that shootings match up with broad crime stats. We also have to know that the last are being applied fairly. ---
**Author:** ![magellan01](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@magellan01](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magellan01)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/398 "2014-10-16T15:26:23Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > This one: > > If wariness can’t be measured that precisely - and we all know it can’t - the statement is meaningless. I strongly disagree. As I said, just because we lack a formal metric for wariness doesn’t mean that we can’t dial it up or down. How about anger, happiness, joy, fear…do those things only exist as toggle switches, too? > [@Marley23](#): > > I may have misunderstood you. I thought you were saying the officer was just as likely to shoot an 85-year-old woman as he was to shoot a black man, but I think you might’ve been saying the opposite. The wording was a little unclear. Okay. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/399 "2014-10-16T15:27:11Z")
> [@magellan01](#): > > I strongly disagree. As I said, just because we lack a formal metric for wariness doesn’t mean that we can’t dial it up or down. _That’s not the question._ ---
**Author:** ![TommyzNR](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/edb3f5/32.png) [@TommyzNR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TommyzNR)\ **Post date:** [October 16, 2014, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156/400 "2014-10-16T15:57:54Z")
The answer to the OP is that your statistic doesn’t tell us anything valuable other than maybe we should question what is happening (like you are doing). To find out if the 21x statistic is alarming you would have to produce statistics on how people react when confronted by police and then compare if the police response (to any particular reaction) is different according to race. Since you have grouped them as black vs white, you should be able to come up with statistics on where (on the street, at their home, in the park) suspected violent criminals are confronted by police and by what method (warrant, probable cause, casual questioning). If you can group those statistics into your two buckets and find trends that show black youths are killed more often given the same circumstances than white youths, then let’s be concerned about your statistic. The OP is outraged based on very little statistical value. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-are-young-black-men-in-the-us-21x-more-likely-to-be-killed-by-police-than-young-white-men/701156.md?page=21)