Yeah, and I think you can read that from the statistics as well by looking at the 1-4 rates, which are somewhat higher for whites. Children in that range barely swim at all so the rate probably just reflects the difference in exposure. But just a few years later, there’s a massive disparity.
At any rate, this is getting pretty far afield, so I guess I’ll leave this as a lesson to be careful with statistics. And teach your kids to swim!
This is not close to a 21 to 1 ratio.
Please read the below again.
It’s sort of like the statistics that used to be touted that “the rate of AIDS among heterosexuals is growing faster than for any other group!!!” because AIDS among adult heterosexual non-IVDAs is such a small number that even a small increase has a huge impact on the proportions.
Of course part of it is the dispropotionate amount of violent and street crime committed by blacks means that the police are going to be disproportionately more suspicious of black males, and black males are going to be more suspicious of police, both because they perceive themselves to have been unfailrly hassled (if they are innocent) or don’t want to be caught (if guilty).
Regards,
Shodan
No.
This is very clear, unless you think ProPublica is lying. Divide 31.17 by 1.47.
The cited article doesn’t provide any data adequate to reach a conclusion, as Sage Rat seems to think, but just for fun, I’ll show some arithmetic. Let’s suppose “white” and “not black” are treated as synonyms, though they’re not. If Blacks are 13% of the population, to get a 21x rate, you need a (21*.13) / (1 - .13 + 21*.13) ~= 76% portion.
HOWEVER, among the 15-19 cohort, Blacks are not 13%; they’re 16% (source: U.S. Census).
Now you need a (21*.16) / (1 - .16 + 21*.16) ~= 80% portion to get the 21x rate. However it seems unlikely that ProPublica would have been ignorant enough to avoid the 15-19 figure; indeed that’s how Census breaks down its subtotals.
Anyway to focus on one statistic and wonder if it’s misleading is to miss the forest for a tree.
[ul][li] Due to poverty and other social problems, Blacks are more likely to come in contact with crime.[/li][li] Due to stereotyping, Blacks are more likely to be harassed or “Terry-stopped” by cops.[/li][li] Due to stereotyping, once harassed, a Black is more likely to be arrested than a White.[/li][li] Blacks are given less favorable plea bargains.[/li][li] Blacks are more likely to be convicted.[/li][li] Blacks receive longer sentences.[/li][/ul]
Quibbling about a percentage here or there in this sad chain is to miss the point. Blacks are victimized by various inequalities in the system. They are understandably resentful. That resentment can result in disobeying police orders that seem unreasonable, and so on.
When I see all the support here at SDMB for cops who smash windows when disobeyed, worried that a seatbelt violator isn’t humiliated enough; and all the victim-blaming, I am annoyed. Many of those who say Black victims should obey police orders without question, would themselves be belligerent if police broke into their house by mistake.
Racism is still a big problem in U.S.A. Police are off the hook. I’m sure the most offensive police are a small minority but why aren’t those offenders dismissed when caught?
And thus the cycle continues. This is how problems like this, whatever the root cause, can persist for generations.
By being disproportionately suspicious of young black males, police officers who feel and act this way are contributing to distrust of police from that demographic, and increasing the risk to themselves in the long run. If the police act differently (and negatively) towards you because of your race, as you describe, it’s entirely reasonable to feel negatively inclined towards the police, and to fear that a police officer might be more likely to use force because of your race.
I assume you agree this is a major problem, and harmful to the police in the long run?
Is there an underlying assumption being made that the ratio races being killed by police should track with the general population demographic mix?
It’s in the title of the thread. You’d assume it’s a rather important part of the discussion.
If this is how you interpret that thread, I would say your view is impacted by your preconceptions.
The police just need to shoot more white people…wait.
Yes, it’s a problem, and even more harmful to black males than to the police.
By committing a disproportionate amount of violent crime, young black males are contributing to distrust of themselves, both by the police and by every other demographic who objects to violent crime, and increasing the risk to themselves in the long run. If young black males act differently (and negatively) towards the rest of society, it’s entirely reasonable to feel negatively inclined towards younhg black males, and to fear that a young black male might be more likely to commit a violent crime against either the police, or anybody else.
I assume you agree this is a major problem, and harmful to young black males in the long run?
Regards,
Shodan
No. If the figure were 8x (the raw arrest rate differential), it would be easy to attribute it to that. It wasn’t 8x, it was 21x. It sounds like you wouldn’t care if it were 121x or 1000x.
Wrong again. The title of the thread is “Why are young black men in the US 21X more likely to be killed by police than young white men?” Instead of “why”, attention focused on whether the 21x figure is correct. I showed that it was … and went on to emphasize that focusing on the exact number was beside the point.
Strike Three! My “preconception” is that Dopers are by and large intelligent, informed and compassionate. I was surprised and disconcerted by all the victim-blaming in some of the BBQ Pit threads.
Here’s the problem with this post. You assigned collective responsibility to a demographic – young black males – for their disparate crime statistics. Most young black males have nothing to do with this and contribute to this problem in no way. Most young black males are entirely innocent of any wrongdoing. Most young black males act perfectly appropriately and respectfully to the rest of society.
I am assigning collective responsibility to police (while recognizing that most police officers are fine individuals). This is entirely different. Police are not a “demographic” – it’s an occupation. They are trained and organized. They have formal, organized leadership with an organizational culture. This organizational culture is the critical difference – there is no organization culture for young black males (or any other ethnic/age demographic). And this organizational culture is the problem. This organizational culture, I believe, tolerates and even encourages young black males to be treated differently than young white males for their race and race alone. And this statistic demonstrates this.
So your comparison is complete and utter bullshit, and shame on you for making it. Most black males are doing what they’re supposed to be doing, and you (and anyone else) have nothing to complain about the behavior of most young black males. While most police officers are also behaving properly, this organizational culture that disproportionately harms young black males still exists. Police officers and supporters of the police still have a duty to change this organizational culture. Young black males, on the other hand, have a duty to treat people with respect – and most of them do this.
The majority of young black males is not the problem. The majority of police officers, similarly, is not the problem. The organizational culture of many or most American police forces are the problem, in my opinion. There is no analogous organizational culture for young black males to criticize.
Do you honestly interpret the question of what the underlying assumptions are as a lack of caring about a disproportionate demographic rate of being killed by police? It sounds more like poorly constructed satire of a political commercial than something you would really believe. I grant you may actually believe this but I’d be hard pressed to figure out what could possibly be interpreted the way you have.
Yes, someone focused on one part of the thread title and you focused on another. Oh the horror. The “why” aspect is clearly debatable. The 21X aspect is more empirical in nature. There are underlying data, re-calculations that can be performed, etc. It’s an easier target to first determine if that figure is accurate and informative in the way it was calculated. So yes, there is a focus on one aspect of a story and that happens to be different than the one you want to focus on. It’s not like two ideas can’t be discussed along side each other.
I didn’t know this was a contest. Let’s see what you said:
(my bold)
This didn’t happen. You may think it did, but it didn’t.
Thus my proposal. Anyone who works for me directly or indirectly–whether it’s a black male or a police officer–needs to do their part to stop this vicious circle. If it’s a black male who works for me, and he commits violent crime, I and my fellow bosses should fire him. If it’s a police officer who works for me (or rather for my government), and she disproportionately hassles black people, she should likewise be fired.
Imminently fair, I’d say.
Ok, the 21x is correct. Let’s put the statistic into perspective. The death rate they show is 31/1M over 3 years. That’s 10 deaths per million over 1 year, or 1/100,000.
According to the CDC, black males 15-24 are the victims of homicide at a rate of 74/100,000 (in 2011). Statistically, over 90% of homicides of black men are perpetrated by black men. This gives us a homicide rate of about 67/100,000, for black on black violence.
Therefore, statistically, a young black man is 67x more likely to be killed by another black man, than he is to be killed by a cop and 74x more likely to be killed by a person of unspecified race than he is to be killed by a cop.
Let’s examine white males 15-24. Their rate of homicide is 3.9/100,000. rate of cop death is 1.5/M over 3 years, or 0.5/M over 1yr or 0.05/100,000. 3.9/0.05 = 78x as likely to be killed by a person of unspecified race than he is to be killed by a cop.
Young black men are 21x as likely to be killed by a cop and 19x (74/3.9)as likely to be killed by another person who is not in Law Enforcement.
No, it isn’t. Most police officers have nothing to do with racism, and do not contribute to the problem in any way. Most police officers are entirely innocent of any racism. Most police act perfectly appropriately and respectfully to the rest of society.
Therefore either it is wrong to assign collective responsibility to cops as well as young black men, or it is OK to do so for both.
Irrelevant. Either a group suffers the consequence of the actions of a few of its members, or it doesn’t.
No it isn’t, since it is not responsible for the perception that young black males are disproportionately involved in violent crime - that perception comes from the fact that they are.
No it doesn’t. Young black males are not treated differently for their race alone, and this statistic does not demonstrate. They are treated differently because they act differently.
Not interested in what you think is shameful, because it’s dumb.
Regards,
Shodan
They act 21X differently? Bullshit. How can you say such bullshit?
It’s okay to criticize the organizational culture of the police, because it encourages and tolerates disparate treatment based on race and race alone.
If you don’t believe this is the case, then when did it stop? Do you think police in the 1920s treated black people differently due to race? How about the 50s? 60s? When did it stop? What evidence do you have that it ever stopped?
I wonder if that is due to racism.
What’s the point of all this? It has nothing to do with the OP.
Whether it is or not, it has nothing to do with why young black men are killed by police at a 21 times greater rate than young white men.
Um… let us return to the OP.
Crime statistics. I’m providing the crime statistics that you claim (with no support whatsoever) are far smaller than the disparity in cop killings.
They are not far smaller, the rate of cop killings is not the slightest bit out of sorts with the overall rate of homicide among young black males. A rate which is horrifyingly large all on its own.
In addition, the rate of cop killings is miniscule in relation to the overall rate of homicide, and miniscule in relation to the rate at which black men kill young black men.