# Why can't Taiwan be independent? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 29, 2021, 6:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158 "2021-05-29T06:29:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2021, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/41 "2021-06-23T16:23:19Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > _shrug_ No worse than U.S. claims to Puerto Rico. Much worse, as the vast majority of PR people want to be part of the USA, as either a state or territory. Polls have shown only a tiny % want total independence. However, most residents of Taiwan do not want to be part of Communist China. Pretty much- 'what the people want"- is the only legitimate 'claim". ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2021, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/42 "2021-06-23T16:25:34Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > CKS sent his son CCK to be educated in Moscow. Maybe this was playing both sides, but CKS did, at times, ally with communists. So did we, during WW2. For about the same reasons. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2021, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/43 "2021-06-23T21:58:16Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > > CKS sent his son CCK to be educated in Moscow. Maybe this was playing both sides, but CKS did, at times, ally with communists. > > So did we, during WW2. For about the same reasons. What about before? FDR’s sons, who survived infancy, went to Groton. CKS’s one natural son went to the Communist University of the Toilers of the East. This seems to me rather [typical communism](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_ideology_of_the_Kuomintang): > [@](#): > > Even after Chiang turned on the Soviet Union and massacred the communists, he still continued anti-capitalist activities and promoting revolutionary thought, accusing the merchants of being reactionaries and counter-revolutionaries. > > The United States consulate and other westerners in Shanghai was concerned about the approach of “Red General” Chiang as his army was seizing control in the Northern Expedition. > > Chiang also confronted and dominated the merchants of Shanghai in 1927, seizing loans from them, with the threats of death or exile. Rich merchants, industrialists, and entrepreneurs were arrested by Chiang, who accused them of being “counterrevolutionary”, and Chiang held them until they gave money to the Kuomintang. One reason today’s Taiwan isn’t allowed official independence is that it would show a country, alleged to be culturally Chinese, doing well without communism. P.S. I’m not sure, but maybe the objection to seeing Chiang and Xi as both being real communists is that there is a true, idealistic, communism apart from them. If so, it is irrelevant to the thread. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2021, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/44 "2021-06-23T22:06:54Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > One reason today’s Taiwan isn’t allowed official independence is that it would show a country, alleged to be culturally Chinese, doing well without communism. I doubt that is a real factor. Singapore is mostly Chinese and un-communist, and China has never objected. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2021, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/45 "2021-06-24T04:07:16Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > CKS sent his son CCK to be educated in Moscow. Maybe this was playing both sides, but CKS did, at times, ally with communists. As for today’s standards, Xi says he’s a communist while being tolerant of capitalism. Have you not heard of sending your children as hostages? Time honored tradition in many countries including China. This was part of the so-called alliance with the CCP engineered by the Young Marshall of Manchuria (see Xi’an Incident). Read nothing beyond expediency and real politik into CKS son Chiang Ching-Kuo being sent to Russia. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2021, 4:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/46 "2021-06-24T04:14:51Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > P.S. I’m not sure, but maybe the objection to seeing Chiang and Xi as both being real communists is that there is a true, idealistic, communism apart from them. If so, it is irrelevant to the thread. CKS was from a wealthy family, a fascist warlord, married into the very rarified upper crust of wealthy China, and looted the country for personal gain. Didn’t have a communist bone in his body. You’re missing something very basic by continuing to try make arguments that somehow CKS was a faux commie if not a real one. Generalissimo CKS was the complete antithesis of a communist, and never in his entire life exhibited anything that suggested otherwise. I’m not trying to bust balls but am completely perplexed how anyone could possibly think CKS was any gradient of communist. The “alliance” with the CCP was pretty much on paper only, and KMT spent that decade avoiding outright battle with the Japanese to conserve resources for the coming civil war that CKS and Mao knew would break out as soon as the Japanese were defeated. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2021, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/47 "2021-06-26T13:48:21Z")
Japanese Defense Minister has the following to say [this week](https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/4232240): > [@](#): > > Japanese Defense Minister Kishi Nobuo said Thursday (June 24) that Taiwan’s security is directly linked to that of Japan’s. > > “The peace and stability of Taiwan are directly connected to Japan, and we are closely monitoring ties between China and Taiwan as well as Chinese military activity,” Kishi said in an interview with [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-24/japan-sees-china-taiwan-friction-as-threat-to-its-security). > > He added that China’s military activities in the Taiwan Strait have increased cross-strait tensions and become a threat to Japan. “As China strengthens its military, its balance with Taiwan is tipping heavily to the Chinese side…” Japan is now having its two _Izumo_-class helicopter destroyer carriers modified in order to be able to handle the [short take-off and vertical-landing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/STOVL) (STOVL) F-35B. While each can only handle “12 or more” of these advanced fighters, having two more small platforms isn’t a bad thing. Japan has two smaller [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyūga-class\_helicopter\_destroyers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hy%C5%ABga-class_helicopter_destroyers) which have not be upgraded yet, but are also capable of being retrofitted to allow F-35s. With Japan as a potential ally of Taiwan in a conflict, this adds complexity to the equation for China. There is the [Quadrilateral Security Dialogue](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quadrilateral_Security_Dialogue), and informal discussion between Australia, Japan, the US, and India on that the heck to do with China and it’s aggressiveness in the region. One commentator said that all of this is basically the question of how to secure oil shipments from the Middle East. Japan gets 89% of its oil from there while China depends on the region for 41%. China can shut off Japan’s oil if it takes Taiwan, but getting into a shooting war with India puts an enemy between right on the shipping lanes. The US sees China as possibly wanting to have capacity to invade Taiwan within six years, according to [a report](https://news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027-sees-no-near-term-intent-to-invade) from a few days ago. > [@](#): > > China wants the ability to invade and hold Taiwan within the next six years but might not intend to do so in the near term, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley told Congress today. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 26, 2021, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/48 "2021-06-26T16:48:08Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > You’ll find outside of Mandarin dominant Taipei, that Taiwanese is the linga franca. Another fun story, in 1989 I went to Kenting, in the southern tip of Taiwan. and I tried to talk to some farmers in Mandarin and they really didn’t understand a word. I switched to my very basic Japanese, and they just lit up, broad smiles and then excitedly tried to speak Japanese with me and quickly overwhelmed my limited ability. > > Certainly through the 1980’s, it was not difficult to find people that only spoke Taiwanese (outside of Taipei). Not sure these days as it’s been a long time since I’ve been to Taiwan beyond a business trip to Taipei. I think that you would find a lot has changed. It resembles Japan in that in the early 80s, the older people couldn’t speak “standard Japanese.” I just simply couldn’t communicate with any older person outside of Tokyo. People in their 50s and younger in the 1980s would have gone through school after the war and would have used standard Japanese in school so I had no problem with them. More than anything TV changed the picture, with people exposed to more and more standard Japanese, the younger generations have started getting more fluent with it. I asked my daughter, who is just finishing elementary school. She thinks that of the class of 25 students, only about five use Taiwanese as their primary language at home. Then maybe five to 10 kids can’t speak any Taiwanese and the rest are in between the two extremes. We live outside of Taipei. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2021, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/49 "2021-06-27T16:21:33Z")
If Japan did intervene in a war, its most valuable contribution would be submarines, probably not carriers. Taiwan has only 2 modern submarines but Japan could have a dozen or more operating in Taiwanese and nearby waters. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2021, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/50 "2021-06-27T19:40:28Z")
Isn’t Taiwan within F-15 range of Japan? If so, I’d think their air force would be their biggest contribution. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2021, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/51 "2021-06-27T19:53:16Z")
The nearest Japanese airbase to Taiwan would be Okinawa, and that is still 700+ kilometers. They’d either have to have a lot of refueling support, or the Eagles could only loiter briefly in the Taiwan area before having to quickly return to base due to low fuel. The rest of Japan proper is around 1,400 kilometers away from Taiwan. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 27, 2021, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/52 "2021-06-27T20:47:01Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The rest of Japan proper is around 1,400 kilometers away from Taiwan. That’s well within airstrike range. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2021, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/53 "2021-06-28T01:05:06Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > That’s well within airstrike range. And within Chinese missile range as well. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2021, 8:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/54 "2021-06-28T08:54:43Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > And within Chinese missile range as well. Oh, absolutely. If Japan gets involved, its home islands will come under attack; that’s a given. Only America gets to fight wars with impunity. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2021, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/55 "2021-06-28T12:12:42Z")
Despite having lived in Japan for more than 20 years, and having had this discussion a number of times with various Japanese, the question of what would Japan do if Taiwan is attacked is something that the average Japanese isn’t able to answer. With the US bases on Okinawa, many US commentators assume that they would be attacked, but that would also draw Japan into the war. Of course, China isn’t going to want the US have have bases this close without attacking them, so the calculations are complex. While I was living in Japan (I moved here 10 years ago) it was still thought that the US could adequately defend Taiwan without Japan having to actually commit itself. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 28, 2021, 4:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/56 "2021-06-28T16:58:46Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > While I was living in Japan (I moved here 10 years ago) it was still thought that the US could adequately defend Taiwan without Japan having to actually commit itself. That’s most likely still the case, and perhaps always will be. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be very different from every war America’s fought in almost a century; it would be a war in which the onus would be on China to successfully execute a complex amphibious invasion. An island is very difficult to invade; the only way to get there is by sea or air, and therefore if the island can successfully shoot down enough aircraft transports or sink enough ships, the invasion cannot succeed. In such a situation, the advantage would be heavily on America’s side; it could potentially turn the tide of the war by putting only a few thousand lives at risk (that is, the crews of submarines, for instance.) Even a relatively small number of American SSNs could have an outsized influence on the outcome of the war. This would be like the Falklands War, but on a bigger scale (British SSNs had enormous impact on the war’s outcome and were well-nigh impossible for the Argentines to sink.) ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [June 30, 2021, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/57 "2021-06-30T03:27:39Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > An island is very difficult to invade; the only way to get there is by sea or air, and therefore if the island can successfully shoot down enough aircraft transports or sink enough ships, the invasion cannot succeed. [An article](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2021/03/08/taiwan-aims-to-sink-half-of-a-chinese-invasion-fleet-it-could-take-years-to-buy-enough-missiles/?sh=46345d6b1aa0) earlier this year that Taiwan is looking into increase their antiship capability. > [@](#): > > # Taiwan Aims To Sink Half Of A Chinese Invasion Fleet—It Could Take Years To Buy Enough Missiles > > o defeat a Chinese invasion fleet, the Taiwanese military would need to sink half of the attacking ships. But sinking potentially hundreds of vessels would require an arsenal of no fewer than 1,200 anti-ship missiles. > > (snipped) > > Deputy Defense Minister Zhang Zheping last spring said Taiwan’s current stockpile of anti-ship missiles would leave afloat too many Chinese ships to prevent a takeover by Beijing. So in May, Taipei announced it would spend $2.4 billion buying ground-launched, 100-mile-range Harpoon missiles from U.S. defense firm Boeing. > > The 400 Harpoons, fired by 100 truck-mounted quad-launchers supported by 25 mobile radars, would grow the Taiwanese anti-ship missile arsenal by half to 1,200 rounds. Locally-made Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III missiles and older Harpoon models would make up the balance. > > Assuming each missile has between a 50% and 70% chance of hitting its target—and also assuming Chinese bombardment destroys or suppresses a significant number of launchers—those 1,200 missiles should be sufficient to sink hundreds of Chinese ships and stop an invasion attempt cold, if Taipei’s calculations are sound. ---
**Author:** ![cannonkuo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b9bd4f/32.png) [@cannonkuo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cannonkuo)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2021, 3:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/58 "2021-07-05T03:33:33Z")
Whether or not Beijing will actually invade Taiwan within the next decade is in limbo, but one thing is for sure, which is a big chunk of Taiwan’s national budget will go to buying weapons from the US… ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2021, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/59 "2021-07-05T03:57:53Z")
Since they are counting on the US to come to the rescue, doesn’t that make sense? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [July 5, 2021, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158/60 "2021-07-05T04:04:22Z")
> [@cannonkuo](#): > > Whether or not Beijing will actually invade Taiwan within the next decade is in limbo, but one thing is for sure, which is a big chunk of Taiwan’s national budget will go to buying weapons from the US… Not sure if this is meant as a dig or something, but - yes, that’s what many allies do. South Korea does it. Japan does it. Israel does it. Poland does it. Australia does it. Saudi Arabia does it. The UAE does it. It’s usually much better to buy something like warplanes than make them yourself. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-cant-taiwan-be-independent/943158.md?page=4)