# Why did the price of japanese tuna plunge 96% in one year? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [April 5, 2015, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929 "2015-04-05T23:33:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![doubled](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/51bf81/32.png) [@doubled](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/doubled)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2015, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/1 "2015-04-05T23:33:48Z")
This article talks about how the prestigous “first tuna of the year” in Japan sold for 396 thousand in 2011, 700 thousand in 2012, 1.7 million in 2013, and then a “mere” 70 thousand in 2014. > **[Sushinomics: How Bluefin Tuna Became a Million-Dollar Fish](https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/01/sushinomics-how-bluefin-tuna-became-a-million-dollar-fish/282826/)** > > Once used for cat food, the endangered fish is now one of the most prized delicacies in the world. The article briefly speculates on why the price plunged 96% in one year, but doesn’t do any real research. Remarkably, it spends more time talking about the million dollar price in 2013 rather than the dramatic fall-off in 2014. There don’t appear to have been any new laws passed, tuna has continued to get rarer, demand has continued to increase, so why did the price plunge 96% in one year? Anybody got any insight? ---
**Author:** ![The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e79b87/32.png) [@The\_Joker\_and\_the\_Thief](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Joker_and_the_Thief)\ **Post date:** [April 5, 2015, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/2 "2015-04-05T23:44:41Z")
The very first tuna of the year is a luxury good. People buy luxury goods to signal high social status to their peers. As such, the price paid has no meaningful relationship to the quality of the product (but the products tend to be high quality, so as to discourage copycats and counterfeits). Because the price is determined by external social factors and not the utility of the product, it can fluctuate rapidly. You would expect the price of a fashionable piece of clothing to change value rapidly, but the price of something with intrinsic utility, like a wrench, to be relatively constant over many years. The first tuna of the year is like fashionable clothing, but taken to an extreme. Because the first tuna of the year is an outlier, its value will fluctuate even more than would otherwise be expected. In addition, there are likely very few people who are interested in this sort of product. The price differential could be cause by something as simple as someone getting sick and missing the auction, or because the expected high price dissuaded many would-be buyers from entering the market. ---
**Author:** ![usedtobe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ec9cab/32.png) [@usedtobe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/usedtobe)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2015, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/3 "2015-04-06T00:04:16Z")
IOW: It’s a pissing contest. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2015, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/4 "2015-04-06T00:06:29Z")
This year the first tuna of the year fetched [only $37500](http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2015/01/05/bluefin-tuna-sold-for-37500-at-tsukijis-first-auction-of-the-year/). At that, it probably represents a loss. It’s a status symbol. The buyer probably isn’t going to recoup the cost selling it as sushi. The inflated prices for the 4 or 5 years prior to 2014 look to be due to a bidding war between 2 rival groups looking to win a status symbol if that post is to be believed. The historical trend looks to be relatively lower prices with an extreme jump just for those years. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2015, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/5 "2015-04-06T00:15:14Z")
> [@doubled](#): > > Why did the price of japanese tuna plunge 96% in one year? I didn’t know that! You mean tuna took a dive? ---
**Author:** ![dofe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7ba0ec/32.png) [@dofe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dofe)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2015, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/6 "2015-04-06T00:28:16Z")
Just to be clear, the price of tuna did not drop this year – it’s just the price of the first tuna sold at auction this year that was considerably lower than previous years. The article mentions that the same buyer, Kiyoshi Kimura, the winning bidder for this year’s first tuna, also won the winning bid in 2013. So the plunge in price simply means that whoever was bidding up the price against him in the previous years has simply decided not to bid as much. As others have mentioned, the price of the first tuna of the year has little to do with actual economics. From the article: > [@](#): > > There are several issues in play at the first tuna auction of the year, and only some of them relate to the tuna fishery. Among the patrons of the Tsukiji fish auction, it is considered an honor to buy the first bluefin of the new years, and bidding wars reflect this fight for status. The massive international headlines that follow the purchase of such a fish is free advertising for the winner. As many auction-goers know, landing a high, early win is a way of marking your territory and letting your competitors know that you have the bankroll to push them out of a bidding war. ---
**Author:** ![Your\_Great\_Darsh\_Face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ac8455/32.png) [@Your\_Great\_Darsh\_Face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Your_Great_Darsh_Face)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2015, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/7 "2015-04-06T14:56:18Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > I didn’t know that! You mean tuna took a dive? At that price I hope it was line-caught. …Or are accusations of trolling not permitted in this forum? ---
**Author:** ![Leo\_Bloom](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leo_bloom/32/10377_2.png) [@Leo\_Bloom](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leo_Bloom)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2015, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/8 "2015-04-06T15:10:21Z")
Beaujolais so _nouveau_ it’s from next year often goes for crazy prices, although I don’t know if it’s that much of a differential. What’s worse though, is that super raw Beaujolais tastes like crap. ---
**Author:** ![Ethilrist](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ethilrist/32/4604_2.png) [@Ethilrist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ethilrist)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2015, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-did-the-price-of-japanese-tuna-plunge-96-in-one-year/716929/9 "2015-04-06T15:54:23Z")
> [@dofe](#): > > Just to be clear, the price of tuna did not drop this year – it’s just the price of the first tuna sold at auction this year that was considerably lower than previous years. Yeah, my first thought was “maybe they’re afraid it’s radioactive…” I guess that still could apply, but it’s not likely.