Why did the VW CEO Step Down?

[Diceman]

@WordMan

Exactly. I have been keeping an eye out for further discussion of this aspect of the situation, now that Lutz framed it that way.

• What is the expected costs associated with fixing/addressing the existing cars?
• What are the costs associated with criminal and civil suits and penalties internationally
• Based on those amounts, what will VW’s needs be for capital to remain operating as those costs flow through their Income Statements, and how will owners like Lower Saxony in Germany help them through that period?

If they are looking at one or more years of hits equaling tens of billions of Euros, it could be complex for a long time. I don’t see Germany allowing their crown jewel car company to go bust, but VW may need to be propped up for a while.

I think the situation is still too fluid to make anything more than WAG’s about cost. Still…

We do know that VW has set aside $7 Billion to cover expected recall costs. (Which to me suggests that the solution involves more than just a quick re-programming of the cars’ software. They may have to figure out how to retrofit AdBlue systems into their cars). The EPA fines could theoretically be as much as $18 Billion, altho it probably won’t go that high. It’s still likely to be a couple of billion, however (my WAG) due to the blatant cheating aspect.
This is aside from investigations by the Justice Department and the states’ attorneys general. This will likely go along similar lines as the Toyota & GM scandals. Again, the fine will probably end up in the range of a couple billion dollars.
Turning to civil court, there are going to be class-action lawsuits from both diesel owners (arguing loss of resale value, and outright fraud for VW making promises they knew their cars couldn’t keep) and VW’s own dealer network (who are getting screwed because they’re sitting on a ton of cars that are now unsellable).

…and that’s just the US. They can count on the same thing happening in Canada. And this is all before we even get back to Europe.

Honestly, the more I think about this, the more I wonder if it might end up making more sense for VW to walk away from the North American market. Order their US & Canadian operations to file for liquidation, and let the vultures fight over the carcass while they focus on Europe & China.
I was reading something about lawmakers in Tennessee worrying about exactly this. There’s a VW plant in Chattanooga, and Tenneessee spent a lot of money to land that factory.

[Northern_Piper]

Except a multi-national can’t just walk away to avoid civil liability.

If VW is found civilly liable in Canadian and US courts in class actions by people who bought VWs, and by the VW dealers, and there are monetary judgments issued, those judgments then can be enforced against VW’s assets in Germany, using the German courts.