# Why do 1st round picks fail? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [August 9, 2016, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264 "2016-08-09T17:51:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 8:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/21 "2016-08-09T20:37:41Z")
> [@Stana\_Claus](#): > > I believe another part of the equation, at least for football, is that the high draft choices are often (if not always) forced into immediate playing time without the benefit of a couple of years of development behind an experienced mentor. After all - that’s why they were drafted so high (and paid a lot more money) to begin with. This may not be such a big thing for running backs and a few other positions, but I think it certainly factors into the situation for quarterbacks. It’s very much a sink or swim proposition, and without the supporting cast as mentioned above, they are much more likely to sink than not. A generation ago, the conventional wisdom in the NFL was that you did _not_ start a first-round QB pick in his rookie season (and perhaps not in his second season, either), unless you were truly desperate. The thinking was that QBs needed that time to learn the pro game – and, in that era, the position often required them to call their own plays, so there may have been something to that. That thinking has obviously changed now, even though NFL offenses are far more complex today. It’s not uncommon to see a first-round QB “eased into the role” by not starting until sometime partway through his rookie season, but it’s fairly rare for first-round QBs to ride the bench the way they used to. ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/22 "2016-08-09T20:42:37Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:. Cool stats! Mind dropping the source so I can dig into them a bit more? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/23 "2016-08-09T20:50:31Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters: Fascinating numbers. Looking in particular at the top three rounds, OL, LB, and TE are clearly the positions with the best “hit rates”, and that QB and RB are among the hardest positions for finding (and drafting) consistent starters. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [August 9, 2016, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/24 "2016-08-09T21:20:49Z")
> [@yellowjacketcoder](#): > > Cool stats! Mind dropping the source so I can dig into them a bit more? Here’s the page I used, but the ultimate source is Pro-Football Reference: > **[What stats tells us about the draft by round](https://www.arrowheadpride.com/2015/2/20/8072877/what-the-statistics-tell-us-about-the-draft-by-round)** > > The best times to draft certain positions based on the last 10 years. ---
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/25 "2016-08-10T02:23:06Z")
NHL drafts kids at 18 and they have a lot of 1st round picks that don’t make it , around 50%. BTW Heath Shuler only served 3 terms, he left Congress in 2013 to be a lobbyist. NC dems tried to get him to run for US senate but so far he’s said no to running statewide. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/26 "2016-08-10T03:11:58Z")
I’ve heard a lot of baseball players talk about how you can be the best player in Little League, high school, college and the minor leagues, then when you get to the majors _everyone_ is as good as you. Some people, as talented as they are, simply can’t handle the stepped up level of competition. Bob Uecker, in a serious moment, pointed out that even someone as mediocre as he was still the best player at some point when he was a kid. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/27 "2016-08-10T04:01:57Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > I’ve heard a lot of baseball players talk about how you can be the best player in Little League, high school, college and the minor leagues, then when you get to the majors _everyone_ is as good as you. > > Some people, as talented as they are, simply can’t handle the stepped up level of competition. > > **Bob Uecker, in a serious moment, pointed out that even someone as mediocre as he was still the best player at some point when he was a kid.** Unless you’re Joe Garagiola. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 4:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/28 "2016-08-10T04:15:37Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > There are a ton of guys who were “stars” since they were little kids based on raw physical prowess alone. They were simply bigger and stronger than the other kids, all the way through to high school. Most of them are exposed by the time they hit college when suddenly everyone else is just as big, strong, and fast as they are. > > Some guys have enough raw talent they can still skate by in college, or even dominate in many circumstances (go to a small school, play against sub-par competition, etc.), but once they get to the professional level, hard work and dedication are now required, and if they don’t have that, they will fail. Raw power can get you through high school but I think you need skill to be a star in college. The problem is that the skill a lot of college stars have is exploiting the weaknesses in opposing teams. It’s a genuine and valuable skill at that level. But when they enter the NFL, they’re playing at a much higher level - they’re no longer going to encounter the kinds of weaknesses they used to be able to exploit. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/29 "2016-08-10T04:49:58Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > I’ve heard a lot of baseball players talk about how you can be the best player in Little League, high school, college and the minor leagues, then when you get to the majors _everyone_ is as good as you. Yup. The 25th man on the roster, of the worst team in MLB (whoever that happens to be this year) was still probably one of the best athletes in the history of his grade school and high school. When _everyone_ around him (on his team, in his league) is in the 99.9th-plus percentile, even someone who is incredibly talented compared to “normal” people, or even athletic people, can look like a schlub. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/30 "2016-08-10T05:02:51Z")
> [@DCnDC](#): > > It’s _possible_ of course, but if one has talent and wants to play college/pro sports, the scouts will find them. There’s still the odd guy like Jose Altuve, who was cut from his tryout at the Astros camp in Venezuela (too small) and had to go back and try again the next year. ---
**Author:** ![standingwave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@standingwave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/standingwave)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 7:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/31 "2016-08-10T07:11:25Z")
Speaking of Ryan Leaf, here’s a pretty candid interview published just last month on how what he thinks led to his failure, hitting bottom and recovering. [http://www.foremagazine.com/a-new-leaf-how-prison-and-then-golf-saved-former-nfl-player-ryan-leaf/](http://www.foremagazine.com/a-new-leaf-how-prison-and-then-golf-saved-former-nfl-player-ryan-leaf/) Addressing the OP’s question, Leaf says: > [@](#): > > “I was battling the best defenses every Sunday, and then the media all week long,” he says. “Instead of looking at my failure as an opportunity to get better, I looked at it like I wasn’t good enough. Or I blamed other people. I had a lot of negative self-talk.” > [@](#): > > “I was so narcissistic,” he says of his time in the NFL. “I thought everything revolved around me. All the guys in that locker room are just doing their job, trying to put food on the table for their families. I know now that they were probably looking at me wondering why I was taking it all for granted. I know now that it is a privilege, not a right, to play in that league.” > [@](#): > > “The money, the fame, it changed it all for me,” he says. “I’m not saying it was easy in high school or college, but I just went out and did it and relied somewhat on my natural ability. I worked hard, but I didn’t have to have this insane focused intensity that is needed in the NFL.” ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/32 "2016-08-10T08:03:31Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > Yup. The 25th man on the roster, of the worst team in MLB (whoever that happens to be this year) was still probably one of the best athletes in the history of his grade school and high school. When _everyone_ around him (on his team, in his league) is in the 99.9th-plus percentile, even someone who is incredibly talented compared to “normal” people, or even athletic people, can look like a schlub. The numbers I’ve heard is it’s more like the 99.99th percentile. Out of every hundred players who are good enough to have a spot on a team in high school, only one will get a spot on a team at a Division I college. And out of every hundred players who are good enough to have a spot on a team at a Division I college, only one will get a spot on a professional team. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/33 "2016-08-10T10:03:58Z")
Ryan Leaf is an interesting case. Just tons of talent and his attitude pissed it all away. Then there’s Trent Dilfer, another highly touted rookie who was a disaster at first, but then put together a mediocre career that included a Super Bowl win. Seems like a lot of guys just need a change of scenery. To get back to Mark Sanchez, the Broncos aren’t dumb. They obviously signed him because they think with all the other great players around him he can win them a lot of games. Reminds me a little of how the Raiders resurrected Jim Plunkett. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/34 "2016-08-10T11:57:00Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > why wasn’t todd van poppel’s 99 mph fastball good enough to make him the next roger clemens? He was the very definition of sure thing. > [@adaher](#): > > that’s not a very satisfying explanation though for van poppel. How can you call a guy “cant’ miss”, a “once in a generation prospect” when he had nothing but an arm? TINSTAAP. Vbulletin doesn’t like 100% all caps. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/35 "2016-08-10T13:27:36Z")
Sometimes the first round pick never should have been a first round pick to begin with (looking at the “go away, Tim Tebow” thread). There’s a case where I don’t think any team, other than Denver apparently, was remotely considering him as a 1st round pick. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 1:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/36 "2016-08-10T13:35:37Z")
He worked out just fine though. If they hadn’t signed Peyton Manning, they were going to start Tebow the following year. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/37 "2016-08-10T14:21:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > He worked out just fine though. He did? He’s 29 years old and has thrown 361 NFL passes. That’s a trainwreck of a 1st round draft pick, regardless of how many playoff games his defense won. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/38 "2016-08-10T14:35:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > He worked out just fine though. If they hadn’t signed Peyton Manning, they were going to start Tebow the following year. He played 16 games in his career with a completion percentage of 47.9%. Say what you want about him, I think he’s a good guy and maybe could have been given another shot somewhere, but that is not what I would call “working out just fine” for a first round QB. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 10, 2016, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/39 "2016-08-10T14:45:26Z")
He also had a TD to play ratio that was up there with elite QBs. He didn’t “just” win, he also “just” scored touchdowns. He’d throw two passes at a receiver’s feet from a few yards out and then hit a 60-yard bomb. He also had an insane 4th quarter QB rating: 110 late into that magic season: > **[How to explain Tim Tebow? He has a QB rating of 110.2 after the third quarter](https://www.denverpost.com/2011/12/11/how-to-explain-tim-tebow-he-has-a-qb-rating-of-110-2-after-the-third-quarter/)** > > How to explain Tim Tebow? He has a QB rating of 110.2 after the third quarter There was clearly skill there to justify taking him as a project, and he was better than Kyle Orton. But Orton is someone you can insert into a modern NFL offense. Tebow can only excel if you abandon all those fancy offensive schemes and run an offense centered around his unique skillset. Josh McDaniels was egoless enough to do that. Most offensive coordinators want the personnel to match their favored schemes, rather than adjusting their schemes to their personnel. Which is why many of the same QBs that are well below mediocre keep getting signed. ---
**Author:** ![Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f475e1/32.png) [@Jimmy\_Chitwood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jimmy_Chitwood)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2016, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264/40 "2016-08-11T18:00:59Z")
Well, with that clarification, then, the answer becomes obvious: the coaches are all too stupid and don’t want to win, so they get rid of good players in favor of bad ones. Except Josh McDaniels, who is egoless, despite his incredibly bad reputation as an ego monster who can’t be a head coach because of his ego. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-1st-round-picks-fail/762264.md?page=3)