A generation ago, the conventional wisdom in the NFL was that you did not start a first-round QB pick in his rookie season (and perhaps not in his second season, either), unless you were truly desperate. The thinking was that QBs needed that time to learn the pro game – and, in that era, the position often required them to call their own plays, so there may have been something to that.
That thinking has obviously changed now, even though NFL offenses are far more complex today. It’s not uncommon to see a first-round QB “eased into the role” by not starting until sometime partway through his rookie season, but it’s fairly rare for first-round QBs to ride the bench the way they used to.
Fascinating numbers. Looking in particular at the top three rounds, OL, LB, and TE are clearly the positions with the best “hit rates”, and that QB and RB are among the hardest positions for finding (and drafting) consistent starters.
NHL drafts kids at 18 and they have a lot of 1st round picks that don’t make it , around 50%.
BTW Heath Shuler only served 3 terms, he left Congress in 2013 to be a lobbyist. NC dems tried to get him to run for US senate but so far he’s said no to running statewide.
I’ve heard a lot of baseball players talk about how you can be the best player in Little League, high school, college and the minor leagues, then when you get to the majors everyone is as good as you.
Some people, as talented as they are, simply can’t handle the stepped up level of competition.
Bob Uecker, in a serious moment, pointed out that even someone as mediocre as he was still the best player at some point when he was a kid.
Raw power can get you through high school but I think you need skill to be a star in college. The problem is that the skill a lot of college stars have is exploiting the weaknesses in opposing teams. It’s a genuine and valuable skill at that level. But when they enter the NFL, they’re playing at a much higher level - they’re no longer going to encounter the kinds of weaknesses they used to be able to exploit.
Yup. The 25th man on the roster, of the worst team in MLB (whoever that happens to be this year) was still probably one of the best athletes in the history of his grade school and high school. When everyone around him (on his team, in his league) is in the 99.9th-plus percentile, even someone who is incredibly talented compared to “normal” people, or even athletic people, can look like a schlub.
There’s still the odd guy like Jose Altuve, who was cut from his tryout at the Astros camp in Venezuela (too small) and had to go back and try again the next year.
Speaking of Ryan Leaf, here’s a pretty candid interview published just last month on how what he thinks led to his failure, hitting bottom and recovering.
The numbers I’ve heard is it’s more like the 99.99th percentile. Out of every hundred players who are good enough to have a spot on a team in high school, only one will get a spot on a team at a Division I college. And out of every hundred players who are good enough to have a spot on a team at a Division I college, only one will get a spot on a professional team.
Ryan Leaf is an interesting case. Just tons of talent and his attitude pissed it all away.
Then there’s Trent Dilfer, another highly touted rookie who was a disaster at first, but then put together a mediocre career that included a Super Bowl win.
Seems like a lot of guys just need a change of scenery. To get back to Mark Sanchez, the Broncos aren’t dumb. They obviously signed him because they think with all the other great players around him he can win them a lot of games. Reminds me a little of how the Raiders resurrected Jim Plunkett.
Sometimes the first round pick never should have been a first round pick to begin with (looking at the “go away, Tim Tebow” thread). There’s a case where I don’t think any team, other than Denver apparently, was remotely considering him as a 1st round pick.
He did? He’s 29 years old and has thrown 361 NFL passes. That’s a trainwreck of a 1st round draft pick, regardless of how many playoff games his defense won.
He played 16 games in his career with a completion percentage of 47.9%. Say what you want about him, I think he’s a good guy and maybe could have been given another shot somewhere, but that is not what I would call “working out just fine” for a first round QB.
He also had a TD to play ratio that was up there with elite QBs. He didn’t “just” win, he also “just” scored touchdowns. He’d throw two passes at a receiver’s feet from a few yards out and then hit a 60-yard bomb. He also had an insane 4th quarter QB rating: 110 late into that magic season:
There was clearly skill there to justify taking him as a project, and he was better than Kyle Orton. But Orton is someone you can insert into a modern NFL offense. Tebow can only excel if you abandon all those fancy offensive schemes and run an offense centered around his unique skillset. Josh McDaniels was egoless enough to do that. Most offensive coordinators want the personnel to match their favored schemes, rather than adjusting their schemes to their personnel. Which is why many of the same QBs that are well below mediocre keep getting signed.
Well, with that clarification, then, the answer becomes obvious: the coaches are all too stupid and don’t want to win, so they get rid of good players in favor of bad ones.
Except Josh McDaniels, who is egoless, despite his incredibly bad reputation as an ego monster who can’t be a head coach because of his ego.
