# Why do Republicans want to end the corona virus restrictions? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 19, 2020, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128 "2020-04-19T16:17:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/201 "2020-05-05T19:26:08Z")
> [@Kearsen1](#): > > 1500 in a population as big as the US? No, it would be noise, not data. > > If you polled 150,000, from across the country with different demographics maybe. But the point was, they were testing people , precisely because they thought they had contact with a positive test. That isn’t random. > > Another reason to not believe the data inherently available in the right now. The CDC has roughly halved the deaths caused by Covid19 in the US since their initial number. > > Representative? Sure with a margin of error (of 50%) You clearly do not understand sampling theory. [Here](https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm) is a simple sample size calculator. To get a 5% margin of error at a 95% confidence level for a population of 300 million, you only need 384 samples. A 99% confidence level requires 666. A 2% confidence interval at 95% only requires 2400. Many people think sample size rises linearly with population. That’s not true. Reduce the population to 30 million and you get the same sample size. Getting a sample that isn’t biased in some way is much harder and more important. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/202 "2020-05-05T19:33:58Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > You clearly do not understand sampling theory. > [Here](https://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm) is a simple sample size calculator. To get a 5% margin of error at a 95% confidence level for a population of 300 million, you only need 384 samples. A 99% confidence level requires 666. A 2% confidence interval at 95% only requires 2400. > Many people think sample size rises linearly with population. That’s not true. Reduce the population to 30 million and you get the same sample size. > Getting a sample that isn’t biased in some way is much harder and more important. ``` Because the virus has hot spots, dead spots and light spots would this make unbiased sampling more difficult. Would the extra difficulty mean more sampling was needed?? ``` ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/203 "2020-05-05T19:34:51Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Because the virus has hot spots, dead spots and light spots would this make unbiased sampling more difficult. Would the extra difficulty mean more sampling was needed?? Again, tossing more uncertainty into the mix is not friendly to your position. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 7:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/204 "2020-05-05T19:35:43Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > Here are the reasons: > > - Many conservatives and Republican fundamentally view liberals and Democrats as evil, corrupt, social justice warrioring, communists who want to take from the successful to give to lazy and incompetent criminals and destroy America. Something like this one. I don’t think it’s so ideological; it’s just “Something bad is happening…I should be angry at _those people_ again”. I think the conservative right has struggled to think of where our rage is supposed to be directed. It obviously can’t be at the federal government. You can’t call it a hoax because it’s clearly not. Antifa? Erm…The bad guy is the one making you stay at home! They’re not letting meat factories produce delicious meat! Stay angry, and that might…help…I guess? ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/205 "2020-05-05T19:45:38Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Again, tossing more uncertainty into the mix is not friendly to your position. It has nothing to do with having a position. The position should be flexible as more info come in. My position is just based on what I see now. There does seem to be some pretty solid patterns developing. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/206 "2020-05-05T19:48:29Z")
> [@Kearsen1](#): > > 1500 in a population as big as the US? No, it would be noise, not data. > > If you polled 150,000, from across the country with different demographics maybe. But the point was, they were testing people , precisely because they thought they had contact with a positive test. That isn’t random. > > Another reason to not believe the data inherently available in the right now. The CDC has roughly halved the deaths caused by Covid19 in the US since their initial number. > > Representative? Sure with a margin of error (of 50%) Generally, a 1,500 sample is going to give you an error of +/- 2% in the population of the US. Here is the first [article](https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/) I pulled on sample size. So to take the South Korea numbers at face value (not quite a random sample but if anything biased to having a higher percentage than the general population) and they have about .1% +/- 1% of their population infected so their number of infected could range from 1.1-0.02% or 564K people infected down to 10,800. The their death rate is probably between 0.04% and 2%. That isn’t the narrowest of ranges but it’s got a decent amount of confidence around it. So to revisit my initial point after actually doing the math (though only a single day not the series that could narrow the range) > [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > What are the consequences of reopening and dropping all restrictions? Worst case scenario about 1 in every 1000 Americans would die. Best case scenario about 1 in every 3,000 Americans would die. Worst-case scenario is 2 in every 100 die and best-case scenario is 3 in 6,000 die. His best case actually wasn’t far off but the worst case doesn’t match the data. As I said earlier due to the ROK not having random outbreaks I think they are catching most of the people in their testing and so the worst case number is much more likely than the best case number. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/207 "2020-05-05T19:53:46Z")
Another issue I have is when they talk about flattening the curve. I have no idea what the capacity of hospitals in Ca has for example but lets suppose we say we would like to get 60% through this in one year. We project that California has the potential for a 1000 per million death rate and 10 times that many will wind up in the hospital for 30 days. That would come out to about 20,000 people in the hospital at any given time. Could California handle 20,000 patients?? 10,000??. What is our capacity? What ever that is shouldn’t we strive to stay open enough to at least be reasonably close to those numbers? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/208 "2020-05-05T20:05:55Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > It has nothing to do with having a position. The position should be flexible as more info come in. My position is just based on what I see now. There does seem to be some pretty solid patterns developing. What I have seen is that after the uncertainty, better data is telling the modelers that opening the economy with few masks, little to no contact tracing or little testing will lead to more deaths, once again, it is more likely that the increase in deaths will shoot down the confidence from the people, that confidence that is needed to open the economy more will not be there when less restrictions are demanded. > **[Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen (Published 2020)](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/04/us/coronavirus-live-updates.html)** > > An internal Trump administration report expects about 200,000 daily cases by June. The White House bars coronavirus task force officials from testifying to Congress without approval. > [@](#): > > As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of coronavirus cases and deaths over the next several weeks. The daily death toll will reach about 3,000 on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, a 70 percent increase from the current number of about 1,750. > > The projections, based on government modeling pulled together by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases a day currently. > > The numbers underscore a sobering reality: The United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks to try slowing the spread of the virus, but reopening the economy will make matters worse. > > “There remains a large number of counties whose burden continues to grow,” the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warned. > > As the administration privately predicted a sharp increase in deaths, a public model that has been frequently cited by the White House revised its own estimates, doubling its projected death toll. > > The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington is now estimating that there will be nearly 135,000 deaths in the United States through the beginning of August — more than double what it forecast on April 17, when it estimated 60,308 deaths by Aug. 4. (The country has already had more than 68,000 deaths.) > > The institute wrote that the revisions reflected “rising mobility in most U.S. states as well as the easing of social distancing measures expected in 31 states by May 11, indicating that growing contacts among people will promote transmission of the coronavirus.” > > The projections confirm the primary fear of public health experts: that a reopening of the economy will put the nation back where it was in mid-March, when cases were rising so rapidly in some parts of the country that patients were dying on gurneys in hospital hallways. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 8:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/209 "2020-05-05T20:13:23Z")
I think many of us see this as a natural disaster like an earthquake or giant storm. The only difference is that it is slower and we have time to react. Will our fear prevent us from acting rationally or will it simply force us to keep pushing it back while absorbing more damages until we can no longer hold it back at which time it will take off on its own anyway. Now that they have us scared shitless how can they unscare us so we can go back to living at at least some semblance of normalcy. ---
**Author:** ![Oredigger77](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/oredigger77/32/3181_2.png) [@Oredigger77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oredigger77)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/210 "2020-05-05T20:29:35Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Another issue I have is when they talk about flattening the curve. I have no idea what the capacity of hospitals in Ca has for example but lets suppose we say we would like to get 60% through this in one year. We project that California has the potential for a 1000 per million death rate and 10 times that many will wind up in the hospital for 30 days. That would come out to about 20,000 people in the hospital at any given time. Could California handle 20,000 patients?? 10,000??. What is our capacity? What ever that is shouldn’t we strive to stay open enough to at least be reasonably close to those numbers? It [appears](https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california) that the State of California has 27K hospital beds and ~2,000 ICU beds. What percentage is in normal use by non-COVID patients I’m not certain but I’m sure you could dig up utilization rates. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/211 "2020-05-05T20:34:51Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Another issue I have is when they talk about flattening the curve. I have no idea what the capacity of hospitals in Ca has for example but lets suppose we say we would like to get 60% through this in one year. We project that California has the potential for a 1000 per million death rate and 10 times that many will wind up in the hospital for 30 days. That would come out to about 20,000 people in the hospital at any given time. Could California handle 20,000 patients?? 10,000??. What is our capacity? What ever that is shouldn’t we strive to stay open enough to at least be reasonably close to those numbers? [IHME](https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/california), the tool mentioned in the site referenced by GIGOBuster, has a listing for ICU beds available. For California it is listed as just under 2000. Total hospital beds around 27,000. I’ve been down this path on this board and it was pointed out that trying to maintain a certain percentage occupancy rate of hospital beds is a dangerous game. It wouldn’t take much to overwhelm the system when there are only 2000 to start. And that is in all of California. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 8:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/212 "2020-05-05T20:43:40Z")
From what I can find as of march 20th we had 88,000 beds with many more being added on so by now we should have close to 100,000 if you figure in areas not normally used for hospital beds but can be utilized. Not sure how many the medical professionals could handle but it looks like 20,000 beds could be doable in a pinch. As for being a dangerous game, it is certainly dangerous but it is not playing a game. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/213 "2020-05-05T21:08:08Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Again, tossing more uncertainty into the mix is not friendly to your position. Surely there is a geographic aspect. If one did all the testing in Claredon, AR you would have a very different result than if your data come from NY, NY. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 9:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/214 "2020-05-05T21:45:19Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > From what I can find as of march 20th we had 88,000 beds with many more being added on so by now we should have close to 100,000 if you figure in areas not normally used for hospital beds but can be utilized. Not sure how many the medical professionals could handle but it looks like 20,000 beds could be doable in a pinch. As for being a dangerous game, it is certainly dangerous but it is not playing a game. Indeed, it is not just beds, but enough medicines, medical equipment, besides the usual shortages of nurses and doctors reported even before the pandemic. ---
**Author:** ![cmosdes](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a587f6/32.png) [@cmosdes](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmosdes)\ **Post date:** [May 5, 2020, 11:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/215 "2020-05-05T23:40:15Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > From what I can find as of march 20th we had 88,000 beds with many more being added on so by now we should have close to 100,000 if you figure in areas not normally used for hospital beds but can be utilized. Not sure how many the medical professionals could handle but it looks like 20,000 beds could be doable in a pinch. As for being a dangerous game, it is certainly dangerous but it is not playing a game. I don’t care what you want to call it. There isn’t going to be a lot certainty to it. You are likely to get a lot of pushback around here for those types of opinions. ---
**Author:** ![HoneyBadgerDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honeybadgerdc/32/1033_2.png) [@HoneyBadgerDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoneyBadgerDC)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 3:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/216 "2020-05-06T03:45:15Z")
Something I am curious about that maybe only a Dr. could answer. If a person is nearing the end of their life and they catch the flu and die will they be labeled a flu death? If 20 patients were in a nursing home and nearing the end of their life and the flu finished them off would they be labeled as flu victims? I know the corona virus it is being used pretty liberally. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/217 "2020-05-06T04:57:49Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Something I am curious about that maybe only a Dr. could answer. If a person is nearing the end of their life and they catch the flu and die will they be labeled a flu death? If 20 patients were in a nursing home and nearing the end of their life and the flu finished them off would they be labeled as flu victims? Is there a pathologist or coroner in the house? > [@](#): > > I know the corona virus it is being used pretty liberally. You “know” - from where? If anything, COVID isn’t blamed enough; search news on [covid deaths undercounted](https://news.google.com/search?q=covid%20deaths%20undercounted) for many reports. The US population isn’t being tested (because political folly) and all corpses aren’t tested or autopsied so we don’t really know who dies of COVID directly, or indirectly as from secondary infections, or from lack of medical care. When [excess death rates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_displacement) for the COVID era are calculated, we’ll have a better picture of its impact. Till then, listen to immunologists and epidemiologists, not to self-serving political hacks. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 7:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/218 "2020-05-06T07:19:50Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Because the virus has hot spots, dead spots and light spots would this make unbiased sampling more difficult. Would the extra difficulty mean more sampling was needed?? No, better sampling. The classic example is the [Literary Digest fiasco](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Literary_Digest) in 1936. The did a poll for each election, and in 36 predicted that Landon would win. They had 2.2 million responses, way more than needed. Way, way more. But their sample was based on subscribers, car owners and telephone owners, all of whom were richer than average and thus more likely to vote Republican. Especially against FDR. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 7:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/219 "2020-05-06T07:27:14Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > Another issue I have is when they talk about flattening the curve. I have no idea what the capacity of hospitals in Ca has for example but lets suppose we say we would like to get 60% through this in one year. We project that California has the potential for a 1000 per million death rate and 10 times that many will wind up in the hospital for 30 days. That would come out to about 20,000 people in the hospital at any given time. Could California handle 20,000 patients?? 10,000??. What is our capacity? What ever that is shouldn’t we strive to stay open enough to at least be reasonably close to those numbers? Besides the bed question, I don’t think it is possible to tune the opening to the number of cases. Geographically, perhaps. If you open one restaurant you have to open all of them, or else give that one restaurant a big advantage. Do you think anyone can tune the reopening to not potentially overwhelm the system? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 6, 2020, 7:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128/220 "2020-05-06T07:33:33Z")
> [@HoneyBadgerDC](#): > > I think many of us see this as a natural disaster like an earthquake or giant storm. The only difference is that it is slower and we have time to react. Will our fear prevent us from acting rationally or will it simply force us to keep pushing it back while absorbing more damages until we can no longer hold it back at which time it will take off on its own anyway. Now that they have us scared shitless how can they unscare us so we can go back to living at at least some semblance of normalcy. I agree it is basically a natural disaster. People in hurricane territory board up their windows. Only idiots would object that it it hurts their constitutional right to look outside. I lived in tornado country once. I never heard an alert, but I knew where the basement was. If tornadoes came one after another you’d stay in the damn cellar way longer than you would want to. That’s more or less what we’re doing. And thanks to people around here obeying the rules, I don’t feel scared shitless when I go to the grocery once a week, even though I’m over 65. If I was in one of the states that are opening before they should, I’d be a lot more worried. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-republicans-want-to-end-the-corona-virus-restrictions/852128.md?page=12)