They have a motive, even if the motive is not something evil. Politicians have incentives to create drama, especially when it is almost sure to make them look good. They get plenty of free publicity and get to look all presidential on a daily basis. They make dire predictions based on bad models and then when they beat those predictions they come out looking like heroes. I wish they would keep people with motives out of public health issues.
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
gasp!
BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
I think you’re missing my point. I’m asking you why “the country as a whole” is a relevant issue. New York doesn’t need to care about Oklahoma’s numbers when New York is deciding whether or not to reopen.
And my further point is that when you start excluding places like New York, you reduce “We shouldn’t reopen” to “we shouldn’t reopen, if you ignore all the places that should.” As I clarified earlier, when I said “we” are over the hump, I was referring to Virginia. Other states should be viewed separately.
Here’s what I’m basing this on.
Look at the yellow line on the bar chart. It’s the 7-day moving average. It’s been flat for a week. The peak day was two weeks ago. You know how people were screaming about how others don’t understand exponential growth and how fast it is? Well, the right side of a bell curve drops just as fast as the left side goes up. I think some people, perhaps here, are underestimating how long two weeks is in terms of cases dropping off.
Now if in a week, that yellow line is still flat or starts rising, I’ll change my mind, but from the looks of it today, and the data available to me today, it looks like VA is over the hump and can plan to reopen in two weeks or so.
This is the sort of disinformation the kremlin is trying to spread- make us not trust our health orgs, etc. And it’s not true.
Do you think that just looking at the death per millions we have been experiencing might be the best current indicator (even though not accurate) of when we are over the hump?
It’s not about brain power it’s about the quality of the data that we have to base our decisions on.
Let’s take one confounding factor: that there is an incubation period before (some) people have onset of symptoms. That alone means that the conclusion we can draw from hospitalizations alone becomes equivocal: because a scenario where the virus has only recently entered a high population area might look the same as a scenario where the virus has been successfully contained.
And there are many more confounding factors.
Or, to put it another way: cite for a scientist who believes we can make confident predictions of releasing the lockdown based only on the hospitalization rates?
OK, but IMHO the reason the US is handling this outbreak comparatively poorly is because a pandemic response needs more coordination than this. The municipal governments *have *done a good job, and that’s not enough.
So sure, many of the specifics of when and how a state opens up can and should be handled by local governments. But at the same time we should have guidance from the top, informed by teams of epidemiologists and other scientists on what exactly is safe, and what indicators we’re looking for.
That’s why I am personally hesitant to just suggest we all separately open up gradually: in the absence of a top-level battle plan, such arbitrary decisions may be very wrong in some cases and will prolong the crisis for everyone.
Another big falsehood by the press and the Democrats. South Korea and China as being showcased and compared to America as models for how this virus should have been managed with the shutdowns and quarantines. I think South Korea is something like 5 deaths per million and China a bit less. No country in South Asia showing death rates higher than 3 per million and many of them are below 1 per million deaths. When it is suggested that there is a reason for what appears to be resistance or immunity to suffering the affects of this disease it is squashed. They make no suggestion that New York, Europe and the U.S. might just possibly have other factors involved that would be easily identifiable causing us much higher Death rates. Instead they choose to continue to make comparisons to the way they managed and to how the U.S. was managed.
You’ve yet to present a single thing that backs this notion that “‘asians’ don’t get it as bad because they’re asians”.
Meanwhile the actual science, IIUC, says Europe and North America got hit with a more virulent stain of the disease.
CMC fnord!
But we’d know what yesterday’s numbers were, and the day before that. We’d know if we had fewer or more cases than previously. I don’t understand how it’s confounding.
How about the fact that scientists urged the lockdown in the first place specifically to reduce hospitalizations? That’s what flattening the curve is all about - hospitalizations. It was never to reduce the overall number of cases.
I don’t disagree, but we don’t have a competent federal government and we aren’t going to suddenly get one. I don’t see how that desire for top-down leadership changes anything.
But even if we did have top-down leadership, we’d still have separate openings at different times and degrees. That’s already the plan. The only question is when.
In terms of deaths in Asia there are many factors that we know to be significant before we need to make it about race:
- In China it was Chinese New Year. This is a time where people stock up on food and stay with their families for a week. Shops, offices and schools close.
So, this made implementing a lockdown (comparatively) simpler: the government basically just extended the CNY. - And yeah all the hardcore shit the chinese government did in Hubei specifically. We might not like it but of course it factors in.
- Mask use is something very normal; many shops stock them and many people already owned them, so populations suited up immediately.
- South korea went all out on testing. That thing that even in this thread some people are suggesting the US doesn’t need.
Well a different strain. It’s still very much being debated and analysed whether it is a more contagious or virulent strain.
I never said Asians don’t get it because they are Asians because Asian Americans seem to be getting it in the same frequency as everyone else. I did suggest that for some unknown reason South Asia has incredibly low rates based on the “worldameter” Daily reports.
That’s really interesting. I’ve been using this chart to check the numbers in my state as well as the surrounding states. Its the one that comes up in the google search page.
https://www.google.com/search?q=coronavirus+by+state&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&hl=en-us&client=safari
I really don’t know what’s going on here, but their numbers for Virginia in the past week are different. REALLY different. For example, on May 1st, the VA Health Department chart you linked to shows 598 confirmed new cases and 22 probable. The chart I’ve been using shows 1055 new cases.
All the surrounding days are similarly different, it’s not just a matter of a case being counted on Tuesday in one place and Wednesday on the other.
Again, I really don’t know what going on, but this other chart from a credible source shows Virginia cases on the rise, not a sharp rise but a definite rise.
Nowhere you mention where evidence of what you claim here comes from. Not very convincing to claim that it is a falsehood.
Look at the " Worldameter" I thought everyone in this thread was working off of that.
Read it again, I was complaining about the Worldameter. Just that your falsehood claim does not follow from it, it is more likely that masks, testing and contact tracing are the reason rather than being unknown or because of something special with Asians.
Missed the edit, I meant to say that I was ***not ***complaining about the Worldameter.
I fully acknowledge that social distancing and masks will slow the spread but when you look at how conspicuously low that portion of the world is and how consistent it is, it tends to draw your attention. The virus was widespread throughout the region but never really seemed to take hold.
That’s like having your cake and eating it too. Again, not very convincing that it was a falsehood.
I strongly disagree with you. The numbers in that region warrant attention, there is a fair assumption that something is taking place in that region causing lower death rates. Just as New York's extremely high death per million deserves attention and the reasons need to be made public.