# Why do some people think Utah may be in play?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [August 12, 2016, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583 "2016-08-12T18:11:23Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 3
### Author:  [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/41 "2016-08-16T16:40:06Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#):
>
> Trump himself has said his campaign is having a “tremendous problem in Utah”: [http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/12/politics/clinton-trump-electoral-map-utah-georgia/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/12/politics/clinton-trump-electoral-map-utah-georgia/index.html)
I saw that, and I was hoping Trump would go off on one of his rants by "explaining " that the problems are because Mormons aren’t _real_ Christians. But he managed to avoid that pratfall.
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### Author:  [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2016, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/42 "2016-08-16T16:54:00Z")
> [@YogSothoth](#):
>
> Well they both start with “M”
And tend to live in places that are “dry” in more ways than one.
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### Author:  [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2016, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/43 "2016-08-16T17:10:16Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#):
>
> I saw that, and I was hoping Trump would go off on one of his rants by "explaining " that the problems are because Mormons aren’t _real_ Christians. But he managed to avoid that pratfall.
The question is, how long can he avoid it? He has months of constant speeches to get through.
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### Author:  [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2016, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/44 "2016-08-16T17:13:28Z")
Utah would be nice, but Texas would be nicer. Hillary is closing in on Trump in Texas.
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### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2016, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/45 "2016-08-16T17:52:14Z")
Cite? Last poll I saw had Trump up by 8 points.
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2016, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/46 "2016-08-16T17:57:43Z")
PPP has Trump +6 taken 8/12-8/14
[http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas\_trump\_vs\_clinton\_vs\_johnson\_vs\_stein-6104.html](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/tx/texas_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-6104.html)
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### Author:  [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2016, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/47 "2016-08-16T18:08:20Z")
> [@JohnT](#):
>
> Cite? Last poll I saw had Trump up by 8 points.
[Six points.](http://heavy.com/news/2016/08/2016-election-august-texas-poll-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-ahead-behind-six-points-turn-blue-rigged/) But note:
> [@](#):
>
> This is a surprisingly tight race for Texas, one of the most Republican states in the country where Mitt Romney won by a margin of nearly 16 percent. In a September 2012 poll, Romney was beating Obama by 19 points.
>
> Trump’s lead over Clinton is down from another recent Texas poll that had him up by seven points.
Sure, it’s a stretch. But how many gaffes before that 6 points disappears?
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### Author:  [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)
#### Post date: [August 16, 2016, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/48 "2016-08-16T19:16:34Z")
Trump’s missteps have
\*put even reliably Republican states into question. Trump acknowledged last week that his campaign is “having a tremendous problem in Utah,” where Mitt Romney won more than 70% of the vote in 2012.
“I don’t know a Trump supporter in Utah. And I know a lot of Republicans and I know a lot of conservatives,” said Robert Alan Goldberg, professor of history at the University of Utah and author of “Barry Goldwater.”
He said the Beehive State’s conservative tilt means it will likely back Trump in the fall – however reluctantly. But the notion that it’s even in play points to Trump’s electoral weakness, Goldberg said.\*
From here, about halfway down: [http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/16/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-landslide-loss/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/16/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-landslide-loss/index.html)
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/49 "2016-10-13T05:16:54Z")
Time to bump this.
Okay it’s [just one poll but](http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664606/Poll-Trump-falls-into-tie-with-Clinton-among-Utah-voters.html?pg=all) … well well well.
> [@](#):
>
> Poll: Trump falls into tie with Clinton among Utah voters … The poll shows Clinton and Trump tied at 26 percent, McMullin with 22 percent and Libertarian Gary Johnson getting 14 percent if the election were held today. Y2 Analytics surveyed 500 likely Utah voters over landlines and cellphones Oct. 10-11 The poll has a plus or minus 4.4 percent margin of error. …
Not only may be in play but could be in play for McMullin to get on board with! We could realistically see some more Trump support bleeding to him and some Johnson support switching over there as well.
If this poll is accurate (admittedly a big if) it’s 12% undecided and more choosing third parties than one of the two majors. Now _that’s_ uncertainty!
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### Author:  [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/50 "2016-10-13T05:44:17Z")
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> He’s just not doing great in Utah compared to past elections. He’s still ahead though. And anyone who’s saying “might go to Clinton or at least not Trump” can be safely disregarded as ignoring reality.
I don’t know about [that,](http://thehill.com/media/300566-utahs-largest-newspaper-endorses-clinton) 3 months later to the day of the above statement here in mid-October.
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### Author:  [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 7:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/51 "2016-10-13T07:50:44Z")
> [@Little\_Pig](#):
>
> I don’t know about [that,](http://thehill.com/media/300566-utahs-largest-newspaper-endorses-clinton) 3 months later to the day of the above statement here in mid-October.
Do you read your own cites or just the headlines when you grab this off google?
The headline looks interesting, _Utah’s largest newspaper endorses Clinton_, but the _second_ sentence tells everything you need to know about this click-bait.
> [@Your cite](#):
>
> The largest newspaper in Utah has endorsed Hillary Clinton for president, the latest sign of trouble for Donald Trump in the deep-red state.
>
> The Salt Lake Tribune on Wednesday backed Clinton, marking the third straight election its endorsed a Democrat for president.
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/52 "2016-10-13T12:34:09Z")
> [@Little\_Pig](#):
>
> I don’t know about [that,](http://thehill.com/media/300566-utahs-largest-newspaper-endorses-clinton) 3 months later to the day of the above statement here in mid-October.
I’m not going to eat crow over one poll. Frankly, even though he’s a native son I find it very hard to believe McMullen is polling that high and doubt it’ll stay there for election day even if true. I’ll be happy to be wrong though.
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### Author:  [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 1:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/53 "2016-10-13T13:25:55Z")
> [@DSeid](#):
>
> Okay it’s [just one poll but](http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664606/Poll-Trump-falls-into-tie-with-Clinton-among-Utah-voters.html?pg=all) … well well well.
>
> Not only may be in play but could be in play for McMullin to get on board with! We could realistically see some more Trump support bleeding to him and some Johnson support switching over there as well.
>
> If this poll is accurate (admittedly a big if) it’s 12% undecided and more choosing third parties than one of the two majors. Now _that’s_ uncertainty!
As I posted:
> [@Clinton v Trump - The Stretch Run Thread](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/clinton-v-trump-the-stretch-run-thread/767277/1399):
>
> The LDS church-owned [Deseret News](http://www.deseretnews.com/article/865664336/In-our-opinion-Donald-Trump-should-resign-his-candidacy.html) believes Trump should resign in candidacy. They pointedly declined to endorse Clinton.
>
> The Desert News hasn’t weighed in on a presidential election in 80 years.
>
> It’s possible that this could actually have some influence on the race by encouraging more Mormons to not vote for Trump. Although the Deseret News is carefully claiming that this was their decision and not that of “the Church,” it will be seen that way by many of the members.
>
> As I’ve posted, this could affect both Utah and Arizona. In addition, about 5% of Alaskans are nominally Mormons. Probably half or so of those are active, so that’s 2.5% to 3%.
I think that Utah could very well go for someone other than Trump this year. McMullin or Clinton could take it. I’m not there now so I don’t get a good feel for what is happening, but there is nothing but the sound of crickets on the Facebook posts of my ultra-conservative, Clinton-hating Mormon relatives. Very different from previous elections.
About 5% of Arizona residents are Mormon, with the same activity rate, so 2.5% to 3% of the voters could be active Mormons. If they believe the LDS church has said to not vote for Trump, that could turn it a little blue.
More about my previous post:
The “Trib,” Utah’s largest newspaper was founded as an anti-Mormon outlet more than a century ago. Back when I was growing up in Salt Lake (pre-Atari, post dinosaurs), the majority of the Mormons took the LDS-owned Deseret News and the Non-Mormons as well as some apostates(!) who wanted some real reporting.
That the Trib supports a Democrat is not news. It was recently purchased by Paul Huntsman the brother of Jon, the former presidential candidate.
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 2:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/54 "2016-10-13T14:04:11Z")
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> I’m not going to eat crow over one poll. Frankly, even though he’s a native son I find it very hard to believe McMullen is polling that high and doubt it’ll stay there for election day even if true. I’ll be happy to be wrong though.
Oh as stated it is just one poll. But I do not think that the point is that McMullen is polling that high so much as the desire to not vote Trump among Utahns who would otherwise be reliably GOP presidential voters is that high. Johnson is less appealing to them as a vote for “other” than is McMullen, for many reasons.
My guess is that come election day they just stay home.
Turnout in Utah is [already](http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/nov/6/historically-low-voter-turnout-in-utah/) notoriously [low](http://utahdatapoints.com/2012/01/purging-utahs-voter-rolls-will-not-boost-turnout/). In 2006, 2008, and 2010 they already ranked 45th, 47th, and 47th, in terms of turnout % of eligible voters and in 2012 had their lowest turnout ever.
Interestingly if you go deeper into [the actual poll results](https://www.dropbox.com/s/1p9dm1e1w184c3s/UT%20Statewide%20Presidential%20Polling%20October%202016%20Memo%20-%20Y2.pdf?dl=0) and limit to answers to which candidate they are definitely voting for, the results were:
Clinton 21
Trump 18
McMullen 10
Johnson 5
The rest of the support was “could change mind” or “if had to choose”. Interpret how you will. I interpret it as lotso uncertainty.
Oh, according to that poll 51% think that Trump should drop out including 46% of Republicans.
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### Author:  [@raspberry\_hunter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/raspberry_hunter)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/55 "2016-10-13T16:00:09Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#):
>
> As I posted:I think that Utah could very well go for someone other than Trump this year. McMullin or Clinton could take it. I’m not there now so I don’t get a good feel for what is happening, but there is nothing but the sound of crickets on the Facebook posts of my ultra-conservative, Clinton-hating Mormon relatives. Very different from previous elections.
>
> About 5% of Arizona residents are Mormon, with the same activity rate, so 2.5% to 3% of the voters could be active Mormons. If they believe the LDS church has said to not vote for Trump, that could turn it a little blue.
>
> More about my previous post:
>
> The “Trib,” Utah’s largest newspaper was founded as an anti-Mormon outlet more than a century ago. Back when I was growing up in Salt Lake (pre-Atari, post dinosaurs), the majority of the Mormons took the LDS-owned Deseret News and the Non-Mormons as well as some apostates(!) who wanted some real reporting.
>
> That the Trib supports a Democrat is not news. It was recently purchased by Paul Huntsman the brother of Jon, the former presidential candidate.
Active Mormon agreeing with all of this. I mean, I’m in California, and I don’t know what’s going on in Utah either, but we had a lot of activity and active campaigning for Mitt Romney in 2012 in our ward, and this year, I’m mostly hearing undertones of people being very frustrated with Trump.
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### Author:  [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 4:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/56 "2016-10-13T16:02:56Z")
[538](http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/utah/#now) is now showing that the probability of Trump winning Utah has dropped precipitously from 98% to 68% in the now-cast.
He’s still the likely winner but there’s a month of new sleaze scandals to go.
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/57 "2016-10-13T20:10:41Z")
Trump is still at 84% polls only. A new Monmouth poll is out with McLovin at 20% so I guess this jump is real, which I will eat crow over, since I didn’t think he’d be a blip even in Utah.
> **[Trump has Narrow Lead But Clinton and McMullin are Hot on His Heels |...](https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_UT_101316/)**
>
> West Long Branch, NJ - The Republican presidential nominee is ahead in the race for Utah's electoral votes - which wouldn't be a headline except for
We’ll see if he suffers the same drastic under-performing most third parties face once the levers are actually pulled.
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### Author:  [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/58 "2016-10-13T21:27:33Z")
It’s in play enough that Clinton opened a campaign office in Salt Lake City. Sure, she’s probably got some extra cash to play with at this point, but they think there’s at least a chance.
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### Author:  [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)
#### Post date: [October 13, 2016, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/59 "2016-10-13T23:39:16Z")
Opening a campaign office is good politics even if you know you can’t win. It’s a way of showing the entire country (including the swing states) that you support all Americans, and it can lay the groundwork for a swing some time in the future.
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### Author:  [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)
#### Post date: [October 14, 2016, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/60 "2016-10-14T14:50:56Z")
Here’s CNN on the anguish of Utah Republicans in the last month of the campaign: [http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-utah-mormons-morality-dilemma-2016/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-utah-mormons-morality-dilemma-2016/index.html)
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