# Why do some people think Utah may be in play?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [August 12, 2016, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583 "2016-08-12T18:11:23Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 4
### Author:  [@TheSeaOtter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheSeaOtter)
#### Post date: [October 14, 2016, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/61 "2016-10-14T14:57:48Z")
> [@Chronos](#):
>
> Opening a campaign office is good politics even if you know you can’t win. It’s a way of showing the entire country (including the swing states) that you support all Americans, and it can lay the groundwork for a swing some time in the future.
Also, it forces your opponent to expend resources playing defense in states that should be ‘safe’ for them. If you have more money than they do (and the Clinton campaign definitely does), it’s worth it for that reason alone.
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### Author:  [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)
#### Post date: [October 14, 2016, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/62 "2016-10-14T15:54:04Z")
> [@TheSeaOtter](#):
>
> Also, it forces your opponent to expend resources playing defense in states that should be ‘safe’ for them. If you have more money than they do (and the Clinton campaign definitely does), it’s worth it for that reason alone.
The office in Salt Lake isn’t large, only one paid staffer and volunteers.
I don’t know but I doubt that they have bought any air time. They have released an internet-only ad by a group, Mormons for Clinton, a fee-good ad with quotes from her book “It Takes a Village.”
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### Author:  [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)
#### Post date: [October 14, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/63 "2016-10-14T16:28:39Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#):
>
> … I don’t know but I doubt that they have bought any air time. They have released an internet-only ad by a group, Mormons for Clinton, a fee-good ad with quotes from her book “It Takes a Village.”
[The “Mormons for Hillary” web ad](http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/clinton-camp-launches-mormons-for-hillary-ad-featuring-utah-gop-politicians/article/2604227?custom_click=rss). It’s pretty good and should be adapted for non-Mormons too.
I doubt air time in Utah is very expensive. If that ad does not get some in the last week or so I will be surprised. But my understanding is that you are correct: no television buys so far.
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### Author:  [@Hooleehootoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hooleehootoo)
#### Post date: [October 14, 2016, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/64 "2016-10-14T19:46:56Z")
(I am not a professional speech/script writer)
McMullan, Gary Johnson, and Mitt Romney on platform.
Romney: Citizens of the United States! I endorse Evan McMullan for President…[remarks on what a great President he would make]… Citizens of Utah! There is a special mission, an extra undertaking that I here today charge you with. Some of you will find it a difficult task… Nevertheless, I ask that you hear Evan out. He has discussed this with me and his ideas have my full support…[…] Before I introduce Gov. Johnson, I want to say that he also has an announcement and that it also has my full support…
Johnson: [Evan McMullan would be a great President…] [I also would be a great President]. I ask all my supporters in Utah to support Evan McMullan, in what he proposes today and in the future. [somewhat-hard-to-understand (it is Johnson, after all!) argument about the possibility of one of the Third Party candidates actually winning]. [concluding remarks and introduce McMullan]
McMullan: People of Utah, you make me proud! It is clear from [insert evidence here, polls, etc.] that you reject the degeneracy and idiocy of Trumpism! [long riff of Trump bashing… Lots of material!] When faced with the False Idol of Binary Choice, you have chosen me, your native son. I am confident that under a ranked voting system, Donald Trump would be at the bottom of almost all of Utah ballots. What is a ranked voting system, you ask? [Here McMullan gives a brief explanation of [voting theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voting_system) for those (huge majority) that have only heard of first-past-the-post ] In a ranked voting system, supporters of Gov. Johnson would be able to indicate that their second-favorite choice is me, and my supporters would be able to do reciprocally.
Where would Hillary Clinton be in such a ranking? [again start bashing Trump, showing he is the worst … (the worst! Sad!)…Conclusion is that Hillary must rank above Trump… Do all this without mentioning Clinton’s policies on pretty much anything…] I believe the citizens of this country can and will realize that I am the obvious choice over the odious Trump, and the flawed Hillary Clinton. But… [But! Give some excusing reason why millions of people might not switch from the things they had been planning to do] in case no candidate has a majority of electoral votes, the election will be decided by the House of Representatives [give brief description of 12th Amendment procedure]. I charge every one of my voters outside of the State of Utah to commit, in the case of this event, to travel in person to Washington D.C. on Jan 6, 2017, to lobby their Representative for my election to President! This is an amazing burden to put on you. If you cannot take this up, do instead what I ask of my voters in Utah: To lessen the possibility of this occurrence, I ask that you vote for Hillary Clinton. If the Nation goes the way I think it will/can […lots of hopeful language here], Utah’s 6 electoral votes will not be necessary for me. If however, worse comes to worse, and the Deplorables threaten (I think McMullan could easily get away with using “Deplorables” in Utah… it would be a net positive) … then Utah would have given the great sacrifice of preventing the Presidency of DJT [more against Trump…]
tl;dr
McMullan asks supporters in Utah to vote for Clinton.
(I live in a safe-D state. If I lived in Utah, I would vote for Clinton, though I dislike her. I have financially supported both McMullan and Johnson).
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### Author:  [@Hooleehootoo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hooleehootoo)
#### Post date: [October 14, 2016, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/65 "2016-10-14T19:56:11Z")
er… McMullin.
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### Author:  [@Typo\_Negative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Typo_Negative)
#### Post date: [October 14, 2016, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/66 "2016-10-14T20:05:11Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#):
>
> Here’s CNN on the anguish of Utah Republicans in the last month of the campaign: [http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-utah-mormons-morality-dilemma-2016/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/14/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-utah-mormons-morality-dilemma-2016/index.html)
> [@](#):
>
> “It’s like choosing between getting shot or poisoned,” he said in a back hall of the Utah State Capitol building. “We know that Hillary Clinton is the worst, most horrifying and certainly lethal poison known to man. If we vote for Hillary Clinton, we will die in excruciating agony.”
This man should be sterilized for the good of humanity. No one this stupid should be allowed to breed.
Which leads me to a question. Did CNN deliberately find the dumbest person they could to get a quote from? They couldn’t find anyone with the ability to reason to weigh in?
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### Author:  [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)
#### Post date: [October 14, 2016, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/67 "2016-10-14T20:15:03Z")
> [@DSeid](#):
>
> [The “Mormons for Hillary” web ad](http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/clinton-camp-launches-mormons-for-hillary-ad-featuring-utah-gop-politicians/article/2604227?custom_click=rss). It’s pretty good and should be adapted for non-Mormons too…
I liked that! Are the words drawn entirely from her book _it Takes a Village_?
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### Author:  [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)
#### Post date: [October 15, 2016, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/68 "2016-10-15T04:13:08Z")
> [@Typo\_Negative](#):
>
> This man should be sterilized for the good of humanity. No one this stupid should be allowed to breed.
>
> Which leads me to a question. Did CNN deliberately find the dumbest person they could to get a quote from? They couldn’t find anyone with the ability to reason to weigh in?
No, I’d say that view would be typical of 90% of Republicans in Utah.
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### Author:  [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)
#### Post date: [October 15, 2016, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/69 "2016-10-15T14:12:26Z")
DHMO for President!
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### Author:  [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/70 "2016-10-18T04:16:08Z")
Because it is. [Story here](http://www.sltrib.com/news/4476877-155/presidential-update-new-poll-cements-utah).
> [@](#):
>
> A new poll — this one released Monday from Rasmussen Reports — shows a statistical tie between Republican Donald Trump (30 percent), independent Evan McMullin (29 percent) and Democrat Hillary Clinton (28 percent).
The article is interesting, and tells why one of the recent polls showed Trump much higher at 37%. The questions and the demographics (a higher percentage of Mormons in the survey) can be accounted for.
McMullin’s name recognition is rising rapidly in Utah.
> [@](#):
>
> Like the other surveys, it found that Trump and Clinton are highly unpopular in the state, while McMullin is still trying to get his name out there. He’s made some strides in that effort. The Y2 Analytics poll published Oct. 12 found that 48 percent of Utahns hadn’t heard of McMullin. The Rasmussen poll released just five days later found that only 15 percent were unaware of McMullin’s candidacy.
Utah allows the counties to determine if mail in voting is permitted and the state’s second most populous county, Utah county, deeply conservative and home to LDS church owned BYU isn’t participating in mail-in ballots, allowing McMullin more time to try to cut into Trump’s slim advantage.
A political scientist at BYU says he thought that voter turnout in Utah county would be low because of dissatisfaction with Trump but believes that it could be higher with McMullin in the race.
The more a state is tilted toward a particular party, the lower the voting rates tend to be. An example on the other side is Hawaii which is deep blue and has one of the lowest voting rates in the country.
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### Author:  [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 12:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/71 "2016-10-18T12:11:50Z")
This is Nate’s [take on it](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-were-forecasting-the-4-way-presidential-race-in-utah/).
> [@](#):
>
> Why isn’t McMullin’s probability higher? Well, for the time being he’s behind, at least based on the polling average. Polling geeks have focused on the Rasmussen Reports and Y2 Analytics poll that showed a close three-way race in Utah, but less on the YouGov and Monmouth polls that still had Trump ahead (way ahead in the case of YouGov’s poll). A simple average of the four recent polls yields a result of Trump 32 percent, Clinton 26 percent and McMullin 23 percent, putting McMullin within striking distance but also in third place with a 9-point deficit to make up in three weeks.
It looks like Nate isn’t trying that much with Utah, simply going by the average and not by the analysis in the Tribute quoted in my previous post.
He also pointed out that there are Mormons in other states (which I’ve posted a couple of time:
> [@](#):
>
> Another complication is that in cases where Trump is doing badly enough to lose Utah, he’s probably getting crushed by Clinton overall. Yes, the Mormon vote is especially important in Utah and is something of a unique factor. But there are also enough Mormons in Colorado, Nevada and Arizona to potentially swing the outcomes in those states. If Clinton’s winning Arizona — well, it’s probably a full-blown landslide and the election isn’t going to the House.
He missed the ones in Alaska, which has about the same percentage (5%) of Mormons as Arizona.
With LDS activity rates about 50% to 60%, the number of active Mormons in Arizona and Alaska would be in the 2% to 3% range in these states. It could possible have a difference.
This will be interesting to see how it goes.
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### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/72 "2016-10-18T15:14:49Z")
I notice everyone is still ignoring McMullin in Idaho. OK, it’s a small state, but McMullin’s on the ballot there and will take anything he can get. It has a fairly large Mormon population and I expect they’ve abandoned Trump to the same degree as in Utah. No one’s polling for him there, as far as I can tell. But then there are few polls in Idaho anyway.
Not that I’m a McMullin supporter, mind you. It’s just interesting to see any 3rd party candidates with a chance to take a state.
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/73 "2016-10-18T15:38:32Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#):
>
> This is Nate’s [take on it](http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-were-forecasting-the-4-way-presidential-race-in-utah/). It looks like Nate isn’t trying that much with Utah, simply going by the average and not by the analysis in the Tribute quoted in my previous post.
Well of course he’s not. Injecting conjecture like that would be the antithesis of his method.
I should also remind people, McMullin isn’t actually on the ballot in Alaska or Arizona [According to ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/Evan_McMullin) he’s only a write-in candidate in those states. He doesn’t even have that in Nevada.
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### Author:  [@mtomm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mtomm)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/74 "2016-10-18T15:39:34Z")
> [@dtilque](#):
>
> I notice everyone is still ignoring McMullin in Idaho. OK, it’s a small state, but McMullin’s on the ballot there and will take anything he can get. It has a fairly large Mormon population and I expect they’ve abandoned Trump to the same degree as in Utah. No one’s polling for him there, as far as I can tell. But then there are few polls in Idaho anyway.
>
> Not that I’m a McMullin supporter, mind you. It’s just interesting to see any 3rd party candidates with a chance to take a state.
He is getting the attention of Mormons in south east Idaho which has the highest Mormon population in the state. Of course because you can’t let a good conspiracy be wasted some think that he’s a Clinton supporter and he’s doing this to draw votes away from Trump.
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### Author:  [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/75 "2016-10-18T17:10:02Z")
> [@mtomm](#):
>
> Of course because you can’t let a good conspiracy be wasted some think that he’s a Clinton supporter and he’s doing this to draw votes away from Trump.
If they understood the way the Electoral College works, they wouldn’t think that. Taking one or two small states away from Trump will not help Clinton get over 269 EC votes, which is the only thing that counts. It might send the election to the House, but she has virtually no chance of being elected by them.
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### Author:  [@Corry\_El](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Corry_El)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/76 "2016-10-18T17:54:38Z")
> [@dtilque](#):
>
> If they understood the way the Electoral College works, they wouldn’t think that. Taking one or two small states away from Trump will not help Clinton get over 269 EC votes, which is the only thing that counts. It might send the election to the House, but she has virtually no chance of being elected by them.
It will help Clinton if the McMullin votes taken from Trump result in her winning those states, which is more likely to be the effect than McMullin actually winning them, an implausible outcome anywhere but LDS majority UT and not likely there IMO. It’s interesting to speculate about basically unpolled ID but I doubt there’s any real chance of other than a Trump victory there. In sizable LDS minority states like CO, AZ or NV though, LDS votes to McMullin could plausibly tip razor close races to Clinton. Which is one reason McMullin’s actual total will probably be less than what polls show now in UT, or what they would show in neighboring LDS minority states if he were specifically included in the polls.
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### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/77 "2016-10-18T18:10:57Z")
As I mentioned, he can’t make any effect in NV. He’s not on the ballot. And since he’s only a write-in in Arizona, pretty unlikely there too.
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### Author:  [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)
#### Post date: [October 18, 2016, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/78 "2016-10-18T23:53:19Z")
Silver probably didn’t mention Alaska for the same reason that he didn’t mention Idaho: Neither is close enough for the LDS in those states to swing the election. Alaska (unlike Idaho) _could_ still swing, but again, if it does, it’s a landslide nationwide.
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### Author:  [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)
#### Post date: [October 19, 2016, 4:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/79 "2016-10-19T04:24:21Z")
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Well of course he’s not. Injecting conjecture like that would be the antithesis of his method.
No. That’s absurd. Nate did not become Nate by simply averaging polls.
The analysis I’m referring to is given in the linked article.
> [@](#):
>
> A CBS News/YouGov poll over the weekend had him at 37 percent. That outlier is likely explained by the way the question was asked and the sample the pollster used. That survey gave respondents a choice between Trump, Clinton and “someone else.” Only if the person selected someone else were they given the options of McMullin, Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein.
>
> Also, the YouGov poll included 67 percent Mormons, when the state is about 60 percent LDS. Monson believes that sample diluted Clinton’s strength, while McMullin would likely have had more support if he was one of the original options.
Which shows a possibility of why that particular poll has a higher than average percentage for Trump.
Nate did not indicate that they had looked at those factors, and looking at factors of polls is his bread and butter.
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### Author:  [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)
#### Post date: [October 19, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-do-some-people-think-utah-may-be-in-play/762583/80 "2016-10-19T20:17:33Z")
CNN’s latest Electoral College projection has Utah redesignated as a battleground state. Baaaad news for Trump: [http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-5-october/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/19/politics/road-to-270-electoral-college-map-5-october/index.html)
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