# Why does anyone today under seventy years old smoke cigarettes? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 13, 2022, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990 "2022-03-13T20:57:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2022, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/122 "2022-07-15T13:37:22Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > It looks like the numbers are based on a poll that Gallup has done yearly, for decades. I’d suspect that draftees in Vietnam probably weren’t in the sample. > > That spike around '71 or '72 looks to only be a couple of percentage points higher than the years surrounding it; it might well be within the range of statistical error for the study. Yeah, I may be over interpreting the stats. I was trying to see if there was some correlation between social strife and smoking rates (“it bumps up again in the late 80’s. The ‘87 stock market crash, perhaps?”), but that thesis falls apart when you look at the late 90’s. It was a time of relative prosperity, but rates were climbing back up. So, you’re right that it’s probably just normal variation. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2022, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/123 "2022-07-15T14:02:36Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Pot isn’t the gateway drug to anything. Other than happiness. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2022, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/124 "2022-07-15T14:05:05Z")
I can’t disagree with that in my experience ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2022, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/125 "2022-07-15T14:17:31Z")
While smoking rates decline (typically in Western countries), enough smokers are being recruited in Asia and Africa to pick up the slack, leading to forecasts of a modest (2.4%) CAGR (compound annual growth rate) in tobacco product sales through 2030. The real growth industry is e-cigarettes/vaping, with an annual growth rate forecast to be _30%_ over the same time period. > **[E-cigarette And Vape Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By...](https://www.researchandmarkets.com/reports/4621752/e-cigarette-and-vape-market-size-share-and)** > > E-cigarette And Vape Market Size, Share & Trends Analysis Report By Product (Modular Devices, Rechargeable), By Distribution Channel (Online, Retail), By Region (APAC, North America), And Segment Forecasts, 2023 - 2030 There’s still a lot of money to be made by hooking new consumers on nicotine. Canny investors will take notice. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2022, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/126 "2022-07-15T14:23:52Z")
Twenty somethings are vaping nicotine and an alarming rate based on my observations. The perception, which might be correct, is that it’s much less harmful than smoking traditional cigarettes. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2022, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/127 "2022-07-15T17:30:03Z")
One thing is pretty clear from the chart @kenobi_65 provided: there is no obvious blip in the statistics in 1964 when the Surgeon General’s report came out, nor in the immediately following years when various public health / propaganda measures were taken to popularize the findings. So the narrow interpretation of the OP’s premise is debunked. 1964 is not and never was a watershed event for US smoking rates. We’ve been slowly sanding this down for 70 years now and are probably not too far from as low as it will go. The percentage of US folks of any age still smoking today with all the knowledge, expense, and social obstacles in their way represents some kind of hard core or hard floor: the percentage of people who are supremely addictable to nicotine and just need 1 or two hits to become lifers. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2022, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/128 "2022-07-15T22:02:32Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > One thing is pretty clear from the chart @kenobi_65 provided: there is no obvious blip in the statistics in 1964 when the Surgeon General’s report came out, nor in the immediately following years when various public health / propaganda measures were taken to popularize the findings. > > So the narrow interpretation of the OP’s premise is debunked. 1964 is not and never was a watershed event for US smoking rates. It’s probably unrealistic to expect an _immediate_ marked drop to have occurred in smoking rates as a result of the SG’s report. Arguably, it did set in motion a process whereby smoking went from being the norm to a negatively viewed habit practiced by a shrinking minority. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2022, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/129 "2022-07-15T23:09:25Z")
I suppose. I was a kid when that happened and as best I can recall the general grown-up response was “No shit, Sherlock. Honey, pass me the cig lighter.” Aided and abetted of course by the massive disinformation campaign that’s still going on. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2022, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/130 "2022-07-16T20:06:31Z")
Very likely. But it is as addictive. However vaping (and patches, and gum. and snuff, etc) are all reasons why a Ban on smoking could work, unlike prohibition. I read that a lot of people who supported Prohibition didn’t think it would ban beer, just “the hard stuff”, so my WAG is that if it had not banned beer and wine, Prohibition might have been a success. Just like the War on drugs _might_ be winnable if we excluded marijuana. People need something to turn to. My dad easily stopped smoking cigs when he switched to a pipe, then got down to two pipefuls a day. > [@LSLGuy](#): > > The percentage of US folks of any age still smoking today with all the knowledge, expense, and social obstacles in their way represents some kind of hard core or hard floor: the percentage of people who are supremely addictable to nicotine and just need 1 or two hits to become lifers. They can be switched to vaping. Look, around 40.000 Americans (it has gone down a bit, used to be 50K) die from _second hand smoke._ A switch to vaping for that die hard 10% will at least get rid of that 40K- mostly kids and seniors. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2022, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/131 "2022-07-16T20:11:46Z")
I agree it’d be nice if we reduced the number of smokers a lot closer to zero. Both for them, and for those around them. And I sorta-believe that vaping really does represent harm reduction _for current smokers who choose to adopt it_. I’d believe it a lot more if the FDA could regulate the contents of vape liquid like they do the contents of aspirin, not like they can’t regulate the contents of e.g. wheat grass supplement capsules. The problem I see most with “harm reduction” is the problem of turning, e.g. 100K smokers into 300K vapers when another 200K non-partakers take up the now not-so-much-pariah habit. Those are the folks who lose in this “substitution” program. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2022, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/132 "2022-07-16T20:18:26Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > And I sorta-believe that vaping really does represent harm reduction _for current smokers who choose to adopt it_. For what it’s worth – and this is an anecdote, but my friend just told me about this a few days ago, so it’s fresh in my mind: My friend used to smoke cigarettes; she switched to vaping a few years ago. Her mother is currently fighting lung cancer. Her mother’s oncologist, upon learning, from the mother, that my friend vapes, actually said, “I’d rather see your daughter smoking cigarettes than vaping.” (He’s apparently concerned about the variable quality of vaping fluids, as well as the perception that it’s “safe.”) ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2022, 9:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/133 "2022-07-16T21:07:53Z")
That’s certainly my take. Not that I have any data to back it up. Let’s discuss this again: “You take completely unregulated chemicals, including complex chemicals known to cause disease, that are manufactured in _China_ by gosh knows who bought and sold through gosh knows how many middlemen, then you heat these up to a high temperature, triggering gosh knows what sorts of chemical processes, then you deliberately coat your _lungs_ with the products and byproducts. Several times per day for years?” Yeah, right. You do what you want, but count me out, OK friend? Seems to me like a pretty simple soliloquy to follow. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2022, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/134 "2022-07-16T21:53:22Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > I’d believe it a lot more if the FDA could regulate the contents of vape liquid like they do the contents of aspirin, not like they can’t regulate the contents of e.g. wheat grass supplement capsules. The did regulate flavoring in vape carts. [https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-finalizes-enforcement-policy-unauthorized-flavored-cartridge-based-e-cigarettes-appeal-children](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-finalizes-enforcement-policy-unauthorized-flavored-cartridge-based-e-cigarettes-appeal-children) ---
**Author:** ![Yllaria](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yllaria/32/3452_2.png) [@Yllaria](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Yllaria)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2022, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/135 "2022-07-18T23:45:17Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > It’s interesting to see that spike into the early ‘70s. It sort of mirrors the time of the Vietnam war; would military service explain this bump? Maybe cigarettes were being provided to conscripts. Or is there another reason to explain why a gradually reducing rate shot back up? I don’t know if the war had anything to do with smoking rates, but my son started smoking while he was in the army (2007 - 2011). He did it because his supervisor was driving him nuts and if you smoked you got more breaks. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2022, 6:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/136 "2022-07-19T06:16:37Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > The fuck? There is no way that pot smokers were switching to or adding tobacco in any large numbers. I don’t have the time to list all of the ways that that’s silly but I will mention one which is that since the legalization of pot in many parts of the US, tobacco rates have continued to drop. Pot isn’t the gateway drug to anything. That’s good to know. My one issue with marijuana legalization is that I was afraid that it would lead to an increase in cigarette smoking. The fact that it apparently hasn’t is very reassuring. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2022, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/137 "2022-07-19T17:45:23Z")
On the other hand, there’s [some](https://publications.aap.org/pediatrics/article/141/5/e20173787/37930/Electronic-Cigarettes-and-Future-Marijuana-Use-A?autologincheck=redirected) [evidence](http://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7193904/) that tobacco use (notably, e-cigarettes) is associated with later use of marijuana. ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2022, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990/138 "2022-07-19T17:59:42Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > My one issue with marijuana legalization is that I was afraid that it would lead to an increase in cigarette smoking. I’m pretty impressed by the cannabis subreddits and their feelings about tobacco and alcohol. The vast majority of g to be heavy cannabis users are steadfastly against tobacco use and to just a slightly lesser extent against alcohol use. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-does-anyone-today-under-seventy-years-old-smoke-cigarettes/960990.md?page=6)