Great answers! I agree that the NBA is much more draft sensitive than the NFL. That said, it doesn’t always help. The Clippers were the perennial top drafters for years, and it never helped them at all due to incompetence at helm. And I remember one or two seasons when the Atlanta Hawks were just dripping with talent. They had five all-stars as starters (Dominique Wilkins, et al). But the problem was, there was just one ball. As a team, Atlanta was just mediocre.
Not if they can’t get somebody to block for him.
Green is an unrestricted free agent this year and more likely than not he has played this last down in green & gold. His production has dropped for the past two years and it is fair bet that Ahman has past his expiration date as a first-rate NFL running back (see Terrell Davis, et. al.). Unless Green goes unwanted by every other team, I can’t see him signing a new contract with the Packers. If Bush is somehow available at 5 the Packers will certainly take him, but the Jets almost certainly will grab him at 4 if the Texans, Saints, and Titans all pass.
Despite the fact that Houston isn’t in desperate need for a running back, I can’t see them pass up a player of Bush’s talent. Bush is a once in an decade or so talent and unless they can arrange a Herschel Walker type trade, they’d be foolish to pass him up. Domanick Davis might be trade bait for a quality veteran offensive lineman. Great o-lineman can be found in any round of the draft if you have good scouting…great running backs much more rarely.
I always figured the players are auditioning. Good players will come back (or get picked up by another (better) team). Bad players may not be back at all.
Minor nitpick: Green was never an all-pro. Many people use that term as a synonym for pro-bowler, but they actually mean different things.
After the season, (and I think after the Superbowl), the Associated Press votes players to the All-Pro team, which is only a single team for the entire NFL. So while Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Michael Vick, et al were all pro-bowlers last year, only Peyton Manning was an All-Pro.
They name the player with the most votes the “starter”, and the guy with the second most is the backup, and so on. Last year was interesting in that Peyton Manning received every single vote for the All-Pro team, so there was no All-Pro backup quarterback.
Back on topic, the non-guaranteed contracts really do play a huge factor. Mark Schlereth – the veteran OL who started on 3 Superbowl winning teams (Redskins 91 and Broncos 97 & 98) – has the perfect anecdote to illustrate this effect.
He’s had a couple dozen surgeries, and was always hurt. But he always played hurt to help the team. During the season, the owners and GM would always tell him how much they appreciated his effort and how much they loved him. But every time his contract came due, during negotiations it was always the same story: “Well, we’d love to give you the big money deal, but you’re always hurt, so this is the best we can offer.”
He shared this story during the preseason during the whole Matt Birk saga of “I’ll play hurt if you guarantee my contract through next year, or I’ll have season ending surgery.” The team chose the latter over guaranteeing a single season of their pro-bowl center’s contract. (And then Culpepper started handing out sacks like they were candy. Coincidence?)
So if a solid guy like Schlereth (or Birk) is going to get screwed over by playing hurt, imagine what the contract fate is of the guy who tanks a game.
Good points, all (which is why I love this board so much 
). Just like to add a couple more points:
The draft order reverses each round, meaning that the team with the first pick in the first round gets the last one in the second round, the first in the third, etc. So while getting the #1 pick gives them the opportunity to land a star, it may also hurt their overall depth, something a cellar-dweller absolutely does not need.
To expand a bit on the NBA comparison, while a single impact player in that league can turn a mediocre or underachieving squad into champion (witness the transformation of the San Antonio Spurs from almost the moment they got Tim Duncan), even the greatest NFL star is one of eleven men on one side of the ball. He won’t make a lousy team good, much less playoff-caliber, and absolutely not a Super Bowl contender. In fact, if the franchise fails to build around the star, everyone loses: Year after year of mediocrity, nothing but disappointment in the playoffs, and a star who’ll retire without ever having a realistic shot at the greatest prize. Does the name Barry Sanders ring a bell?
So I’m never going to worry about tanking. No shortcuts in this league.
I’m almost certain the Texans are going to trade down whether or not they go through the motion of selecting Bush. This has been standard practice for years, and in this case it’s virtually a no-brainer. Get picks, build up areas that really, really need it (how many seasons have they had that Swiss-cheese offensive line?), and give the squad a chance to build some confidence.
WHAT?!
No it doesn’t?! Remember the draft where Mike Vick was the #1 pick drafted? That pick was San Diego’s. They traded down to #5, where they picked LaDanian Tomlinson and then with the FIRST pick in the 2nd round (since they were the worst team they get the 1st pick in the 2nd round) they picked Drew Brees.
I think you’re making a mistake by assuming that the Newspapers reflect the attitude of the fans and ticket/merchandise buying public. Were a NFl team to blatantly lose games on purpose you’d see a serious backlash amongst fans. While this season you could make a reasonable fair argument for it helping the team, NFL seasons in which there is a consensus #1 pick are rare.
Rememeber a couple of things. First, sports columnists are in the business of making money and being contrarian and/or stirring debate sells papers. It’s not interesting for a guy to write a column saying a NFL team should play hard and play to win. Believe me when I tell you that had the Texans lost intentionally, those same columnists would be burying the team in the press.
Next, you have to realize that Reggie Bush has not declared himself eligible for the NFL draft. He’s only a Junior and has a year of eligibility left. It’s certainly VERY likely that he’ll be available in the draft, but not a certainty. No one thought Leinart would come back this year either. Imagine the shit-storm if a team lost games on purpose, killing themselves from a PR standpoint and fan loyalty standpoint, and then a top prospect they wanted decides to stay in school or worse yet, hold out to avoid playing for said franchise. It’ be Hiroshima for that franchise.
A NFL team would never lose on purpose for alot of reasons. In this year’s case do you really thing Domanick Davis would be willing to lie down so the team could draft his replacement? I doubt it. Does David Carr want to have a guy with almost no experience picking up a blitz as his new starting RB? Does Dom Capers want to lose a game so that team he won;t be coaching next year can get a higher pick? Is Reggie Bush certain to get the Texans a Super Bowl? Ask LaDanian Tomlinson how that’s working out.
It’ll never happen.
Absolutely 100% not true!
shakes head
The NFL draft order holds steady through each round unless teams have traded picks. The Texans will draft first in each round. Whoever wins the Super Bowl will draft last. The loser of the Super Bowl drafts next to last.
hehheh, much confusion as to how the draft works. Technically, it does snake, but not to that extreme. (And as a side note, the NBA draft only has two rounds, compared to the seven rounds in the NFL draft.)
Teams who are not involved in ties have a concrete draft position, and that position remains unchanges throughout the draft. So the Texans’ draft picks will be selected first in every round.
However, many teams tie in record, and the only tiebreaker applied is strength of schedule. That’s how we end up with the Saints drafting second, the Titans third, the Jets fourth, and the…uh…Packers?..fifth. But then we get down to the Raiders and 49ers, who are still tied after strength of schedule is applied.
Such tiebreakers are determined by a coin flip. (You may have noticed that on the ESPN crawl this week.) All teams in such a gridlock snake their picks throughout the draft. So if the 49ers win the toss, they pick 6th (and Raiders 7th) in the first round, then 7th (and Raiders 6th) in the second round, etc…
This was of note two years ago when the Giants stunk up the second half of 2003, losing the last 8 games to end up 4-12, in a four-way tie with the Chargers, Cardinals and Raiders. Strength of schedule did nothing to break the four-way tie, so after the coin tosses the Giants ended up selecting 4th. (Thus forcing the pyrrhic trade for Eli.) In the second round, however, the order was snaked and the Giants got to pick first. (Selecting Chris Snee, of course. Did anybody really think General Tom wasn’t going to draft his daughter’s baby daddy? heh.)
I’m referring to teams that don’t make the tournament. Every team in the playoffs is seeded based on what round they make it to, as the last poster explained.
Another factor is that NBA contracts are slotted by draft positions, which keeps the pay scale flatter than the NFL draft. The first few picks of the NFL draft hold out like crazy and end up getting ridiculous contracts, so it’s not a slam dunk to land a very high pick.
Another factor - it’s often the case that Heisman Trophy winners don’t do much in the NFL. They’re great in college, sure, but a goodly number of them fail to have the monster NFL careers that everyone expects. It’s more likely that that NFL star was picked in the 3rd, 4th, sometimes 5th round - there’s a ton of gems hidden in those lower rounds.
Heisman-winning QB’s rarely have good NFL careers, true, largely because the demands of the position are so different. Heisman-winning running backs are usually among the top performers in the NFL, though. If Reggie Bush stays healthy, he’ll make a real difference for Houston, assuming they don’t trade down and try to fill more than one roster hole. He doesn’t need Pro Bowl blockers, either. Matt Leinart is going to get humbled, though.
But yes, NFL drafts are more of a gamble than basketball or hockey drafts (but probably less than baseball drafts, since draft-age football players are usually much more physically mature). Not only can a single hit on a guy’s knee in a pointless practice end his career, but a lot of talented players never can make the mental adjustment from a lifetime of stardom into team play in a complex environment where everyone is just as good or even better, and it can all come to an end with a single coach’s decision. Remember the Colts agonizing over whether to draft Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf, for instance? Or Tom Brady going into the sixth round? Manning and Brady “got it”, Leaf didn’t. Or Ki-Jana Carter, who by all rights should have been a star - got his knee torn up in his first training camp and never did anything.