With all respect to China Guy’s Star Trek analogy, maybe thinking about rare paintings would be easier for you, koufax.
Why is Monet’s “Water Liliies” worth umpteen gajillion dollars? You can’t live in it. You can’t eat it, or wear it. Presumably you’d get some value from it if it were hanging on your wall… but umpteen gajillion dollars worth of value?
Probably not. Why, then, are people willing to pay so much for rare paintings?
One way to look at it is that I pay so much for it because I believe that others will pay even more, later on. So if I buy a painting for $1 million and hang on to it for a year, I think I can sell it for $2 million. I’m not worried about the fact that the painting has little intrinsic value – I know that the world will still consider rare paintings worth buying in a year.
Stocks are similar. Stocks have a certain intrinsic value: you own a percentage of a company when you own its stocks. If that company makes a profit, it may pay you dividends. Keeping the stocks means you keep the dividends - some of the profit - the company made.
But stocks are often priced far higher than they would be if people wre just buying them for dividends, just like the paintings are priced far higher than the mere value they give for being hung on the living room wall. This is the speculative value: we buy them believing that someone else will buy them for more money, later on.
How can I make money, then, if a stock is going down? Well, I could sell you the stock at today’s prices… even though I don’t own the stock. I do that by borrowing the stock, and agreeing to “pay back” the borrowed stock later on.
If the price of the stock has dropped later on, I can buy it at the lower price, pay back the guy that lent it to me, and I’ve made money! Of course, if the stock rises, I’m screwed: I still have to buy it to pay back the guy that lentme the stock, and now I’m paying more to replace the stock than I sold it for.
koufax, when you suggest that traders don’t create anything, you’re missing the point. It’s true that they don’t make furniture, or cars, or guns. But neither does a retail store. A retail store merely brings other people’s products to you, under one roof, and lets you buy them. They provide a valuable service.
So, too, does the market. Speculation in the performance of stocks and other instruments is a necessary and profitable part of the economy. Sometimes the ecocomy is doing so well that most business flourish, which means that no matter what stocks you buy, you have an excellent chance of selling them at a profit. Sometimes the economy tanks, which means that business don’t earn as much, and people begin to believe that they can’t sell their stocks at a profit.
But it’s not magic, or BS. It’s the market.