# Why evolution by 'random chance' can't exist without the supernatural **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 14, 2016, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727 "2016-12-14T22:59:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![CurtC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce73a5/32.png) [@CurtC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CurtC)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/41 "2016-12-15T04:16:07Z")
> [@Calico\_Jack](#): > > I specified “random” being used in the sense of being able to happen with no prior physical cause. > > If by random you simply mean 'unpredictable, then that’s different, but under the laws of physics everything will eventually have a predictable cause and effect, even if scientists don’t have one currently. Talking for a moment just about physics and leaving the biology aside, our current best understanding of physics is that events really do happen with no cause. Atomic decay, for example, happens without cause at a completely, actually random time. We’re pretty sure about this. There is no underlying cause that we just haven’t found yet. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 6:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/42 "2016-12-15T06:30:54Z")
Holy equivocation, Batman ! ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 6:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/43 "2016-12-15T06:40:02Z")
> [@Calico\_Jack](#): > > If nothing but the physical universe exists, and therefore in essence the universe is one giant machine _BZZZT_ Failure to show the connection implied by the “therefore”. And causality is a convenient fiction, so everything else you said is wrong, anyway. Randomness doesn’t violate the laws of physics, it’s baked into them at the core. ---
**Author:** ![MrDibble](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mrdibble/32/114_2.png) [@MrDibble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MrDibble)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/44 "2016-12-15T06:49:25Z")
And as for evolution - natural selection works whether the selection pressures are acting on chance mutation or on any of the non-mutation sources of variability. So focusing on the mutations does nothing to overturn the validity of selection itself. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 8:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/45 "2016-12-15T08:01:15Z")
> [@Calico\_Jack](#): > > But the point is, the mutation didn’t happen by pure randomness or ‘magic’, it happened due to prior physical cause and effects. > > If the evolution of the moths was a train moving north, and the mutation was a car moving east, then the mutation occurred when the car moving east fender-bendered the train moving north. > > But of course the car didn’t just appear out of the blue by randomness or ‘magic’, it was being directed on its course by a separate pre-determined set of events which intersected. You appear to be arguing against a position that nobody holds. Cause and effect exists. Nobody here is going to say ‘there’s no such thing as cause and effect, only randomness’ That argument would be nonsense. At the quantum level, there are some pretty sound arguments for uncaused effects, as well as some interesting theories on hidden causes/variables. None of this matters very much to the question of whether evolution happens or not (spoilers: it does). If you’re arguing that there must always be a cause for every effect, and that bottom-turtle cause is God, what causes him to do that? ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/46 "2016-12-15T08:11:12Z")
Reading further, you’re arguing that the universe is deterministic at every level, and therefore, everything that happens could have been predicted, given sufficient knowledge of the starting positions. Or equally, a suitably-powerful entity could have gone _boop_ and carefully poked the initial configuration of everything in the universe so that the particles and forces would deterministically result in the formation of Earth, oceans, algae, butterflies, daisies, humans, the industrial revolution and the peppered moth - the ultimate ‘trick shot’. OK, that’s an interesting argument. if any kind of true unpredictability exists, it is automatically false, but let’s assume it’s true for a moment… … a suitably-powerful entity could have gone _boop_ and carefully poked the initial configuration of everything in the universe so that the particles and forces would deterministically result in the formation of Earth, oceans, algae, butterflies, daisies, humans, the industrial revolution and the peppered moth, \*Hitler, the guinea Worm, AIDS, Ebola, Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, Charles Manson, sin, war, murder, rape, torture, The Daily Mail \*- the ultimate ‘trick shot’. Still happy with that? ---
**Author:** ![Novelty\_Bobble](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Novelty\_Bobble](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Novelty_Bobble)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 8:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/47 "2016-12-15T08:11:44Z")
Well this is all very familiar. **Calico Jack**. You are throwing complicated OP’s out there each containing myriad points and chains of logic that are either completely unsupported or tenuous at best and you seem unwilling or unable to address. My suggestion to you, pick one point to argue in detail. Go back and forth with the experts and learned amateurs on this board and from that you’ll learn where the holes are in your hypothesis…_if that is actually what you want_ As it stands it seems like you are starting from a position of a higher organising power and retrofitting everything you see in light of that. That’s not a scientific position, it is faith-based and if that is truly the case then we are wasting our time because we are talking completely different languages. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/48 "2016-12-15T08:37:47Z")
A good argument takes a small number of commonly-agreed premises, and then proceeds with a few steps of deductive logic to some conclusion. The OP takes a number of misconceptions and factually untrue statements, then follows an escher-like path, not really following any principles of logic to a conclusion that was basically asserted in the first place. For example, from the top: > [@Calico\_Jack](#): > > The notion of evolution by “random chance” actually refutes atheistic materialism, and I’ll easily explain why: The scare quotes are appropriate since “evolution by random chance” is just something creationists say; it’s actually a mischaracterization of the theory of evolution. Mutations are generally called / considered random events but they are just one input to the system and whether mutations are caused by random events or are part of a clockwork universe, say, doesn’t actually matter a damn in terms of this theory. > [@](#): > > If nothing but the physical universe exists, and therefore in essence the universe is one giant machine, then true “randomness” is nonexistent. The theory of evolution =/= physicalism > [@](#): > > Because in order for something to be truly “random”, it would need to be able to ‘just happen magically’ without any prior cause or effect. This is not what random means. And indeed our universe does appear to be random at the quantum level. > [@](#): > > Machines of course, are not truly random. A quantum computer could utilize random events. > [@](#): > > If the material world is all that exists, then this would in effect make it one giant perpetual motion machine No; the visible universe is increasing in entropy so is essentially “winding down”. Not that there’s any reason to bring up perpetual motion. …And the “argument” just continues tripping over every hurdle after that. Therefore God. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 11:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/49 "2016-12-15T11:06:44Z")
> [@Novelty\_Bobble](#): > > Well this is all very familiar. > > **Calico Jack**. You are throwing complicated OP’s out there each containing myriad points and chains of logic that are either completely unsupported or tenuous at best and you seem unwilling or unable to address. > > My suggestion to you, pick one point to argue in detail. Go back and forth with the experts and learned amateurs on this board and from that you’ll learn where the holes are in your hypothesis…_if that is actually what you want_ I’m not sure it really is what he wants. These threads are sermons - they are arguments that would work quite well (that is, they would achieve their intent) when spoken to a willing audience, a piece at a time. When they’re written down like this, in a place where the opportunity exists to back up and look at whether there _really is_ a chain of logic, and debate and challenge the facts and assertions presented, they don’t work at all. This isn’t a debate. This is the right forum for witnessing though. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [December 15, 2016, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/50 "2016-12-15T13:08:06Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > The OP takes a number of misconceptions and factually untrue statements, then follows an escher-like path, not really following any principles of logic to a conclusion that was basically asserted in the first place. Yes. The “universe is a machine” part, for instance, is a [false](http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/False_analogy) [analogy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argument_from_analogy). ---
**Author:** ![Smeghead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/f1d935/32.png) [@Smeghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smeghead)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/51 "2016-12-16T03:28:44Z")
Anyone who claims that evolution is random understands the concept so poorly it’s not worth discussing it with them. ---
**Author:** ![Mangetout](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mangetout/32/19_2.png) [@Mangetout](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mangetout)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 9:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/52 "2016-12-16T09:02:56Z")
> [@Smeghead](#): > > Anyone who claims that evolution is random understands the concept so poorly it’s not worth discussing it with them. True, you’re unlikely to get anywhere with someone starting with such a wrong view, but the audience sometimes benefits. ---
**Author:** ![aldiboronti](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9fc348/32.png) [@aldiboronti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aldiboronti)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/53 "2016-12-16T13:34:32Z")
I’m beholden to the OP. Most considerately he tells us by his second sentence that we need read no further thus saving us wasted time. My thanks to him. ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/54 "2016-12-16T14:06:38Z")
> [@Calico\_Jack](#): > > Machines of course, are not truly random. A slot machine for example may appear to be ‘random’ to a person playing it at a casino since the person can’t predict what numbers will appear, but in reality of course, the numbers which appear when a person plays the slot machine follow a pre-determined algorithm programmed into the machine. What “pre-determined algorithm” does a roulette wheel follow? Or a six deck shoe of shuffled cards? ---
**Author:** ![Chief\_Pedant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a6a055/32.png) [@Chief\_Pedant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chief_Pedant)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/55 "2016-12-16T15:00:26Z")
It seems to me your only alternative to “we don’t know” is “the supernatural.” An incomplete explanation is not a very powerful argument that a Pink Unicorn is therefore in charge. ---
**Author:** ![Doubticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e56c9b/32.png) [@Doubticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doubticus)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/56 "2016-12-16T15:29:07Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Even if (contrary to our understanding of quantum mechanics) true randomness didn’t exist, pseudorandomness is plenty “random enough” for purposes of evolution. You accept that it’s possible to roll dice, right? And even though how the dice land depends on the precise angle and momentum with which they’re thrown, and their initial orientation, and so on, and could in principle be calculated by a very good computer, for practical purposes, they’re random enough for Vegas to make tons of money. Well, mutations are random enough for evolution to work, too. Chronos stated almost exactly what I was going to post. If the dice rolls of “pseudorandomness” can’t be discerned from “true randomness” then the distinction is a pointless one. Enough variation already exists in the system to support the process of evolution. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/57 "2016-12-16T15:31:39Z")
> [@Chief\_Pedant](#): > > It seems to me your only alternative to “we don’t know” is “the supernatural.” I believe that is called the “God of the Old Navys”, or something like that. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/58 "2016-12-16T16:10:39Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > What “pre-determined algorithm” does a roulette wheel follow? Or a six deck shoe of shuffled cards? Just for the sake of shooting the shit : the roulette wheel (well, and the ball) have set dimensions, a set amount of forces apply to either of them, the laws of physics rule their every interaction. Meaning that in a perfect universe, with perfect knowledge of starting conditions down to the atomic level, no roulette wheel is random. The ball was always going to land there when it was that ball on that wheel thrown that way at that time on that spot of that planet. Same goes for the deck of cards : if you know the exact forces that apply to each card, the stickyness of the fingers, the precise point where that one finger applies leverage and so on, in theory you could math out the only possible way that shuffle would go - again, positing a universe where shit doesn’t get \*weird \*at any point. Which means it isn’t ours, btw :). ---
**Author:** ![OldOlds](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/a3d4f5/32.png) [@OldOlds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OldOlds)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/59 "2016-12-16T16:35:46Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > In a purely deterministic universe with nothing truly random. You’d be correct. Right- I am not sure if I am misreading the OP, but it seems to have a premise that the universe as it is today was a foregone conclusion, and so we just need to work backwards to see how it was preordained? Or maybe I’m just lost…? ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [December 16, 2016, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727/60 "2016-12-16T17:01:29Z")
> [@OldOlds](#): > > Right- I am not sure if I am misreading the OP, but it seems to have a premise that the universe as it is today was a foregone conclusion, and so we just need to work backwards to see how it was preordained? Or maybe I’m just lost…? That’d be the crowning achievement of computational science, wouldn’t it ? Trace the path of every atom from the Big Bang onwards (and from there, to the end of time as we know it) ? We’ll need just a few more PS4’s hooked up to the quantum neural network to get there of course 🙂 [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-evolution-by-random-chance-cant-exist-without-the-supernatural/774727.md?page=4)