# Why has crime declined so much over the past 20 years? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 15, 2014, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492 "2014-05-15T01:52:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![themuna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e9bcb4/32.png) [@themuna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/themuna)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/41 "2014-05-16T16:06:47Z")
Well there was a spike in crime about 20 years so this could be the natural ebb and flow following the “Crack era” and the onset of the war on drugs. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/42 "2014-05-16T16:13:07Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > Xbox. Crime in Los Santos has exploded in just the past seven or eight months, along with an untold number of vehicles. I’ve seen it firsthand. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/43 "2014-05-16T16:55:46Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > “Correlation doesn’t prove causation” was originally a useful warning against ignoring the possibility of confounding variables. But its become a sort of anti-science buzz word, a lazy way to handwave away any study. A strong correlation does in fact, prove two things are casually linked, either directly to each other or each to a third variable. Correlation does not explain causation. It strongly points out that there is something that needs further investigation and explanation. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/44 "2014-05-16T17:21:25Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > People keep ignoring that these increases and decreases in violent crime occur across nations. So you are contending that there was fudging by authorities in all countries to increase crime then they all decided to fudge numbers to show a decrease in crime. And Farin’s earlier “-We incarcerate so many people that we keep the criminals behind bars instead of on the streets.” is very obviously American-centric. The lead theory seems to explain crime rates in multiple jurisdictions that have a wide variety of justice and political systems. Perhaps my view US-centric. However most nations in the developed world never had the levels of crime that the US did and does simply because most of them have: 1. Stricter controls on their populace 2. Smaller populations (Comparing the crime in Norway with a population of 5 million to a nation with more than 300 million, is simply ludicrous) 3. Looser restrictions on drug use,sales and prostitution. 4. Other cultural factors which would tend to lessen crime (lower divorce rates, more intact families, crimes being handled by clans or within social groups rather than involving the authorities,etc) Again, you can’t compare what happens in most other countries to what occurs in the US simply because most other countries have far lower populations than that of the US. The nations which are comparable (Nigeria, Brazil,Indonesia) or greater (India and China) in population all have **reported** crime rates either greater than or equal that of the US. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/45 "2014-05-16T18:03:35Z")
That really isn’t convincing. There are similar ebb and flow of crime despite these differences you mention, yet there HAS to be different reasons for those fluctuations because the US is so unique. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/46 "2014-05-16T18:06:35Z")
> [@nevadaexile](#): > > snip… Why don’t you think about stopping while you’re behind. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/47 "2014-05-16T18:10:41Z")
> [@nevadaexile](#): > > I would advise that the OP go down to his or her local police station and see how many outstanding crimes that their police force has and then ask if crime is really decreasing or if the authorities are manipulating data to make it appear that crime is decreasing. Why would they do that - and get their budgets cut? In any case the national statistics are from the FBI who have no incentive to make things look better. As far as I know in the Midwestern city that I live near: > [@](#): > > Last year, there were a record number of homicides for the entire county. How do you know this if the cops are lying? San Jose had a spike in crime last year, correlated to the fact that a lot of cops left to go to other nearby towns with better pay and better pensions. The city government would have had an incentive to cover this up - yet the statistics showed the increase. Are they stupid? > [@](#): > > White collar frauds,especially identity theft and Medicare frauds are on the increase Not what people worry about - unless someone has a fear of accountants breaking into their home. > [@](#): > > I see that the DOJ is reporting that fewer crimes are being committed. However, that appears to indicate that fewer crimes are being _ **reported** _ more than it does that there is a decrease in crime. Why would people not report crime? Reporting is easier than ever thanks to the internet and cellphones. I can assure you that every issue you mention existed 50 years ago also. I remember that someone my father knew talked about buying a TV that fell off a truck back then. You may be falling victim to the principle of availability - which is that rates of things which you estimate depends on how often you’ve heard about them. Most people think that the murder rate is higher than the suicide rate when the opposite is true, because murders get covered more in the media. So, if you hear a lot about crime, you may think the crime rate is high even if it isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/48 "2014-05-16T18:23:48Z")
> [@Labrador\_Deceiver](#): > > Why don’t you think about stopping while you’re behind. Since I didn’t ask for your opinion and I don’t need your affirmation, I’ll post whenever I see fit. If you have a problem with that…then you might want to send an email to someone who gives a crap about what you think. Anyway…. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/49 "2014-05-16T18:38:45Z")
I’d thank progressives. We still have war and extreme poverty, but overall humanity is making progress. It’s a constant struggle with conservatism, but slowly and surely, progressives make change. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/50 "2014-05-16T18:42:03Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Why would they do that - and get their budgets cut? In any case the national statistics are from the FBI who have no incentive to make things look better. > > As far as I know in the Midwestern city that I live near: > > How do you know this if the cops are lying? San Jose had a spike in crime last year, correlated to the fact that a lot of cops left to go to other nearby towns with better pay and better pensions. The city government would have had an incentive to cover this up - yet the statistics showed the increase. Are they stupid? Because you can’t really hide homicides,can you? Other crimes ( assaults, larcenies,etc) can be placed in differing categories to give the appearance that fewer crimes are occurring when the opposite is the case. Increases in crime are rarely rewarded; decreases in crime are. Also, few cities,especially those seeking to attract people will advertise that they are experiencing a spike in crime. That does little to bring new residents who might be leaving where they live currently because of crime. Nor would it interest new businesses in coming to your city if its police department(s) aren’t seen to be effective And, BTW, the DOJ’s statistics come from crimes reported to them by local authorities. If that data is skewed or changed, then numbers come out to be lower. > [@Voyager](#): > > Not what people worry about - unless someone has a fear of accountants breaking into their home. You are aware that white collar crime causes far greater damages to a society than any other sort of crime,right? After all, the housing bubble/banking collapse destroy far more lives than any single of collective group of violent criminal acts in US history. > [@Voyager](#): > > Why would people not report crime? Reporting is easier than ever thanks to the internet and cellphones. Reporting may be easier (itself, a loaded term) but that doesn’t mean that it happens more. Here are several scenarios where people do not report offenses against them: 1. When they believe or know that a family member or close friend has committed the crime 2. When they also are committing an offense or offenses and they fear arrest if they report the crime. 3. When they consider their losses to be too insignificant to file a report 4. When they don’t believe that the police will be able apprehend the offender(s) 5. When they have fears (genuine or imagined) that they might face retaliation for reporting the crime. > [@Voyager](#): > > I can assure you that every issue you mention existed 50 years ago also. I remember that someone my father knew talked about buying a TV that fell off a truck back then. Meaning what,exactly? Pretty certain that someone in Eastern Europe couldn’t hack into your bank account 50 years ago. Or that drug dealers could make an excellent living selling prescription drugs from their home. Or that homes in nicer neighborhoods were having aluminum siding and other metal recyclables being stolen from them and pawned for cash. > [@Voyager](#): > > You may be falling victim to the principle of availability - which is that rates of things which you estimate depends on how often you’ve heard about them. Most people think that the murder rate is higher than the suicide rate when the opposite is true, because murders get covered more in the media. So, if you hear a lot about crime, you may think the crime rate is high even if it isn’t. Again…I would invite you to go down to your local police station and ask them about unsolved crimes. Or better…call your local newspaper’s crimebeat reporter and ask them about how much crime is unsolved in your city or town. Or even better…talk with an insurance investigator about how often they are paying out claims for theft and damage and how that compares or contrasts with the numbers of arrests which are made from cases that arise from those claims. The numbers would be disheartening to say the least. Those are hard numbers which, unlike statistics, really can’t be manipulated to make them appear to better than they are. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/51 "2014-05-16T18:47:05Z")
> [@nevadaexile](#): > > Since I didn’t ask for your opinion and I don’t need your affirmation, I’ll post whenever I see fit. If you have a problem with that…then you might want to send an email to someone who gives a crap about what you think. > > Anyway…. You may not care, and that’s fine. So far, you’ve suggested a police conspiracy, with no evidence whatsoever to support this inane idea, solely based on the fact that you still see crime near you, sometimes. Nobody is claiming that crime has been totally eliminated, so this line of thinking is nonsensical. You’ve also suggested that we can’t look at other countries unless they are the same size as the US, demonstrating that you don’t understand the meaning of the word “rate”. Nobody is comparing total numbers between two countries of dissimilar size. In short, nothing you have posted in this thread has made any sense at all. Hence, my suggestion. ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/52 "2014-05-16T18:54:30Z")
[QUOTE=nevadaexile] Or even better…talk with an insurance investigator about how often they are paying out claims for theft and damage and how that compares or contrasts with the numbers of arrests which are made from cases that arise from those claims. The numbers would be disheartening to say the least. Those are hard numbers which, unlike statistics, really can’t be manipulated to make them appear to better than they are. [/QUOTE] Please provide us with these numbers. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/53 "2014-05-16T18:55:38Z")
> [@Labrador\_Deceiver](#): > > You may not care, and that’s fine. So far, you’ve suggested a police conspiracy, with no evidence whatsoever to support this inane idea, solely based on the fact that you still see crime near you, sometimes. Nobody is claiming that crime has been totally eliminated, so this line of thinking is nonsensical. > > You’ve also suggested that we can’t look at other countries unless they are the same size as the US, demonstrating that you don’t understand the meaning of the word “rate”. Nobody is comparing total numbers between two countries of dissimilar size. > > In short, nothing you have posted in this thread has made any sense at all. Hence, my suggestion. As much as I would like to engage in a useless Internet argument with you…I’ll pass. I don’t see any point in validating your comments. If you don’t think that what I say makes any sense to you…so what? Again…I didn’t ask for your opinions. ---
**Author:** ![nevadaexile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/eb8c5e/32.png) [@nevadaexile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nevadaexile)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/54 "2014-05-16T18:56:46Z")
> [@Labrador\_Deceiver](#): > > Please provide us with these numbers. > > Thanks. Please include my entire quote next time. thanks so much:( ---
**Author:** ![Labrador\_Deceiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7c8e57/32.png) [@Labrador\_Deceiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Labrador_Deceiver)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 6:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/55 "2014-05-16T18:59:15Z")
What? Why? I’m asking you to provide the numbers that you claim would be “disheartening”. Why would I quote your entire post? ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492/56 "2014-05-16T19:08:05Z")
> [@nevadaexile](#): > > Because you can’t really hide homicides,can you? Other crimes ( assaults, larcenies,etc) can be placed in differing categories to give the appearance that fewer crimes are occurring when the opposite is the case. Increases in crime are rarely rewarded; decreases in crime are. And all these categories get reported. > [@](#): > > Also, few cities,especially those seeking to attract people will advertise that they are experiencing a spike in crime. That does little to bring new residents who might be leaving where they live currently because of crime. Nor would it interest new businesses in coming to your city if its police department(s) aren’t seen to be effective As I mentioned, the increase in crime in San Jose was reported. This was an extreme case, since unlike most cases the increase could be directly attributable to the actions of the city government. > [@](#): > > And, BTW, the DOJ’s statistics come from crimes reported to them by local authorities. If that data is skewed or changed, then numbers come out to be lower. Which is why I mentioned that the DOJ has no incentive to minimize the numbers - and they are smart enough to figure out if the localities are under-reporting. There would be discrepancies in the rates for one thing. Plus a change of local government would be an incentive for the new guy to find that the old guy lied about the statistics. > [@](#): > > You are aware that white collar crime causes far greater damages to a society than any other sort of crime,right? After all, the housing bubble/banking collapse destroy far more lives than any single of collective group of violent criminal acts in US history. But people are less worried about it. No one is buying guns to go after bankers, mores the pity. > [@](#): > > Reporting may be easier (itself, a loaded term) but that doesn’t mean that it happens more. > > Here are several scenarios where people do not report offenses against them: > > 1. When they believe or know that a family member or close friend has committed the crime > 2. When they also are committing an offense or offenses and they fear arrest if they report the crime. > 3. When they consider their losses to be too insignificant to file a report > 4. When they don’t believe that the police will be able apprehend the offender(s) > 5. When they have fears (genuine or imagined) that they might face retaliation for reporting the crime. Why is this any different from what it was 20, 30 or 40 years ago? > [@](#): > > Pretty certain that someone in Eastern Europe couldn’t hack into your bank account 50 years ago. Or that drug dealers could make an excellent living selling prescription drugs from their home. Or that homes in nicer neighborhoods were having aluminum siding and other metal recyclables being stolen from them and pawned for cash. There are some new crimes, but there are some old crimes that have diminished. Typical embezzlement, quite common in crime fiction anyhow, is much harder to do today because of computer controls. People carry less money so mugging is less profitable. Metal theft is increased because of increased commodity prices. But it sure gets reported for insurance purposes. We have a big problem with thieves taking copper from traffic signals - but that gets heavily covered, and everyone knows about it. > [@](#): > > Again…I would invite you to go down to your local police station and ask them about unsolved crimes. Or better…call your local newspaper’s crimebeat reporter and ask them about how much crime is unsolved in your city or town. Big deal. I’m from New York, I know all about unsolved crimes. When my back car window got smashed I knew it was never going to get solved - but I reported it anyway. And it was very easy - go online and fill out a form. We’re not talking about closure rates. we’re talking about crime rates. I have no idea how closure rates have changed - but if I think back to crimes I personally knew about 50 years ago, I can’t think of any which got solved. Anyhow, given the number of people in prison at least a few crimes are getting solved. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-crime-declined-so-much-over-the-past-20-years/688492.md?page=2)