# Why has the mile record stopped improving? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [April 25, 2015, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522 "2015-04-25T16:57:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/1 "2015-04-25T16:57:04Z")
I see that the world record for running the mile has remained the same since 1999. If you look back before that, it was being chipped away for a long time. Is there any theory about what happened? [Mile record progression](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mile_run_world_record_progression) ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/2 "2015-04-25T17:13:26Z")
There haven’t been many records since the late 90’s in any distance. Look at the 1000, 1500, 3000, 5000, and 10000 meter races - very few records have been set since 2000. One possible answer could be better and more emphasis on drug testing. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/3 "2015-04-25T17:14:44Z")
Maybe fewer races are run at a mile distance anymore (vs. 1500 meters)? ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/4 "2015-04-25T17:29:43Z")
> [@John\_DiFool](#): > > Maybe fewer races are run at a mile distance anymore (vs. 1500 meters)? The current 1500 meter record was set in 1998. The mile record was set in 1999. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/5 "2015-04-25T18:39:17Z")
Could it be we’ve run up against human limits due to evolution, at least for recent generations? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/6 "2015-04-25T18:49:52Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Could it be we’ve run up against human limits due to evolution, at least for recent generations? I don’t believe so, I think, as **Telemark** posted, that drug testing is a big factor. Another factor is that _racing_ is not done as much, it’s running for the win(and paycheck) resulting in a virtual jog for 800-1000m then a sprint for the finish. [Here’s a list of every sub-4](http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_mileok.htm). The fastest in 2014 was a 3:48, 51st on the list. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/7 "2015-04-25T19:10:54Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > I don’t believe so, I think, as **Telemark** posted, that drug testing is a big factor. > > Another factor is that _racing_ is not done as much, it’s running for the win(and paycheck) resulting in a virtual jog for 800-1000m then a sprint for the finish. > > [Here’s a list of every sub-4](http://www.alltime-athletics.com/m_mileok.htm). The fastest in 2014 was a 3:48, 51st on the list. #21 on that list is from 2014. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/8 "2015-04-25T19:13:55Z")
> [@Snarky\_Kong](#): > > #21 on that list is from 2014. Thanks. Just spotted another at #29 (3:47). Eyes getting old. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/9 "2015-04-25T20:24:30Z")
Another possibility might be that tracks tend to be built more with sprinters in mind. This was certainly the case in 1996, at the expense of the 5K/10K runners. It could also be that not that many runners specialize in it, which is what is needed to break the existing record. ---
**Author:** ![Musicat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/musicat/32/20189_2.png) [@Musicat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Musicat)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/10 "2015-04-25T21:30:29Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > Another factor is that _racing_ is not done as much, it’s running for the win(and paycheck) resulting in a virtual jog for 800-1000m then a sprint for the finish. You think that concept might not be the best for the overall time in spite of conventional knowledge? Maybe runners should start faster? > [@That Don Guy](#): > > Another possibility might be that tracks tend to be built more with sprinters in mind. This was certainly the case in 1996, at the expense of the 5K/10K runners. How are tracks built differently for sprinters than longer-distance runners? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2015, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/11 "2015-04-25T23:01:18Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > You think that concept might not be the best for the overall time in spite of conventional knowledge? Maybe runners should start faster? > How are tracks built differently for sprinters than longer-distance runners? The most efficient and fastest way to run a distance race is even pace. There is a range but it’s quite narrow, about 5 seconds per mile. So someone aiming for 4:00 could run the first half in 2:05-1:55 and still hit his goal. Too slow and you can’t run fast enough to make up the time without running into “booty-lock”, Same thing with starting too fast, fatigue poisons build up to fast and interfere with muscle contractions. (To put it simply) A hard track is best for sprinting. A bouncier track has some energy return for distance running plus it absorbs some of the impact. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2015, 12:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/12 "2015-04-26T00:38:59Z")
The other factor is that Hicham El Guerrouj was a bit of a freak. After Steve Cram ran 3:46.32 in 1985 it took 8 years before Noureddine Morceli ran 3:44.39 and only one race has been quicker since. That is El Guerrouj’s race another 6 years later. There are only 10 quicker times than Cram’s. Seven are by Hicham El Guerrouj and one by the second place getter in the record race. Unlike swimming it isn’t as if there are any high-tech improvements that can be made to running equipment. ---
**Author:** ![MichaelEmouse](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/michaelemouse/32/101_2.png) [@MichaelEmouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MichaelEmouse)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2015, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/13 "2015-04-26T01:10:16Z")
Diminishing returns. If one mile run improvements kept the pace they have through the 20th century, we’d eventually be running it in negative time. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2015, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/14 "2015-04-26T01:18:43Z")
> [@running\_coach](#): > > The most efficient and fastest way to run a distance race is even pace. There is a range but it’s quite narrow, about 5 seconds per mile. So someone aiming for 4:00 could run the first half in 2:05-1:55 and still hit his goal. I screwed up. It should be 1:57.5-2:02.5. ---
**Author:** ![don\_t\_ask](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@don\_t\_ask](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/don_t_ask)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2015, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/15 "2015-04-26T01:21:14Z")
> [@MichaelEmouse](#): > > Diminishing returns. If one mile run improvements kept the pace they have through the 20th century, we’d eventually be running it in negative time. But if they finished before the gun even went off how we would be able to check for a false start? ---
**Author:** ![crypto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/b3f665/32.png) [@crypto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crypto)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2015, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/16 "2015-04-27T00:06:31Z")
I think the more interesting question would be, “what is the fastest a mile could EVER be run by a human?” There has to be a limit. Physically, unless humans start to fly, I think it is safe to say that 2:30 will never be reached. But what about 3 minutes? Personally, without science (aka PED’s), I don’t think anyone will ever break 3:30. But perhaps the 3:40 mark is the wall? ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2019, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/17 "2019-03-05T03:21:45Z")
This weekend the world indoor mile record was broken by 1.5 seconds, dropping it to 3:47.01. > **[Kejelcha Smashes Indoor Mile Record, Celebrates With a Dance](https://www.runnersworld.com/news/a26612540/yomif-kejelcha-breaks-indoor-mile-world-record/)** > > The 21-year-old Ethiopian track star claims the record after narrowly missing it in February. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2019, 4:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/18 "2019-03-05T04:02:47Z")
There was no test for EPO until 2000. But that’s probably just a coincidence. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2019, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/19 "2019-03-05T16:50:30Z")
> [@Musicat](#): > > Could it be we’ve run up against human limits due to evolution, at least for recent generations? That’s the assumption here (both articles claim 3:39 as the fastest possible mile). > **[The fastest possible mile](https://gravityandlevity.wordpress.com/2009/04/22/the-fastest-possible-mile/)** > > Anyone who has ever tried to get in better shape knows that there is a law of diminishing returns for exercise.  The harder you work, the better you get.  But the better you are, the harder you hav… > **[Runner's Web and Triathlete's Web, a Running, Track and Field and Triathlon...](https://runnersweb.com/running/rw_news_frameset.html?https:%2F%2Frunnersweb.com%2Frunning%2Fnews%2Frw_news_20051104_RRN_Limits.html)** > > Runners Web and Triathlete's Web - Running & Triathlon. The Runner's Web (RunnersWeb.com) is an Ottawa, Ontario based running and triathlon resource site, the Runner's Web is not associated with the Runner's Web UK site which refuses to stop using... ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [March 5, 2019, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522/20 "2019-03-05T17:15:16Z")
Let’s say that there’s a normal distribution for the time it takes a human to run a mile. Every race is a sample of that distribution. Early on, we’d expect to see a rapid decrease in the fastest time ever observed, as we begin to sample the low end of the distribution. This decrease would slow over time (after you see a 90th percentile case, the next record can only come when you run across a 91st percentile), but the decrease would never actually stop. There’s probably other factors going on, but since a slowdown in breaking records is expected from even this pathetically simple model, it’s not clear that other factors are needed to explain the observed slowdown. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-has-the-mile-record-stopped-improving/718522.md?page=2)