# Why hasn't the media rubbed our noses in COVID deaths? It might be the thing that saves us **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [November 27, 2020, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555 "2020-11-27T05:43:42Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/145 "2020-12-04T16:53:54Z")
When you say ‘this is worse than that’, what are you basing that on? Analysis you’ve done of hospital data? ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/146 "2020-12-04T16:55:22Z")
Are you kidding? ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/147 "2020-12-04T16:56:30Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > If people would just do what they’re supposed to do, a lot of the surge wouldn’t exist. But the single biggest factor in the spread of COVID has been the politicization of the response, and while I realize that this is not supposed to be a political thread, there is simply no way around it. The politicization of COVID is responsible for COVID. This is not just a political statement but a public health reality. And I blame one group of people for the current state of affairs. In the context of worldwide data, in every kind of country imaginable, that’s just a bizarre assessment. Just bizarre. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/148 "2020-12-04T16:57:19Z")
I am not in the least bit kidding. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/149 "2020-12-04T16:59:48Z")
If I have to demonstrate that this is worse caseload than a heavy flu season, I’m afraid I don’t find value in conversation with you. Good day. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/150 "2020-12-04T17:03:23Z")
I didn’t ask for a demonstration. I just wanted to know if you had looked at data yourself, or if you were just going on what you’d heard. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/151 "2020-12-04T17:06:37Z")
Gosh, is this the first time you’ve heard about comparing covid to a heavy flu season? Ok, I’ll type up a little report for you. Be right back… ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 5:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/152 "2020-12-04T17:11:06Z")
The reason I asked is that I didn’t know if you might be in a similar situation I’m in, which is that I’ve not at all done any data analysis on my own but am a very heavy reader of the news. And I’ve read both stories about hospitals being overrun, which I do not doubt, and about hospitals in places with a lot of cases at the moment that still have (more or less usual, for the time year) capacity available, which I also do not doubt. Just wondering if you also had considered all such stories. You did seem to have something to teach, when it comes to how hospitals work, or at least be well read in the matter. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/153 "2020-12-04T17:39:37Z")
That’s been true for almost all of human history. So what? ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/154 "2020-12-04T18:45:46Z")
Really now? Here’s you analyzing the data from last flu season: > [@US excess deaths in 2020](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-excess-deaths-in-2020/920183/23): > > From a total-death standpoint, weeks 1 through 7 look not terribly bad, though still 738 per weeks on average higher than the average of the prior six years. The five weeks after that get pretty bad, though – and interestingly, the twelve weeks before look pretty terrible. You appear to have a relatively mild bit of excess – but still excess, no doubt at that, over the average, even if actually lower in number than three of those years – for the first seven weeks of 2020, with some pretty serious looking damage surrounding it. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/155 "2020-12-04T18:57:07Z")
I’d forgotten about that! I think that was from before I had a strong sense of what to make of some of this stuff. And maybe before the sheer number of reports and stories, from countless different places, started to get overwhelming. I did just come across this study from Germany that looks pretty well done and is at least thematically related to what we’ve been talking about (though the context is Germany and not the US, of course). They come to some conclusions that I think might make you uncomfortable, given the argument you seem to be making. [https://www.initiative-qualitaetsmedizin.de/covid-19-pandemie](https://www.initiative-qualitaetsmedizin.de/covid-19-pandemie) ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/156 "2020-12-04T19:43:25Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > Maybe because you don’t really know anything about hospital capacity? Off season hospitals may be running close to 90%capacity, they are often strained during heavy flu seasons. This is worse than that. People can talk about how we should be more prepared but it’s not feasible to always be ready for a massive pandemic. Healthcare eats up enough money regularly that having significantly higher extra capacity just isn’t going to be financed. That goes for both public and private systems. What do you make of this data from the HHS? It gives national estimates of inpatient beds occupied at 70% and ICU beds at 60%. Does that mesh with what you were describing? (You’re right, I don’t know much about this, so I would need help putting those numbers in context.) > **[HHS Protect Public Data Hub](https://public-data-hub-dhhs.hub.arcgis.com)** > > Discover, analyze and download data from HHS Protect Public Data Hub. Download in CSV, KML, Zip, GeoJSON, GeoTIFF or PNG. Find API links for GeoServices, WMS, and WFS. Analyze with charts and thematic maps. Take the next step and create StoryMaps and... ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 8:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/157 "2020-12-04T20:03:35Z")
I’ll let that be your project. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/158 "2020-12-04T20:10:32Z")
You really don’t have any convincing reason I should believe your earlier claims, do you? And you really did get the ideas from someone else, didn’t you, as opposed to looking at data on your own? Look, I don’t care, you might be right. Or there might be capacity available that is normal this time of year, and others might be right. It doesn’t really interest me one way or the other, because I think the effect in the worst case is still marginal, not the reason for immediate abject panic, as those who exaggerate this thing would have you believe. But whether I care or not if you’re right, I can certainly tell that if you are you wouldn’t have got there on your own. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 10:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/159 "2020-12-04T22:19:30Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Right, which is good, but you need to slow down the rate of infection; otherwise you still have a surge. Why do we need to slow the rate of infection after the vulnerable are inoculated? Everybody I know who got it experienced mild flu systems at the worst. > [@asahi](#): > > Sources please. Sources for what? If you’re talking about the efficacy of the vaccine you’re welcome to look them up yourself. All the vaccines under review have been on the news. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2020, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/160 "2020-12-04T22:25:13Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > Lol, why in the world do you think that back of the envelope is of any use whatsoever? My fuses keep blowing but when I average all the houses on my block there should be plenty of capacity?!? Exactly. A lot of those 6000 hospitals _are_ tiny. They likely don’t have much (if anything) in the way of ICU support, and if they get a serious COVID case, it’s likely that they are going to be referring or transporting that patient to the nearest bigger hospital. Example: a good friend of mine lives in Shawano, Wisconsin, which is about 40 miles northwest of Green Bay. Shawano has about 9000 residents, and it’s the biggest city in its county; it’s pretty typical of rural Wisconsin. [Shawano has a hospital](https://www.thedacare.org/Hospitals-and-Clinics/thedacare-medical-center-shawano/Amenities-and-Environment.aspx), which has 25 beds. [It is a “Level IV” trauma center, which means that they have an emergency room, and](https://www.ahd.com/free_profile/521346/ThedaCare_Medical_Center-_Shawano/Shawano/Wisconsin/) can evaluate patients who need to be transferred elsewhere for a higher level of care – that “elsewhere” likely means to the facility’s parent hospital in Neenah (50 miles away), or maybe to Green Bay (40 miles away). It does not appear that that hospital has an ICU. It’s probably pretty typical of local hospitals in smaller towns across the U.S. I would suspect that that hospital has had few COVID deaths, simply because anyone in the Shawano area who’s been sick enough with COVID to need ICU hospitalization probably wouldn’t have stayed at that hospital for very long – they would have been transferred to a bigger regional hospital. ---
**Author:** ![FigNorton](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fignorton/32/5619_2.png) [@FigNorton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FigNorton)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2020, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/161 "2020-12-05T01:32:00Z")
Right. And after me saying that, he still asks me to muse on the national average hospital occupancy. I mean, come on. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2020, 3:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/162 "2020-12-05T03:55:58Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > I’ll try this again: you can build the facilities - it won’t matter if you don’t have the manpower. It’s great that we can move people from one hospital to the next, or even one state to the next, but that is not really feasible. In the real world, when you are dealing with exponential growth, the virus surges faster than what the system is equipped to handle. This is simply not true. In NYC they moved people to 5 other states, brought in a ship and built a portable medical facility. That’s as real world as it gets. We haven’t begun to stress the logistical system we have available. My state is already setting up a couple of [mobile medical units](https://kqennewsradio.com/2020/12/04/new-mobile-medical-unit-arrives-in-douglas-county/) in case things go south. It’s not like its a secret when the numbers go up. We have military hospitals, veteran hospitals, university hospitals etc… It’s not rocket science to transport people to any of these. We have the National Guard activated to assist and we have Military cargo aircraft that can be converted to medical transport with 24 hrs notice. [These were sent to NYC during their crisis.](https://www.airforcemag.com/air-force-medical-personnel-integrate-into-nyc-hospitals-for-coronavirus-response/) ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2020, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/163 "2020-12-05T03:59:29Z")
> [@FigNorton](#): > > Right. And after me saying that, he still asks me to muse on the national average hospital occupancy. I mean, come on. [ICU units per capita by country.](https://www.forbes.com/sites/niallmccarthy/2020/03/12/the-countries-with-the-most-critical-care-beds-per-capita-infographic/?sh=bcbda47f864a) ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [December 5, 2020, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555/164 "2020-12-05T04:03:58Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > This is simply not true. In NYC they moved people to 5 other states, brought in a ship and built a portable medical facility. That’s as real world as it gets. We haven’t begun to stress the logistical system we have available. Define “stress the logistical system” when you need to bring in one of only two dedicated medical ships in the US navy to manage a medical crisis and that covers just one city (granted the biggest city) and your state is setting up mobile medical units to deal with the load. I think the point is that when you need to go to these extra measures it is a sign the system is stressed and if those get overwhelmed…what next? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-media-rubbed-our-noses-in-covid-deaths-it-might-be-the-thing-that-saves-us/926555.md?page=9)