I provided a cite up-thread where Germany responded so well to the pandemic that many there do not believe it is real.
Yet here, with people like you opposing mitigation measures, we are in a huge mess.
We have recently hit 3,000 deaths per day due to it. More than 9/11…every day.
So, what are YOU arguing for? What do YOU think is the proper response?
[quote=“Whack-a-Mole, post:182, topic:926555, full:true”]
It seems to me @Magiver has a notion that if, on paper, you have a capacity of “X” then as long as you are below that capacity all is well.[/quote]
it’s a pandemic. What other metric do you realistically expect in a crisis then to be ahead of capacity?
My entire working career has been in logistics. I have a pretty good idea of what’s involved.
You are not displaying that here.
Really…you aren’t.
You seem to be dumping total US capacity into a bucket and then dividing across needed resources nation-wide.
If you are the expert you claim to be I am pretty sure you would know why that is bullshit.
Yes, that’s exactly what I’m doing. I watch our medical copters cross over to the next state all the time on FlightAware because a line drawn on a map doesn’t mean anything logistically. I personally know someone whose child was airlifted 3 states away because it was the preferred place of treatment. 1 phone call and a plane was taxiing up within an hour. The process is routine as charters go.
I gave NYC as an example of that. They moved patients to 5 other states in real time because a Hospital had an unforeseen emergency. Logistically it was a simple thing to do. When they needed extra medical facilities they coordinated a ship and a mobile medical unit at the Jarvis center. When they needed ventilators they got ventilators.
Do you think your state has been sitting idly by waiting for the vaccine fairy to drop by?
Every time there’s a major emergency we move assets to them whether it’s supplies, power company trucks or medical personnel.
So, what happens when that national bucket is full, and there’s still more patients? I don’t know how close we are to that now, or if we’ll actually reach that point, but hospitalizations are still increasing dramatically in most states – and, if the prophesied increases due to Thanksgiving travel and gatherings come to pass, it’ll be far worse in a few weeks.
It worked in New York in March and April because other states weren’t yet in dire straits – your logistics model isn’t going to work when every ICU bed in the nation is occupied.
Iowa’s governor is a Trump Slurper. We only have about 3 million people but we’ve had 2,600+ deaths from Covid-19.
““The University of Iowa hospital reached a peak of 37 COVID-19 inpatients in April, but by Thanksgiving, it had 90,” Godfrey wrote. “That number may not seem overwhelming until you consider that COVID-19 patients require dozens of staff and that many spend weeks or months in hospital care. To meet the demand, administrators have had to reschedule hundreds of nonessential surgeries and converted multiple wards into COVID-19 units. Doctors told me that they’re already short on ICU beds, and are having to decide which critically ill patients receive one… Worst of all, health-care workers are sapped.””
COVID-19: Iowa sets another record for deaths, has a third straight day of almost 3,000 new cases - Little Village
Death Panels were a bugaboo/false claim for both Obama’s 2 terms and Hilary’s attempt. They never happened. Now under Trump Doctors have been and are being forced to decide who gets treated.
You have yet to answer why North Dakota hasn’t availed themselves of this and has instead asked their medical workers to work even if infected.
Your anecdote doesn’t trump that.
And again…what would Governor @Magiver do since this started?
Last I looked, we’ve got all but two states in the ‘red’ zone. We already had a nationwide surge in cases before Thanksgiving. We’re almost certainly going to get another surge on top of the one we already had. And with Christmas and New Year’s coming and behavior largely unchanged, we’re almost certainly going to get an even bigger surge on top of that supersurge we’re dealing with now.
In some cases, sure, we can move people around. But not all places have the same logistics and numerous individuals are going to be adversely impacted by this trend even as many others are somehow saved through added capacity.
That’s actually a great question. And why is Navajo nation experiencing a crisis right now?
Magiver’s somewhat right in that we can reallocate resources but nobody here was ever denying that fact. What we’re trying to say is that in a lot of dots on the map, that reallocation will be too little, too late, or simply not feasible, even as it is perfectly feasible on a large scale in many places throughout the country.
And as it has been said, the places that are least prepared to deal with surges are the ones where they have stomped their feet and held mask burnings (being figurative here of course).
You’re asking a question answered in the same sentence.
It worked in New York because the assets existed and were engaged in a straightforward manner. there was no “moon landing” quality of planning. The medical transport system is not a secret known only to 3rd level Masons.
Please explain why you think it’s difficult to shift assets around as needed when the system is already in place. Be specific.
After that please explain why we will need a large scale shift in assets. We are literally 10 days away from receiving the vaccine. Once the vulnerable receive it the medical strain on our medical system is going to fall dramatically. This is because the vast majority of people who get the virus will not be impacted medically.by it. The prophesied increases of infected won’t result in the same ratio of deaths if the vulnerable are inoculated.
It’s a really simple question, and I thought I made it pretty clear in my earlier post. Where are you planning on transporting these critically ill patients when there are few, if any, remaining ICU facilities in the U.S. that are able to take them?
“The system is already in place” is the transportation system, as you have described dozens of times. Fine, that exists. That does not mean that there will be a hospital with an ICU bed, and enough healthcare workers, ready or willing to accept that patient at the end of the transport.
Also, we may be able to start vaccinating in 10 days, but it’s likely to be well into January (if not later) before all high-risk Americans, and essential healthcare workers, have had a chance to be vaccinated. (Plus, as I understand it, it takes several weeks after vaccination for immunity to develop.)
IIRC the vaccination is a two-step process with jabs spaced about three weeks apart.
Certainly correct me if wrong. I 100% admit I forget the details (not to mention which vaccine we are talking about since I think more than one is coming online now-ish). Not sure if they work differently from each other.
Yes; as I understand it, both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines require two doses, 3 to 4 weeks apart. (I believe that the Oxford vaccine is also a two-dose vaccine.)
I’ve already answered that. I would coordinate my state’s needs with the Federal Government. The Dakotas are too far away for me to know the lay of the land but if you asked me about my own state I can tell you where the assets are and a general outline of what would be done
If you’re asking what I would do from day 1 (state and national) I would have isolated nursing homes on a grand scale. I think it would have been a much better use of money to focus on these people in the first place. I would have treated the facilities as isolation units using military medical knowledge and assets. I would use National Guard units to implement it. Basically a hospital isolation unit re-applied to nursing facilities.
What would you do.
You have totally skipped about 95% of your population. Given how viruses are spread your list of what you would do gets you almost nowhere.
I would follow CDC guidelines. Maybe I would do more if I thought the Trump admin was interfering.
And as for the Dakotas…I thought it was your position that we could dump all the ICU beds into a bucket and then use medical transport to move patients around to fill the ample ICU beds you say we have.
You’re asking a what if question. IF we run out of ICU space nationally.
We have military hospitals that would be a logical location for transport as well as a place to add portable medical facilities. .Military bases generally have lots of real estate to work with and those located on airbases can accommodate mass transport of patients.
What keeps showing up in your answers is how to deal with a surge of critically ill patients and NOTHING about mitigating the number of critically ill patients.
Your method is to let everyone get sick, a lot will die…deal with it.
95% of the population isn’t at significant medical risk of the virus. Everybody I know who got the virus described it as a mild flu.
It’s not HIV or Eboli.
Yes, I am, but I think that, given current trends on infections and hospitalizations, it’s a reasonable what-if question to ask.
And, you are assuming we absolutely will not, which means you aren’t answering my question (or feeling that it’s not going to happen, and thus, not worth answering). Yes, we have military bases and military hospitals – but even then, there’s a finite supply, and not just for hospitals, but for medical professionals (doctors, nurses, respiratory therapists, etc.) who are skilled in dealing with patients in respiratory distress. You can build temporary hospitals all day long, but those need the right kinds of people to staff them, or we’re still SOL.
My suggested method from day 1 is to immediately protect the people who are likely to die from it and use the same mitigating mask protocols.
More lives would have been saved if we focused assets on those who needed it instead of relying on a feel good financial bandaid that hinged on people’s behavior.