# Why hasn't the Neighborhood Watch shooter been arrested? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [March 12, 2012, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504 "2012-03-12T00:53:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 177
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3521 "2012-04-10T13:13:00Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > As I recall her comment on stalking, she acknowledged it was a reach… She said he “certainly” could be charged with stalking. Saying something is certain is a bit different from saying it is a reach. And obviously she was wrong, as several posters pointed out. > [@](#): > > I don’t recall her claiming Martin was an excellent student, but am open to seeing the quote. [QUOTE=Stoid] …a dead 17 year old boy who was an excellent student with a bright future and no record of any kind. [/QUOTE] [Cite.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=14895637&postcount=1437) _:shrugs:_ As if it were going to make any difference to her. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Barrett\_Bonden](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/5e9695/32.png) [@Barrett\_Bonden](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barrett_Bonden)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3522 "2012-04-10T13:18:14Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Your memory is faulty. It was exactly the opposite - **you with the face** was (and is) wrong, and everybody who was skeptical of the accusations in the Duke rape case was right. Crystal Magnum was lying. I missed the thread the first time around, so I visited it for the first time last night. **Shodan** , I think you are misunderstanding the argument in that thread. The question was whether the relative probability of an alleged crime having occurred could be accurately estimated based on existing statistics about that type of crime. In that thread, **you with the face** and **monstro** correctly insisted that the relative probability of an alleged event having occurred could not be accurately assessed based on the cited statistics. In that thread, **Bricker’s** assertion to the contrary was incorrect. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3523 "2012-04-10T13:41:40Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > My point is not his weight, in other words. My point is the unjustified reliance on reports from early sources – of which this current report may also be one. It’s clear that whatever your point is, it’s gone into a desperate, bizarro-world place. “Unjustified reliance on reports” is one of the silliest things I’ve read on this board in a long time. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3524 "2012-04-10T14:02:31Z")
> [@Barrett\_Bonden](#): > > I missed the thread the first time around, so I visited it for the first time last night. **Shodan** , I think you are misunderstanding the argument in that thread. > > The question was whether the relative probability of an alleged crime having occurred could be accurately estimated based on existing statistics about that type of crime. In that thread, **you with the face** and **monstro** correctly insisted that the relative probability of an alleged event having occurred could not be accurately assessed based on the cited statistics. In that thread, **Bricker’s** assertion to the contrary was incorrect. OK. Someone comes to you with a hole in his leg about a quarter inch in diameter. It’s through-and-through. Other people claim he was shot in the leg with a .22. He claims he was hit by a meteorite. Do you think there is no way to determine which account is more likely to be true, based merely on the fact that meteorite hits are rare but shootings much less so? Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3525 "2012-04-10T14:05:27Z")
> [@Barrett\_Bonden](#): > > I missed the thread the first time around, so I visited it for the first time last night. **Shodan** , I think you are misunderstanding the argument in that thread. > > The question was whether the relative probability of an alleged crime having occurred could be accurately estimated based on existing statistics about that type of crime. In that thread, **you with the face** and **monstro** correctly insisted that the relative probability of an alleged event having occurred could not be accurately assessed based on the cited statistics. In that thread, **Bricker’s** assertion to the contrary was incorrect. I don’t understand why that isn’t true. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3526 "2012-04-10T14:13:18Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > OK. Someone comes to you with a hole in his leg about a quarter inch in diameter. It’s through-and-through. > > Other people claim he was shot in the leg with a .22. He claims he was hit by a meteorite. > > Do you think there is no way to determine which account is more likely to be true, based merely on the fact that meteorite hits are rare but shootings much less so? While this scenario is not comparable in anyway to what was discussed in that aforementioned thread (here’s a hint: interracial rape is nothing like meteorite injuries), how is this argument any different than positing that Zimmerman’s story is fishy because unarmed people are less likely to instigate violent attacks against armed people than the other way around? If you really put stock in this probablistic theory of yours, you should find it too difficult to believe in Zimmerman’s innocence. Do you? ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3527 "2012-04-10T14:19:24Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > While this scenario is not comparable in anyway to what was discussed in that aforementioned thread (here’s a hint: interracial rape is nothing like meteorite injuries), how is this argument any different than positing that Zimmerman’s story is fishy because unarmed people are less likely to instigate violent attacks against armed people than the other way around? > > If you really put stock in this probablistic theory of yours, you should find it too difficult to believe in Zimmerman’s innocence. Do you? Can’t speak for Shodan, but if I were to learn that Martin knew Zimmerman was armed when he attacked, I’d be very surprised. In other words, I agree with that statement of likelihood – what I don’t agree with is the definitive statement that Martin knew Zimmerman was armed. But yes: if Martin knew Zimmerman was armed, I would regard Zimmerman’s story as fishier. For JUST THE REASON that supposedly makes me an idiot when applied to Crystal Magnum. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3528 "2012-04-10T14:20:25Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > It’s clear that whatever your point is, it’s gone into a desperate, bizarro-world place. “Unjustified reliance on reports” is one of the silliest things I’ve read on this board in a long time. Were you wrong about Zimmerman’s weight? ---
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3529 "2012-04-10T14:24:13Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Were you wrong about Zimmerman’s weight? How can we possibly know if she was wrong at this early juncture!?!?! ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3530 "2012-04-10T14:32:36Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Were you wrong about Zimmerman’s weight? I don’t know if I was wrong. The only way for me to conclusively know that he is not 250 lbs is for me to weigh him myself, preferably on a scale that’s recently been calibrated and within a year of its warranty. Alternatively, I could refer to media reports that now put his weight at around 190 lbs, but how do I know these reports are accurate? “Unjustified reliance on reports” is supposedly what got me in trouble the last time. Everything is a gamble. Shit, I don’t even know if his name is really George Zimmerman. It could be Jorges Zimmerman. And Trayvon Martin’s real name might be Tray-tray Martinez. We just don’t know. ---
**Author:** ![Barrett\_Bonden](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/5e9695/32.png) [@Barrett\_Bonden](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barrett_Bonden)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3531 "2012-04-10T14:37:14Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > Your memory is faulty. It was exactly the opposite - **you with the face** was (and is) wrong, and everybody who was skeptical of the accusations in the Duke rape case was right. Crystal Magnum was lying. > [@Barrett\_Bonden](#): > > I missed the thread the first time around, so I visited it for the first time last night. **Shodan** , I think you are misunderstanding the argument in that thread. > > The question was whether the relative probability of an alleged crime having occurred could be accurately estimated based on existing statistics about that type of crime. In that thread, **you with the face** and **monstro** correctly insisted that the relative probability of an alleged event having occurred could not be accurately assessed based on the cited statistics. In that thread, **Bricker’s** assertion to the contrary was incorrect. > [@Shodan](#): > > OK. Someone comes to you with a hole in his leg about a quarter inch in diameter. It’s through-and-through. > > Other people claim he was shot in the leg with a .22. He claims he was hit by a meteorite. > > Do you think there is no way to determine which account is more likely to be true, based merely on the fact that meteorite hits are rare but shootings much less so? **Shodan** (and **Bricker** ), I think it would be useful to have a separate thread primer on how statistics may be appropriately used to illuminate a single data point. In fact, I think folks mentioned doing so in the referenced Pit thread, although I don’t know whether that actually happened. I’m not going to do that here because I think this thread has sufficient material already without adding another topic. 🙂 My point above was just that I don’t think you ( **Shodan** ) remembered the subject of the argument in that particular thread. That clarification was already setting things off in a tangential direction, so I apologize for that. ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3532 "2012-04-10T14:37:24Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > For JUST THE REASON that supposedly makes me an idiot when applied to Crystal Magnum. The basis for us criticizing you was the tortuous and magnificently retarded logic you and others espoused to call CM a lying whore. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3533 "2012-04-10T14:46:07Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > I don’t know if I was wrong. The only way for me to conclusively know that he is not 250 lbs is for me to weigh him myself, preferably on a scale that’s recently been calibrated and within a year of its warranty. Alternatively, I could refer to media reports that now put his weight at around 190 lbs, but how do I know these reports are accurate? “Unjustified reliance on reports” is supposedly what got me in trouble the last time. Everything is a gamble. > > Shit, I don’t even know if his name is really George Zimmerman. It could be Jorges Zimmerman. And Trayvon Martin’s real name might be Tray-tray Martinez. We just don’t know. I’d be very happy if you adopted this view henceforth. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3534 "2012-04-10T14:47:07Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > The basis for us criticizing you was the tortuous and magnificently retarded logic you and others espoused to call CM a lying whore. What, if any, opinion do you now have concerning Crystal’s truthfulness about her claim of being attacked that evening? ---
**Author:** ![you\_with\_the\_face](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/ecccb3/32.png) [@you\_with\_the\_face](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/you_with_the_face)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3535 "2012-04-10T14:50:15Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’d be very happy if you adopted this view henceforth. Sorry to disappoint you by not doing so. But maybe someone else in this thread is willing to indulge your feelings in this manner. I am not the one. ---
**Author:** ![Steophan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steophan/32/9595_2.png) [@Steophan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steophan)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3536 "2012-04-10T14:57:54Z")
**you with the face** , you are constantly making the same sort of assumptions you accuse **Bricker** of making. You assume that because Zimmerman was armed, he must have gone out looking for someone to shoot. You assume that, because he’s white (even assuming he does identify as white, something I’ve not seen confirmed) that the police department must be on his side, and that he must have had a racial motivation for his actions. Just as in the previous discussion, the likelihood of interracial rape should not affect the credibility of her statement, the likelihood of any of the things I’ve mentioned should not affect the credibility of Zimmerman’s statement. There’s no way you can say that we should accept Crystal Magnum’s statement that she was the victim of a crime as credible on the surface, then turn round and say we can’t accept Zimmerman’s statement of exactly the same thing. Note, of course, that saying something is credible does not mean one believes it to be true, it means that one believes it’s _possible_ that it’s true. ---
**Author:** ![Ellen\_Cherry](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellen_cherry/32/3600_2.png) [@Ellen\_Cherry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ellen_Cherry)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3537 "2012-04-10T14:59:27Z")
This thread has become entirely too focused on sniping analysis of each other’s logic and presentation of opinions. Let’s henceforth confine remarks to the _content_ of the case, and get off each other’s asses, please. ---
**Author:** ![Stoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/stoid/32/272_2.png) [@Stoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stoid)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3538 "2012-04-10T15:00:44Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’m going to step up here on **Stoid** ’s behalf with a couple of comments. Thanks, Bricker! > [@](#): > > 1. As I recall her comment on stalking, she acknowledged it was a reach, but framed it as, “If it were necessary to charge him with some other crime as a predicate, here’s one that might fly…” I disagreed with her, but she’s not defending tooth-and-nail the factual guilt of Zimmerman for stalking. (Stoid, if I’m in error, please forgive me). She was simply saying that if the prosecution wanted to hang something on him, then this was a possibility. Yep, pretty much. I mentioned it a couple of times, but I’ve never promoted it as a slam dunk. > [@](#): > > 1. I don’t recall her claiming Martin was an excellent student, but am open to seeing the quote. I read that he was an A-B student, I mentioned it. Has that been disproved? If so, ok. I’m not wedded to it. Not wedded to anything, really, except a ridiculously thorough investigation of the killing itself AND what the fuck happened afterwards that led to all this… ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3539 "2012-04-10T15:07:11Z")
nm Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [April 10, 2012, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504/3540 "2012-04-10T15:07:28Z")
> [@you\_with\_the\_face](#): > > Sorry to disappoint you by not doing so. > > But maybe someone else in this thread is willing to indulge your feelings in this manner. I am not the one. Well, then, back to my original question: were you wrong about Zimmerman’s weight? If you say that we don’t know until we have more complete and final reports, I agree with the sentiment – but you’ve made clear that you don’t. I don’t see how you can hide behind “we don’t know” when it pleases you and leap on rank speculation when it pleases you. So: were you wrong about Zimmerman’s weight? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504.md?page=176) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/why-hasnt-the-neighborhood-watch-shooter-been-arrested/615504.md?page=178)